Ivo H. Daalder

The world is much less safe and far more uncertain, because the world’s premiere power has abandoned its position. That is basis of The Empty Throne, Ivo Daalder and James Lindsay’s new book. It is a stomach-churning recounting of all the many instances where Donald Trump ignored protocol, betrayed America’s’ friends, sidled up to authoritarians, destroyed relationships, and undermined the rule of law. The book is focused purely on the foreign policy aspects of the Administration after less than two years, and that is more than enough.

The three pillars of foreign policy are security alliances, open trade, and support for democracy, human rights and the rule of law. Trump has trampled all of them, with nothing whatever to show for it. Instead, the authors say, America’s partners have gone on without it, negotiating new multilateral trade treaties that don’t include it and which the US will find impossible to join later because it had no input. On the political front, China has stepped up to take over the top dog spot, without having to fire a shot, even a verbal one. Incredibly, global polls show more people have faith in President for Life Xi Jinping than in Donald Trump. The leader of the free world is not.

For Trump, every treaty is the worst in history. Everyone is getting rich while the USA is getting poorer. Nothing could be further from the truth, of course. American policy has been a tightly constructed plan to take advantage of other countries by allowing them to bloom. At the same time, their success allows the US not to have to physically take control or occupy, saving it a fortune. The American Empire is based on increasing wealth, mostly its own. And it has worked well for decades. By leading, not “winning”. Unlike the friends of other nations, The Empty Throne says, US allies have been “multipliers of American power and values.” Greasing the skids has been massively successful. Now, no one knows what to expect. But it can’t be as good.

Instead of a worldwide trading system, Trump insists on bilateral trade deals, presumably 200 of them, a massive undertaking that could consume decades. Yet not a single country offered to start talks on such a deal throughout 2017. They know they are much better off with a global marketplace than a bilateral one. So for the great dealmaker, there is not a single deal to show off, not in trade and not in politics. Iran, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan and North Korea have agreed to nothing with Donald Trump’s Administration. The US has not “won” anything, anywhere. And it is no longer leading. “Trump’s policies emphasized theatrics. They ignored fundamentals,” the authors say.

They point out that Trump took out a full page ad in the New York Times in 1987, laying out all the same foreign policy criticisms he still employs. He hasn’t changed in 30 years. His is an Administration of One. He needs no advisors; he knows everything himself. His own staff, departments and military are given no more respect than Mexico or Australia, and far less than Russia or Saudi Arabia. Trump’s world is lean and mean. And crass. He used his speaking time at the UN General Assembly to threaten to demolish another country, the very thing America set up the UN to avoid.

The world has no idea what to make of it, and seems to be just watching. The authors cite Napoleon : “Never interrupt your enemy while he’s making a mistake,” and so the world is calm while Donald Trump rampages over America’s friends while sidling up to its foes.

The chaos at the Department of State is embarrassing. Ambassadors around the world are quitting for lack of support and direction, when there is not outright contradiction, making their jobs impossible. The Secretary of State found out he was fired – on Twitter - after most of the world knew. Trump claims his actions have made allies “like us better” and “respect us more”. But Pew Research found that respect for American leadership is plunging around the world, and most of all with its allies. According to polls, the US has fallen to third place in global leadership, just barely ahead of Russia. This is no one’s idea of greater respect – except for Trump.

The authors wisely avoid speculation. They do not venture down the road of the dollar no longer being the reserve currency, or how China might choose to reshape the world in its own image. But they are dumfounded that Trump would simply abandon the throne – without a deal to make up for it. As Jia Qingguo said, “The US is not losing leadership. You’re giving it up. You’re not even selling it.” China can’t believe its great luck.

David Wineberg… (mer)