Publisher consolidations?

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Publisher consolidations?

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1VisibleGhost
Redigerat: nov 4, 2011, 3:50 am

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/fd33d9be-0409-11e1-864e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1ch...

I'm not much interested in the News Corp buy of Thomas Nelson but there's a paragraph in there that interested me. "The deal is the largest in the book publishing world for at least five years, and could signal a new round of mergers and acquisitions as the industry faces stagnant sales and fewer bookstores."

Stagnant industries tend to consolidate- remember the oil companies when oil went to $9 a barrel? News Corp already had Zondervan. Does it seem plausible more publishing mergers are on the way after the big ones in the earlier part of the decade?

ETA-That link goes to a registration page. Here's one with the bare bones announcement.
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9QNG3001.htm

2pgmcc
nov 4, 2011, 7:48 am

As noted in the article, the sales of religious books, and bibles in particular, have not suffered decline in the same way as other books. This looks like an example of News Corp acquiring a more robust revenue stream rather than a general industry trend.

Of course, the whole industry is still in a state of transition and the morphology of the book market vis-á-vis physical/electronic books and sales channels will not settle down for some time. During the transition we are certain to see new A&M activity as cost accountants and financiers try to squeeze the last remaining drop of monetary value out of publishing.

3VisibleGhost
nov 4, 2011, 12:25 pm

2- It is indeed interesting times in the publishing world. I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility that Amazon ends up with one of the big houses.

4timspalding
Redigerat: nov 4, 2011, 12:58 pm

>3 VisibleGhost:

I think they become one of the big houses soon. I don't see them buying one. Amazon buys when someone else has got a big lead in an industry, and they have already failed to acquire it themselves—take Zappos. They don't buy competitors they are actually crushing. Besides, it would only make the long-term issue ever more clear. Right now Amazon is a competitor with publishers, but publishers can console themselves that it's not their main gig, and imagine that Amazon can never succeed at something they don't know. They're wrong, but they can console themselves that way.

One factor that plays into all of this, incidentally, is simply that Amazon is being forced for the first time to pay taxes in New York. Prior to this, Amazon avoided anything permanent in the capital of books for the simple reason that having an office or employees there would create tax nexus. Now they're free to get in with both feet. I think it's very dangerous for publishing but, as a business decision, it was definitely the right one.

5steve.clason
nov 4, 2011, 1:17 pm

4> "that Amazon is being forced for the first time to pay taxes in New York."

That's interesting. If I understand this right, Amazon was forced to begin paying sales tax in New York in an event unrelated to their publishing business, but that removed a financial constraint that had kept them from putting boots on the ground in the heart of the publishing world.

If I have it right, talk about your "unintended consequences".

6VisibleGhost
nov 4, 2011, 2:08 pm

>4 timspalding:

Yea, Amazon likely becomes a big house either way. I have it penciled in as a done deal by 2014. The path Amazon is taking to become the 'Book Dominator' is oddly touching in a macabre way. Jeff has a soft spot for books- it's where he started. Apple doesn't give a damn about books- they're too low margin. Google wants them as information. But Jeff likes the book industry and thrives on the razor-thin margin model.