Climate change issues, prevention, adaptation 10

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Climate change issues, prevention, adaptation 10

jun 2, 6:49 am

What is the Iran-Taliban water conflict all about?
Shabnam von Hein | 1 June 2023

Iran and Afghanistan are locked in a long-standing dispute over the sharing of water from the Helmand River. Clashes broke out recently along the border.

...The Helmand is Afghanistan's longest river. It originates near Kabul in the western Hindu Kush mountain range and flows in a southwesterly direction through desert areas for a total of about 1,150 kilometers (715 miles) before emptying into Lake Hamun, which straddles the Afghanistan-Iran border.

Lake Hamun is the largest freshwater lake in Iran.

It used to be one of the world's largest wetlands, straddling 4,000 square kilometers (1,600 square miles) between Iran and Afghanistan, fed by the Helmand.

But it has since dried up, a trend experts blame on drought and the impact of dams and water controls.

The lake is of great importance for the regional environment and economy...

jun 3, 9:21 am

A big El Niño is looming. Here’s what it means for our weather.
How warm water in the Pacific shapes storms, droughts, and record heat around the world.
Umair Irfan May 30, 2023

...“A warming El Niño is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory,” said Petteri Taalas, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization, in a statement* earlier this month. “This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared.”

We know the next El Niño won’t be cheap. The one in 1997-98, one of the most powerful in history, led to $5.7 trillion in income losses in countries around the world according to a study published earlier this month in the journal Science. That’s much higher than prior estimates of as much as $96 billion. It was also blamed for contributing to 23,000 deaths as storms and floods amped up in its wake...

...El Niño typically picks up over the summer and shows its strongest effects over the winter in the Northern Hemisphere. Right now, forecasts drawing on ocean buoys, sensors, satellite measurements, and computer models show that a strong one is brewing as the eastern Pacific Ocean steadily warms up just below its surface.

...These forecasts, however, buy precious time to prepare. While El Niño can push some disasters to greater extremes, tools like early warning systems, disaster shelters, evacuations, and climate-resilient building codes can keep the human toll in check. It’s going to be a hot summer, but it doesn’t have to be a deadly one.

* Global temperatures set to reach new records in next five years
World Meteorological Organization | 17 May 2023
Press Release Number: 17052023

Key points
The average global temperature in 2022 was about 1.15°C above the 1850-1900 average. The cooling influence of La Niña conditions over much of the past three years temporarily reined in the longer-term warming trend. But La Niña ended in March 2023 and an El Niño is forecast to develop in the coming months. Typically, El Niño increases global temperatures in the year after it develops – in this case this would be 2024.

The annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2023 and 2027 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.8°C higher than the 1850-1900 average. This is used as a baseline because it was before the emission of greenhouse gases from human and industrial activities.

There is a 98% chance of at least one in the next five years beating the temperature record set in 2016, when there was an exceptionally strong El Niño.

The chance of the five-year mean for 2023-2027 being higher than the last five years is also 98%.

Arctic warming is disproportionately high. Compared to the 1991-2020 average, the temperature anomaly is predicted to be more than three times as large as the global mean anomaly when averaged over the next five northern hemisphere extended winters.

Predicted precipitation patterns for the May to September 2023-2027 average, compared to the 1991-2020 average, suggest increased rainfall in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and reduced rainfall for this season over the Amazon and parts of Australia.

jun 3, 12:52 pm

Oh, yikes... "Seven of the eight global-scale safe and just ESBs that we quantified have already been crossed" Looks like worst transgressions of Earth system boundaries are happening in area from SE Asia-India-Middle East-Eastern Europe... (Fig 3 map)

Johan-Rockstram 2023. Safe and just Earth system boundaries. Nature 31 May 2023.

The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked..., yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently.... Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)... The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.

...Climate warming beyond 1.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, which has already been exceeded9, carries a moderate likelihood of triggering tipping elements, such as the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet or localized abrupt thawing of the boreal permafrost

...stabilizing at or below a safe ESB of 1.5 °C warming avoids the most severe climate impacts on humans and other species, reinforcing the 1.5 °C guardrail set in the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.

For the biosphere, we identify safe ESBs for two complementary measures of biodiversity:
(1) the area of largely intact natural ecosystems and
(2) the functional integrity of all ecosystems, including urban and agricultural ecosystems (Table 1)...

For fresh water, we propose two spatially defined safe ESBs based on subglobal boundaries that can be aggregated to the global scale: (1) a flow alteration ESB for surface water and (2) a drawdown ESB for groundwater (Table 1)....

We set safe ESBs for agricultural nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) surpluses for minimizing eutrophication of surface water and terrestrial ecosystems due to runoff, leaching and atmospheric N deposition via ammonia and nitrogen oxide emissions (Table 1). We propose safe global-scale ESBs of 61 (35–84) Tg N per year for agricultural nitrogen surplus72 and 4.5–9.0 Tg P per year for cropland soil phosphorus surplus73,74 (medium confidence in Extended Data Table 1)...

Aerosol pollution
For aerosols, we propose a safe ESB defined by the interhemispheric difference in aerosol optical depth (AOD) (Table 1) based on evidence that a rising North/South Hemisphere difference can trigger regional-scale tipping points and cause substantial adverse effects on regional hydrological cycles, in addition to the existing PB of 0.25–0.50 AOD based on regional considerations27...

Novel entities and other pollutants
We acknowledge the risks to Earth system stability and human well-being from other air and water pollutants, for which there are already well-accepted guidelines88, and the emerging threats from novel entities, new forms of existing substances and modified life forms that are geologically or evolutionarily novel and could have large-scale unwanted geophysical or biological impacts on the Earth system27,97... microplastics, ‘forever chemicals’, antibiotics, radioactive waste, heavy metals or other emerging contaminants...

Current state
Seven of the eight global-scale safe and just ESBs that we quantified have already been crossed (Fig. 1 and Table 1) ...

jun 9, 4:32 pm

Climate Crisis Is on Track to Push One-Third of Humanity Out of Its Most Livable Environment
Abrahm Lustgarten | June 6, 2023

Climate change is remapping where humans can exist on the planet. As optimum conditions shift away from the equator and toward the poles, more than 600 million people have already been stranded outside of a crucial environmental niche that scientists say best supports life. By late this century, ... 3 to 6 billion people, or between a third and a half of humanity, could be trapped outside of that zone, facing extreme heat, food scarcity and higher death rates, unless emissions are sharply curtailed or mass migration is accommodated...

Timothy M. Lenton et al. 2023. Quantifying the human cost of global warming. Nature Sustainability 22 May 2023.

The costs of climate change are often estimated in monetary terms, but this raises ethical issues. Here we express them in terms of numbers of people left outside the ‘human climate niche’—defined as the historically highly conserved distribution of relative human population density with respect to mean annual temperature. We show that climate change has already put ~9% of people (more than 600 million) outside this niche. By end-of-century (2080–2100), current policies leading to around 2.7 °C global warming could leave one-third (22–39%) of people outside the niche. Reducing global warming from 2.7 to 1.5 °C results in a ~5-fold decrease in the population exposed to unprecedented heat (mean annual temperature 29 °C or more). The lifetime emissions of ~3.5 global average citizens today (or ~1.2 average US citizens) expose one future person to unprecedented heat by end-of-century. That person comes from a place where emissions today are around half of the global average. These results highlight the need for more decisive policy action to limit the human costs and inequities of climate change.

Redigerat: jun 10, 1:43 pm

Normally I don't swear, but this is totally crazy.
Global temperature is 0.9°C higher than normal.
This is the highest anomaly ever and we are about 1.5 month away from the annual global peak surface air temperature.

It takes a few months for ocean heat records to translate to heat records in the atmosphere.
And El Niño has only just started.
And the 11 year solar cycle is not at its maximum yet.
Expect a lot more record shattering in the next 1.5 year!

- Leon Simons @LeonSimons8 | 4:21 AM · Jun 10, 2023:
Mission: To understand & protect the home planet. Innovator, climate researcher, social entrepreneur. Board member Club of Rome NL

Brian McNoldy @BMcNoldy | 6:58 AM · Jun 10, 2023:
Senior Research Associate at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School. Hurricanes, climatology, & sea level rise... mostly.

I know there are a million people sharing temperature anomaly charts and maps lately, but there's a good reason for that. This is totally bonkers and people who look at this stuff routinely can't believe their eyes. Something very weird is happening.

Temperature graphs

jun 10, 1:59 pm

>5 margd: Hunkering down and investing in an ice maker.

jun 10, 6:25 pm

We made Corsi- Rosenthal air filter box in case more smoke... Used a ca 1970 GE box fan from a summer job before college. Factory job was SO enlightening for middle class girl... Don't make fans like that anymore-- this one has spot for oil!

Redigerat: jun 10, 7:37 pm

Det här meddelandet har tagits bort av dess författare.

Redigerat: jun 11, 5:48 am

Atlantic temperature increase might stall currents* warming northern Europe? What will August temps look like?

AMOC. "The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is part of a global thermohaline circulation in the oceans and is the zonally integrated component of surface and deep currents in the Atlantic Ocean. It is characterized by a northward flow of warm, salty water in the upper layers of the Atlantic, and a southward flow of colder, deep waters."

Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson | 12:37 PM · Jun 10, 2023:
Retired professor of mathematics and computer science...

Another day, another record for the North Atlantic. Everything is happening so fast, it's hard to get a sense of the enormity of these anomalies, let alone their consequences.

Graph, N Atlantic surface temps, 1982-2023

Redigerat: jun 11, 6:40 am

Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson | 1:15 PM · Jun 10, 2023:

And here we have it -- the global 2 meter temperature anomalies, through today, with 2023 in red.
What's happening right now with global temperatures leaves me speechless (but not numberless).

4.81 sigma. 1-in-1,300,000.

You go.

Graph, Global 2m Temp anomalies, 1979-2023

Global temp anomaly map, 10 June 2023 (See Antarctica!* Also, Canada, Siberia, China)

Kamil Slowikowski, PhD slowkow | 9:38 PM · Jun 10, 2023:
Computational biologist at @MGH_RI . PhD @HarvardDBMI . I study genomics data to learn what the cells in our body are doing in health and disease.

Thanks for sharing the data. Here is a Javascript version of your figure that shows the latest data automatically.

* Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson | 8:16 AM · Jun 10, 2023:

While North Atlantic sea surface temperatures hit new highs daily, ...Antarctica, with record low sea ice extent.

Extent is currently 3.82σ below the 1991-2020 mean, or 1-in-15,000. This makes the 51st consecutive day of record low sea ice extent.

Graph, Antarctic Sea Ice anomaly, 1991-2023

jun 11, 7:35 am

Dr Thomas Smith 🔥🌏 @DrTELS 2:08 PM · Apr 24, 2023:
Associate Prof @LSEGeography env change & sustainability 🌏 wildfire emissions & models @UKFDRS 🔥 tropical peatlands @Inter_PEAT

This is so unusual. That's a *huge* amount of energy being transferred to the atmosphere. Expect extreme temperature and storm records. Just the top few metres of our oceans store as much energy as the entirety of our atmosphere. I'm very concerned for later this year into 2024.

Quote Tweet
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson · Apr 24
Breaking News!
After spiking upwards to 21.04°C on April 23, global 60S-60N sea surface temperatures reached a new all-time high of 4.69σ above the 1982-2011 mean of 20.34°C, making the current SST anomaly a 1-in-740,000 event.
Will SST reach 5σ? Stay tuned.

jun 11, 10:06 am

Canada's wildfires expose the climate change 'spiral of silence'
Zahra Hirji and Kira Bindrim, Bloomberg News Jun 11, 2023

...When I talk to people about the scale of the climate emergency and what’s at stake — that crops are failing and states are going to fail and civilizations are going to fail — I always feel guilty, among other feelings, because it’s like being the bearer of such horrible news.

The Yale Program on Climate Communications talks about the spiral of silence, meaning people don’t talk about climate because people don’t talk about climate. The fact that people aren’t talking about it makes it seem like they’re not worried about it. Well, they’re acting normal, so it must be fine. The implication is: Just by leading your normal life, you are actually contributing to mass climate denial because people are looking at you and seeing that you think things are normal.

The climate activists are a critical part of how to reverse this spiral of silence and make it into people yelling about climate change from the rooftops all the time. The activists are not acting normal. They’re getting arrested 10 times and throwing soup on paintings and the extremity of their actions is also a demonstration of the depth of their feeling and fear, so it’s enacting...

jun 12, 2:15 am

Kansas wheat harvest looks to be historically small
Kansas has been called the country’s breadbasket. Now, wheat farmers in the state will reap heir smallest harvest in more than 60 years.
Morgan Mobley | Jun. 5, 2023

...Kansas flour mills will likely have to buy wheat grown in eastern Europe.

For decades, Kansas has led the nation in wheat production. The U.S. leads the world in in wheat exports, as well.

For the last two years, a drought has withered a lot of the crop.

Now, this year’s wheat harvest in Kansas is shaping up to be the smallest since 1957. That year, the Eisenhower administration intentionally suppressed wheat production...

jun 12, 3:16 am

Physicists predict Earth will become a chaotic world, with dire consequences
Paul Sutter | May 25, 2022

...To account for the different trajectories and choices that humanity could make, the researchers employed a mathematical tool called a logistic map. The logistic map is great at describing situations where some variable — such as the amount of carbon in the atmosphere — can grow but naturally reaches a limit

...For example, the human population can only grow so large and can only have so many carbon-emitting activities; and pollution will eventually degrade the environment. At some point in the future, carbon output will reach a maximum limit, and the researchers found that a logistic map can capture the future trajectory of that carbon output very well.

...In the best cases, once humanity reaches the limit of carbon output, Earth's climate stabilizes at a new, higher average temperature. This higher temperature is overall bad for humans, because it still leads to higher sea levels and more extreme weather events. But at least it's stable: The Anthropocene looks like previous climate ages, only warmer, and it will still have regular and repeatable weather patterns.

But in the worst cases, the researchers found that Earth's climate leads to chaos. True, mathematical chaos. In a chaotic system, there is no equilibrium and no repeatable patterns. A chaotic climate would have seasons that change wildly from decade to decade (or even year to year). Some years would experience sudden flashes of extreme weather, while others would be completely quiet. Even the average Earth temperature may fluctuate wildly, swinging from cooler to hotter periods in relatively short periods of time. It would become utterly impossible to determine in what direction Earth's climate is headed.

...Most concerning, the researchers found that above a certain critical threshold temperature for Earth's atmosphere, a feedback cycle can kick in where a chaotic result would become unavoidable. There are some signs that we may have already passed that tipping point, but it's not too late to avert climate disaster....

Alex E. Bernardin et al. 2023. Chaotic Behaviour of the Earth System in the Anthropocene. (Cornell U) arXiv: :2204.08955. 18p 6 fig. ttps://

It is shown that the Earth System (ES) can, due to the impact of human activities, behave in a chaotic fashion. Our arguments are based on the assumption that the ES can be described by a Landau-Ginzburg model, which on its own allows for predicting that the ES evolves, through regular trajectories in the phase space, towards a Hothouse Earth scenario for a finite amount of human-driven impact. Furthermore, we find that the equilibrium point for temperature fluctuations can exhibit bifurcations and a chaotic pattern if the human impact follows a logistic map.

jun 12, 4:54 am

El Niño is officially here, scientists say
Sascha Pare | 9 June 2023

...El Niño is here and will gradually strengthen into the winter, with a potential worldwide climate impact.

...Typically, moderate-to-strong El Niño events mainly affect U.S. weather in the winter, bringing wetter-than-average conditions from Southern California to the Gulf Coast and drier-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley. This year's event spells warmer temperatures than usual across the northern half of the country.

El Niño also affects the chance of hurricanes, usually helping to suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic and enhancing it in the central and eastern Pacific basins, according to the statement.

...The advent of El Niño this year could help push global temperatures into uncharted territory and contribute to global warming crossing the 1.5-degree-Celsius (1.7 degrees Fahrenheit) threshold within the next five years, which would lead to catastrophic and irreversible climate breakdown...


NOAA declares the arrival of El Nino
Expected to be moderate-to-strong by late fall/early winter
NOAA | June 8, 2023 (1p)

jun 13, 5:36 am

Nice article...

North Atlantic Ocean records its highest ever sea surface temperature
Sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic continues to break records, as the latest data indicates the above average heat continuing
Brian McHughby, Brian McHugh | 12-06-2023

jun 13, 6:40 am

Why thousands of fish washed up on these Texas beaches

"Water can only hold so much oxygen at certain temperatures, and certainly we know that seawater temperatures are rising," Clair said.

jun 15, 3:24 am

Fossil Fuels Now Account for Less Than Half of China’s Power Capacity
Yale Environment 360 | June 12, 2023

In 2021, China set a goal for renewable capacity — including wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear power — to exceed fossil fuel capacity by 2025, a target that it has hit two years ahead of schedule, Reuters reports. Renewable sources, as China defines them, now make up 50.9 percent of the country’s power capacity (maximum amount of electricity a power plant can produce under ideal conditions)...

... Because fossil fuel plants operate closer to their capacity than solar and wind plants do, the newly release figures may obscure how much electricity China is actually drawing from renewables.

Last year, coal ultimately accounted for more than 56 percent of power consumption in China, while renewables — including nuclear power — accounted for less than 26 percent, according to official figures.

Redigerat: jun 15, 3:01 pm

Thomas Reis @peakaustria | 12:03 PM · Jun 15, 2023:
Not fine really not fine, extreme warm in South Africa despite Winter.
Table, S African cities & temps on 15 June 2023 ( )

Quote Tweet
Extreme Temperatures Around The World @extremetemps · 4h:
Never ending record heat in Southern Africa.
It's supposed to be full meteorological winter but temperatures are still rising above
35C in South Africa:
35.4C at Komatidraai yesterday.

Today June record broken at Vilanculos in Mozambique >33C on the coast !
Even hotter tomorrow
Map, S Africa temps ( )

Dr. William J. Ripple @WilliamJRipple | 4:20 PM · Jun 14, 2023:
Distinguished Professor of Ecology-Oregon State University. Director-Alliance of World Scientists. Lead author "World Scientists' Warning of a Climate Emergency"

DON'T LOOK UP, LOOK DOWN to Antarctica. While we all have been looking at the North Atlantic sea temperatures this week, what's happening with sea ice in Antarctica is even more dramatic and well below anything ever recorded for this date during this period of record.
Graph, Antarctic Sea Ice Anomaly, 1991-2023 ( )

jun 15, 3:14 pm

Why recent water temperatures in the North Atlantic have scientists buzzing (2:52)
Sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic are now at record levels as hurricane season begins
Ryan Snoddon | 15 June 2023

jun 16, 3:25 am

a life span in CO2...

Dr. William J. Ripple @WilliamJRipple | 6:21 PM · Jun 15, 2023
Distinguished Professor of Ecology-Oregon State University Director-Alliance of World Scientists Lead author "World Scientists' Warning of a Climate Emergency"*

CLIMATE CRISIS: Here is where we stand now after all of these historic milestones. What do you think? (note: CO2 on X axis, years on Y axis, and global temps as colors)

Graph, trends in atmospheric CO2

* Free access:

William J Ripple et al. 2021. World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency 2021. BioScience, Volume 71, Issue 9, September 2021, Pages 894–898,

jun 24, 7:32 am

Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson | 7:15 AM · Jun 24, 2023:
Retired professor of mathematics and computer science

Meanwhile, down in Antarctica we're having a bit of a freak show, as sea ice extent is growing at a record slow pace (in the modern satellite era), now nearly 2.5m km² below the 1991-2023 mean.

I'm going to speculate this anomaly is not being caused by lack of Saharan dust.
Bar graph ( )

jun 28, 7:40 am

Here we are: swatting at gnats, while the climate-elephant runs by...

Prof. Jason Box @climate_ice | 9:02 AM · Jun 27, 2023:
snow & ice climatologist at Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, contemplating Greenland, Arctic and global climate issues.

Greenland wet snow area punched above the noise @TLMote @NSIDC
Graph ( )

Ryan Katz-Rosene @ryankatzrosene | 2:33 PM · Jun 27, 2023:
Professor uOttawa
studying climate politics, especially re: aviation, nuclear, growth & meat. Editor @StudiesinPoliticalEc
onomy. Co-Host

Carbon emissions associated with Canadian wildfires has trended up over the last two decades. This could be a positive feedback linked to climate change. So far, wildfire emissions in 2023 are equivalent to 85% of Canada's annual GHG emissions! ...
Graph ( )

jun 28, 8:59 am

Georgia's peach crop plummeting due to changing weather patterns, threatening the industry and its farmers
Mark Strassmann, Analisa Novak | June 27, 2023

...this year, about 90% of the state's crop has been lost, prompting those affected to hunt for solutions.

...The primary culprit is a phenomenon known as "chill hours." Georgia peaches, known for their quality, typically require 850 hours under 45-degree Fahrenheit temperatures to blossom. However, this year's crop — influenced by climate change — experienced only about 700 chill hours...

jul 1, 1:04 pm

Canada is burning, and the country is still expanding fossil fuels
Nate Bear | 1 July2023

...The average Canadian produces 22 tonnes of greenhouse gas per year, nearly three times the average of the eight tonnes per year generated by the average citizen of a G20 country. At 22 tonnes the average Canadian produces an astonishing 10-15 times more greenhouse gas per person than the average Nigerian, Pakistani or Ghanaian.

The reason is because of Canada’s oil sands...

jul 7, 2:27 pm

UN says climate change ‘out of control’ after likely hottest week on record
After record breaking days on Monday and Tuesday, unofficial analysis shows the world may have seen its hottest seven days in a row
Guardian staff and agencies | 6 Jul 2023

...“If we persist in delaying key measures that are needed, I think we are moving into a catastrophic situation, as the last two records in temperature demonstrates,” António Guterres said, referring to the world temperature records broken on Monday and Tuesday.

The average global air temperature was 17.18C (62.9F) on Tuesday, according to data collated by the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), surpassing the record 17.01C reached on Monday...

Colin McCarthy @US_Stormwatch | 10:55 PM · Jul 6, 2023:
Worldwide Extreme Weather | Storm Chaser | Content Creator @MyRadarWX | Atmospheric Science @ucdavis

Africa just saw its hottest night ever recorded.
Adrar, Algeria's nighttime low was a searing 39.6°C (103.3°F) 🔥

Map ( )

jul 8, 12:44 pm

Two of the major reasons why I liked Sanders so much was he takes climate and health care seriously. Even among the other democrats I wish more were like that. The republicans forget it. They'd burn the planet down if it meant more $'s in their pockets.

Redigerat: jul 9, 3:34 pm

Brian McNoldy @BMcNoldy | 1:34 PM · Jul 9, 2023:
Senior Research Associate at the Univ. of Miami Rosenstiel School. Hurricanes, climatology, & sea level rise... mostly.

Ok, not sure I've ever seen the water around Florida look quite like this before... at any time of year. 😬
Map ( )


Redigerat: jul 10, 5:04 am

DW News @dwnews | 2:40 AM · Jul 10, 2023

The "heaviest rain ever" in Japan's Kyushu has killed at least one person. "There is a very high possibility that some kind of disaster has already occurred...," Japan's Meteorological Agency said.
The desert of Eden...

DW News @dwnews | 1:49 AM · Jul 10, 2023|
Fishers in Iraq recently came across piles of dead fish washed up on the banks of the Amshan River, likely due to poor water quality.
Iraq is one of the five countries most affected by climate change, according to the UN.

jul 10, 5:27 am

Peter Kalmus @ClimateHuman | 12:15 PM · Jul 9, 2023:
NASA climate scientist. Arrested for defending Earth. @ClimateAd, @EarthHeroOrg.

Reminder that oil corporations have known since the 1970s that they were irreversibly destroying Spaceship Earth. They could have chosen to be part of the solution, transitioning to becoming energy corporations and ending fossil fuels. Instead, they chose to lie and block action

...Never forget that they KNEW precisely what they were doing, every step of the way. And they know today, and still choose to continue taking down the only planet in the universe known to support life. Once you realize this is literally what's happening it's breathtaking

...It feels to me like the climate may have shifted into some sort of new regime of global heating that scientists don’t yet understand. Because of fossil fuels. And yet the media and everyone keep acting like things are basically fine and leaders keep expanding fossil fuels

...I feel like I certainly don’t fully understand what’s going on with the crazy climate data this summer.

But I understand what the fossil fuel industry is still doing, and incredibly brazenly - for example COP 28 is literally being run by a fossil fuel CEO.

...If we let fossil fuel executives stay in charge of everything, we are completely fucked.

...I'd say fossil fuel execs have used the very magnitude of their crime - permanently destroying an as-yet-to-be-determined portion of Earth's habitability for all humanity, for short-term profit - to so far evade conviction. It's so audacious as to be almost impossible to believe

,,,Monday was the hottest day ever recorded on Earth. And it’s only getting hotter and hotter. End the idiotic fossil fuel industry

George Monbiot* @GeorgeMonbiot | 4:16 AM · Jul 5, 2023:

Alarm bells should be ringing everywhere. We seem to have underestimated the chance of climate breakdown causing simultaneous harvest failure in the world's major breadbaskets. It's an issue I discuss in Regenesis, but it appears much worse than we thought

...Simultaneous harvest failures across crop-producing regions are major threats to global food security. A strongly meandering jet can trigger these...

Kai Kornhuber et al. 2023. Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections.
Nature Communications volume 14, Article number: 3528 (4 July 2023)

Simultaneous harvest failures across major crop-producing regions are a threat to global food security. Concurrent weather extremes driven by a strongly meandering jet stream could trigger such events, but so far this has not been quantified. Specifically, the ability of state-of-the art crop and climate models to adequately reproduce such high impact events is a crucial component for estimating risks to global food security. Here we find an increased likelihood of concurrent low yields during summers featuring meandering jets in observations and models. While climate models accurately simulate atmospheric patterns, associated surface weather anomalies and negative effects on crop responses are mostly underestimated in bias-adjusted simulations. Given the identified model biases, future assessments of regional and concurrent crop losses from meandering jet states remain highly uncertain. Our results suggest that model-blind spots for such high-impact but deeply-uncertain hazards have to be anticipated and accounted for in meaningful climate risk assessments.

*George Joshua Richard Monbiot is a British writer known for his environmental and political activism. He writes a regular column for The Guardian and is the author of a number of books. Monbiot grew up in Oxfordshire and studied zoology at the University of Oxford. (Wikipedia)

jul 10, 6:08 am

"Economy-wide emissions reductions between 43 and 48% below 2005 levels by 2035": too late and not enough?

John Bistline et al. 2023. Emissions and energy impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act: Economy-wide emissions drop 43 to 48% below 2005 levels by 2035 with accelerated clean energy deployment. Science 29 Jun 2023 Vol 380, Issue 6652
pp. 1324-1327 DOI: 10.1126/science.adg3781

If goals set under the Paris Agreement are met, the world may hold warming well below 2°C (1); however, parties are not on track to deliver these commitments (2), increasing focus on policy implementation to close the gap between ambition and action. Recently, the US government passed its most prominent piece of climate legislation to date—the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA)—designed to invest in a wide range of programs that, among other provisions, incentivize clean energy and carbon management, encourage electrification and efficiency measures, reduce methane emissions, promote domestic supply chains, and address environmental justice concerns (3). IRA’s scope and complexity make modeling important to understand impacts on emissions and energy systems. We leverage results from nine independent, state-of-the-art models to examine potential implications of key IRA provisions, showing economy-wide emissions reductions between 43 and 48% below 2005 levels by 2035.

jul 11, 4:09 am

Dr Jan Rosenow @janrosenow | 4:07 PM · Jul 10, 2023:
Director @RegAssistProj Board member @eceee_org @EUenergysavings Fellow @theRSAorg Research @ecioxford @SPRU

Rapid decarbonisation is now essential.
We see destructive flooding in India, Japan, China and Turkey and the United States*.
This is to get worse with climate change - additional warming that scientists predict is coming will intensify flooding.

Deadly Flooding Is Hitting Several Countries Right Now
Scientists warn this will become increasingly common with climate change.

* Vermont, for one: (0:53)

jul 11, 4:41 am

A New U.S. Foreign Policy for Global Health
COVID-19 and Climate Change Demand a Different Approach

The United States should treat pandemics and global warming as apex health threats to its national interests, argues David P. Fidler*.

Publisher – Council on Foreign Relations Press

Release Date – Jun 2023

Pages – 56

ISBN 978-0-87609-531-7


* Senior Fellow, Global Health & Cybersecurity, Council on Foreign Relations.

jul 11, 10:12 am

We could lose S Florida coral reefs this summer...

97F at Johnson Key... :(

jul 12, 8:51 am

Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson | 7:27 AM · Jul 11, 2023:
The 7 hottest days on Earth in the last 100,000+ years all happened in the last week:

July 6 ~ 17.23°C / 63.01°F
July 7 ~ 17.20°C / 62.96°F
July 4 ~ 17.18°C / 62.93°F
July 5 ~ 17.18°C / 62.92°F
July 8 ~ 17.17°C / 62.90°F
July 10 ~ 17.12°C / 62.81°F
July 9 ~ 17.11°C / 62.79°F

Earth’s hottest weather in 120,000 years. It’s just getting started.
Jeff Berardelli | 7 July 2023

jul 13, 7:05 am

DW News @dwnews · 2h 7/13/2023:

Nearly 62,000 people in Europe died as a result of extreme summer heat in 2022 — and this summer could be way worse.
1:16 ( )

jul 13, 7:19 am

Surprised that lake chosen to represent Anthropocene is in such a populated area of Ontario--and one that receives polluted air from industry in the Mississippi R valley. Thought lake would have been further north. Crawford Lake is in the Niagara Escarpment, though, so rel. undisturbed--and, being near to Toronto, accessible to scientists.

Canadian lake chosen to represent start of Anthropocene
Nuclear bomb fallout marks dawn of new epoch in which humanity dominates planet
Damian Carrington | 11 Jul 2023

The site to represent the start of the Anthropocene epoch on Earth has been selected by scientists. It will mark the end of 11,700 years of a stable global environment {Holocene?} in which the whole of human civilisation developed and the start of a new age, dominated by human activities.

The site is a sinkhole lake in Canada. It hosts annual sediments showing clear spikes due to the colossal impact of humanity on the planet from 1950 onwards, from plutonium from hydrogen bomb tests to the particles from fossil fuel burning that have showered the globe...

jul 15, 11:28 am

As I post this, I'm listening to the roar of "Poker Run" on St Lawrence R.--race of high performance power boats greater than 30' long... :(

Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf | 10:40 AM · Jul 15, 2023:
WFLA-TV (Tampa Bay) Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist. BS Atmospheric Sciences Cornell U. MA Climate Columbia U. Past CBS News NY and Miami, Tampa, WPB

“during the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, more heat is deposited in the upper 300m of the ocean, During the negative phase, more heat is dumped below 300m…
During El Niño, heat stored at depth…returns to the atmosphere”

Global temperature rises in steps -- here's why we can expect a steep climb this year and next
Kevin Trenberth* | July 11, 2023*

...With a new El Niño emerging and prospects that it could be another major event, are we about to experience the next step up the stairs? Already in 2023, sea-surface temperatures emerged in April as the highest on record and values are running 0.2℃ above previous highs.

This set the stage for June to have record high surface air temperatures globally. In early July, they hit the highest values on record.

We can expect 2023 to emerge as the warmest year to date. But sea-surface temperatures during El Niño events tend to peak about December and have the greatest influences in the subsequent two months. That sets the stage for 2024 jumping up the staircase to the next level, perhaps to 1.4℃ above pre-industrial levels, with likely daily incursions over 1.5℃.

Once the next La Niña event comes along, there’ll again be a pause in the rise, but values will never quite go back to previous levels.

* Distinguished Scholar, NCAR; Affiliate Faculty, University of Auckland

Dr. Robert Rohde @RARohde | 5:25 AM · Jul 15, 2023:
Lead Scientist @BerkeleyEarth. Physics PhD & data nerd.

The first six months of 2023 were the warmest January to June period in the instrumental record for 6.6% of the Earth's surface, including large ocean areas.

Nowhere on Earth had a record cold six month average.
Global heat map Jan-June 2023 ( )

Redigerat: jul 17, 3:36 am

Det här meddelandet har tagits bort av dess författare.

Redigerat: jul 16, 8:28 am

As insurance markets falter "under the weight of multiple catastrophes, extreme weather is testing the ability of even a rich nation like the United States to withstand the warming that has arrived faster than many scientists expected."

Redigerat: jul 16, 8:28 am

Det här meddelandet har tagits bort av dess författare.

jul 16, 7:36 am

Farmers is the most recent to cut ties with Florida. Not sure if I read it here but I did read an article on it. The State itself is providing its own insurance to homeowners because it's being abandoned by insurers left and right and apparently the state's insurance is pretty expensive too. Meanwhile property values are also going up. But Florida these days is always a natural disaster waiting to happen.....and there are plenty there who think that typical conservative line that climate is nothing but bullshit....even when they've been wiped out before. And sometimes they have alternative reasons like God is sending them messages about homosexuality or abortion. Some of the biggest assclowns get elected from that state---DeSantis, Scott, Gaetz. Anna Paulina Luna---another would be MTG/Boebert. Speaking of DeSantis I think one of the reasons he wants to be POTUS is he doesn't want to be Governor of Florida when the devastation really hits which could be a storm or two away.

jul 16, 10:08 am

Note that only one of six Homo species survives today.
And our ancestors experienced at least three near-extinctions ( ).
For our descendants, we are risking lives that are nasty, brutish, and short, and societies far different than today's...

Humans Adapted to Diverse Habitats as Climate and Landscapes Changed
Long-term changes in Earth’s climate affected the dispersal of human ancestors and their adaptation to diverse habitats, a new study finds.
Deepa Padmanaban | 10 July 2023 six species of Homo (H. ergaster, H. habilis, H. erectus, H. heidelbergensis, H. neanderthalensis, and early H. sapiens) adapted to habitats across Africa and Eurasia...during the early to middle Pleistocene (about 2.6 million years ago to 0.5 million years ago), {when} massive changes in Earth’s climate played a role in the distribution of vegetation, as well as the evolutionary development of the Homo species studied...

Citation: Padmanaban, D. (2023), Humans adapted to diverse habitats as climate and landscapes changed, Eos, 104, Published on 10 July 2023.

jul 19, 10:04 am

Deadly flooding hit several countries at once. Scientists say this will only be more common
17 July 2023

...India, Japan, China, Turkey and the U.S....

Although the destructive floods are occurring in different parts of the world, atmospheric scientists say they have this in common: With climate change, storms are forming in a warmer atmosphere, making extreme rainfall a more frequent reality now. The additional warming that scientists predict is coming will only make it worse.

That's because a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, which results in storms dumping more precipitation that can have deadly outcomes...

jul 21, 9:01 am

"PHOENIX (June 29, 2023) - The onset of summer temperatures in Arizona brings renewed warnings from surgeons at the Arizona Burn Center - Valleywise Health about serious burn injuries from outside surfaces that can reach 180 degrees Fahrenheit. Last year (2022), the Arizona Burn Center recorded 85 admissions from heat-related burn injuries in June, July, and August. Seven of those patients died from their injuries..."

jul 22, 10:22 am

Climate records tumble, leaving Earth in uncharted territory - scientists
Georgina Rannard, Erwan Rivault, Jana Tauschinski | 22 July 2023

A series of climate records on temperature, ocean heat, and Antarctic sea ice have alarmed some scientists who say their speed and timing is unprecedented.

Studies are under way, but scientists already fear some worst-case scenarios are unfolding.

"I'm not aware of a similar period when all parts of the climate system were in record-breaking or abnormal territory" ..."The Earth is in uncharted territory" now due to global warming from burning fossil fuels, as well as heat from the first El Niño - a warming natural weather system - since 2018"...

Here are four climate records broken so far this summer - the hottest day on record, the hottest June on record globally, extreme marine heatwaves, record-low Antarctic sea-ice - and what they tell us...

...exactly what was forecast to happen in a world warmed by more greenhouse gases

...If ...surprised by anything, it's that we're seeing the records broken in June, so earlier in the year. El Niño normally doesn't really have a global impact until five or six months into the phase

...extreme heat in the North Atlantic ocean that is particularly alarming scientists...the world has warmed and the oceans have absorbed most of that heat from the atmosphere...

...marine ecosystems, which produce 50% of the world's oxygen...The Atlantic is 5C warmer than it should be - that means organisms need 50% more food just to function as normal...

...Antarctic sea-ice,...not just a record being broken - it is being smashed by a long way...10% lower than the previous low, which is huge...another sign that we don't really understand the pace of change...

...wrong to call what is happening a "climate collapse" or "runaway warming", cautions (Dr Friederike Otto, from Imperial College London).

We are in a new era, but "we still have time to secure a liveable future for many", she explains.

Redigerat: jul 22, 11:36 am

What is the economic cost of wildfire smoke?
CBC News · Posted: Jul 13, 2023

...A forthcoming paper in the Review of Economics and Statistics estimates that between 2007 and 2019, U.S. earnings were reduced by an average of $125 billion a year because of wildfires.

...The researchers found smoke exposure can decrease income across a range of sectors, from manufacturing to farming to real estate, and that older workers and people of colour were disproportionately affected.

...Another study, published last month in the journal Science of the Total Environment, concluded smoke particulates from wildfires could ultimately lead to between 4,000 and 9,000 premature deaths in the U.S. and cost a staggering $36 billion to $82 billion a year in health care...

Paper: Air pollution via wildfire smoke takes toll on labor markets
Phil Ciciora | Jun 27, 2023

Schuai Pan et al. 2023. Quantifying the premature mortality and economic loss from wildfire-induced PM2.5 in the contiguous U.S. Science of The Total Environment Volume 875, 1 June 2023, 162614.

Jason Hill (U MN) jdhill 2:12 PM · Jul 20, 2023
🔥📢 New paper!

"Air quality policy should quantify effects on disparities"

New tools can guide US policies to better target and reduce racial and socioeconomic disparities in air pollution exposure.

Read in @ScienceMagazine:
Text highlighted ( )

jul 22, 11:42 am

This is the current that warms n Europe. Already less saline due to Greenland melt, which affects buoyancy and the current:

Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf | 11:09 PM · Jul 20, 2023
WFLA-TV (Tampa Bay) Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist. BS Atmospheric Sciences Cornell U. MA Climate Columbia U. Past CBS News NY and Miami, Tampa, WPB

Great animation, the darkest shades of red are 5-7C+ above normal. So 12F+ above normal. Much of this would be due to favorable weather patterns for quick surface warming but you can’t rule out some contribution from the slowing ocean circulation.

Quote Tweet
Dr. Mathew Barlow @MathewABarlow | 7:10 PM · Jul 20, 2023:
Climate scientist: droughts, floods, extreme events, & climate change. IPCC WG1 AR6 lead author, @UML_CCI {U Mass Lowell}

last 30 days of sea surface temperature anomalies, western North Atlantic
GIF ( )

jul 23, 4:50 am

65% of Russian landmass is covered by permafrost: roads, buildings, infrastructure...

DW News @dwnews | 1:44 AM · Jul 23, 2023:

The world's biggest permafrost crater is expanding.
And experts say we will see more of these mega-slumps forming as temperatures rise.
1:25 ( )

jul 26, 4:08 am

Temps neared 50C in Tunisia...must be hell on earth.

Here are visuals of Algeria's battle to contain devastating forest fires along its Mediterranean coast, in an inferno which has killed at least 34 people.
0:43 ( )

- DW News @dwnews | 1:41 AM · Jul 26, 2023:

Redigerat: jul 26, 4:29 am

1. Global warming will continue until we reach net-zero.
2. The climate consequences will keep getting worse until we reach net-zero.
3. After reaching net-zero we will have to live and suffer in a warmer world for generations.
Do we act now or delay further?

Image ( )

- Ed Hawkins @ed_hawkins | 9:05 AM · Jul 24, 2023
Climate scientist, NCAS/University of Reading | MBE | Warming Stripes:


Switching The World To Renewable Energy Will Cost $62 Trillion, But The Payback Would Take Just 6 Years
Steve Hanley | September 6, 2022

...145 of the world’s nations could switch to 100% renewable energy in a few years using renewable energy technologies available today. (Co-authors) recommend the world make the switchover by 2035, but in no event later than 2050. Their goal is to have 80% operating on renewable energy by 2030.

The researchers looked at onshore and offshore wind energy, solar power, solar heat, geothermal electricity and heat, hydroelectricity, and small amounts of tidal and wave electricity. Batteries were the most common electricity storage solution, with the team finding that no batteries with more than four hours of storage were necessary...

Mark Z. Jacobson et al. 2022. Low-cost solutions to global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity for 145 countries†. Energy Environ. Sci., 2022, 15, 3343–3359. 118 p.

jul 28, 10:28 am

Geez: Assad & Russia, earthquakes, now wildfires?

The White Helmets @SyriaCivilDef | 9:57 AM · Jul 28, 2023:

After the fatigue and exhaustion of a challenging night, comes a moment of peace and triumph...
A group photo from yesterday's team after more than 9 hours of continuous work to put out the massive Deir Othman forest fires that broke out yesterday evening, Thursday, July 27.
Photo ( )

jul 28, 10:37 am

Shaky ground
A company called Indigo is paying farmers to trap carbon in their soils. Some researchers say the climate benefits are dubious
Gabriel Popkin | 27 Jul 2023

..For advocates, the exchange represents a beautiful marriage of idealism and capitalism in the service of an urgently needed climate solution. If applied across the globe’s farmland, soil-based carbon capture could offset between 5% and 15% of greenhouse gas emissions every year, according to an influential 2004 study by Ohio State University soil scientist Rattan Lal. “I and many other scientists have a lot of confidence that we can build carbon in soil,” says Deborah Bossio, lead soil scientist for the Nature Conservancy.

Millions of dollars of soil credits have already been sold (Buyers were companies such as IBM, JPMorgan Chase, and Shopify, which were looking to offset greenhouse gas emissions from their operations and bolster their green bona fides.), and companies like Indigo are ramping up aggressively to claim a piece of an industry that could overall be worth $50 billion by 2030, according the consulting firm McKinsey & Company. (Indigo also made money in the deal. It took a 25% cut of the bundle of credits it then sold at about $40 per ton of captured carbon.) With other carbon markets based on planting or preserving trees facing accusations of peddling questionable or outright fraudulent credits, some buyers may see soil as a safer option.

But as the industry heats up, so does the skepticism. Some researchers say the science of how soils store and release carbon is too uncertain to support an industry claiming to be cooling the planet. They accuse companies like Indigo of exaggerating the benefits of their programs...

jul 30, 8:59 am

Chances of climate catastrophe are ignored, scientists say
SETH BORENSTEIN | Associated Press Mon, August 1st 2022

...Eleven scientists from around the world are calling on the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world's authoritative climate science organization, to do a special science report on "catastrophic climate change" to "bring into focus how much is at stake in a worst-case scenario." In their perspective piece in Monday's Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences they raise the idea of human extinction and worldwide societal collapse in the third sentence, calling it "a dangerously underexplored topic."

Eleven scientists from around the world are calling on the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world's authoritative climate science organization, to do a special science report on "catastrophic climate change" to "bring into focus how much is at stake in a worst-case scenario." In their perspective piece in Monday's Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences they raise the idea of human extinction and worldwide societal collapse in the third sentence, calling it "a dangerously underexplored topic."

The scientists said they aren't saying that worst is going to happen. They say the trouble is no one knows how likely or unlikely a "climate endgame" is and the world needs those calculations to battle global warming....

...University of Victoria climate scientist Andrew Weaver, a former British Columbia legislator for the Green Party..."Resilient humans will survive, but our societies that have urbanized and are supported by rural agriculture will not."...

Luke Kemp,et al. 2022. Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios. PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences) August 1, 2022 119 ( 34) e2108146119

Redigerat: jul 31, 4:24 am

Project 2025 is GOPers’ blueprint for destroying the planet. It must be stopped.
It sounds insane: In a summer of 110-degree heat waves and killer floods, GOPers draft a 2025 scheme to end all action on climate change.
Will Bunch | 30 July 2023

...the brain trust of the conservative movement — including key officials of Donald Trump’s disastrous 2017-21 presidency — were spending $22 million to craft a 950-page plan called Project 2025 that (among other things) is a blueprint for unconditional surrender in the war on climate change. The scheme drafted by the Heritage Foundation and other think tanks that have guided GOP administrations since Ronald Reagan wouldn’t just halt the desperately needed transition to clean energy and electric cars, but restore the unchecked hegemony of burning fossil fuels.

...Some specifics: Blocking the expansion of the electrical grid to accommodate clean energy sources like wind and solar. Eliminating three offices within the Department of Energy promoting the renewable power transition. Wiping out funding for environmental justice work in the U.S. Department of Environmental Protection. Massive growth of the natural gas infrastructure such as pipelines. Ensuring that no other states win approval for the kind of strict electric car guidelines being implemented in California. The EPA and other key agencies would be radically downsized and placed under the care of right-wing pro-fossil fuel zealots. It even includes restrictions on new scientific research...

Policy Agenda
This book is an invitation for you the reader—Mr. Smith, Mrs. Smith, and Ms. Smith—to come to Washington or support those who can. Our goal is to assemble an army of aligned, vetted, trained, and prepared conservatives to go to work on Day One to deconstruct the Administrative State.

Redigerat: jul 31, 1:03 am

>55 margd: For some conservatives it's all bs....just like they believe CRT is an actual thing or that women are aborting kids post-birth. They are prone to believing whatever lies (particularly from Trump) that some GOP politician or operative tells them.....and this is what fuels Ron DeSantis's presidential campaign. He understands he needs lies to connect with the Trump base. And then there's the if floods, earthquakes and forest fires are happening it's because God/Jesus wants them too crowd and the only one who can reverse that is God/Jesus. We can expect no help but plenty of hindrance from elected politicians representing these kinds of people.

Much of the country most prone to natural disaster vote more or compeltely for climate denial republican politicians. Florida and many of the Gulf states are not that far from in large part washing away. Northern California which is republican territory is prone to massive forest fires. Throughout the middle of the country they are prone to tornadoes and earthquakes.......and their hands are out when disaster happens and lets put a word on the government helping out people and communities that have seen their lives and homes wrecked by natural disaster. It's 'socialist' policy that comes to save them and practically anyone who is looking at their entire economic fortunes destroyed----their hands are out for help and they take whatever help they can get.

Redigerat: jul 31, 4:13 am

>56 lriley: Amazing how short-sighted "conservatives" can be on issues. In his "Data Download", Meet the Press's Chuck Todd had some illuminating figures on death rates in D and R-leaning counties, before and after introduction of the COVID vaccine. Rs did significantly worse--enough to swing some elections in 2024. Plus I read somewhere that MAGAs love RFK Jr--could R shill take votes away from R candidate and not D? In pandering to their base (+ guns, fossil fuels), Rs are surprisingly short-sighted!! Even to point of putting their supporters at risk...

If political leaders are paralyzed, will it come down to private sector to force action?

How climate change could cause a home insurance meltdown
Michael Copley, Rebecca Hersher, Nathan Rott | July 22, 2023
Heard on All Things Considered (3:44)

...hundreds of thousands of other homeowners in California, now faces the state's growing climate threats with a weaker safety net. Over the past two years, several big insurers, including Allstate and State Farm, have scaled back their home insurance businesses in California to avoid paying billions for wildfire damage, or have halted sales of new policies altogether. Homeowners like Pratt are finding out that their longtime insurers have decided not to renew coverage.

California isn't alone. Insurance companies in states like Colorado, Louisiana and Florida are paring down business to shield themselves from ballooning losses as climate change fuels more-intense disasters. Earlier this month, the insurance arm of AAA announced it would not renew some "higher exposure" home insurance policies in Florida, and Farmers Insurance announced it will stop offering new home insurance policies in the state and won't renew thousands of existing ones, in part because of rising losses from hurricanes...

Susie Dent @susie_dent | 3:57 AM · Jul 31, 2023:

Word of the day is ‘snollygoster’ (19th century):
one who abandons their principles for short-term gain or power.

jul 31, 7:09 am

>57 margd: If RFK Jr. runs as an independent I don't think he siphons off very many Trump voters. I think he mainly grabs some on the fence independents. I don't think he's got a shot at beating Biden (or if Biden chooses not to run; another democrat) in a democratic primary. At this point in time I don't think RFK Jr. is having a lot of fun. He seems almost as super sensitive to a critique as DeSantis is. When someone criticizes him for being anti-vaxx he kind of loses his shit. When there's a chorus after he says something dumb like the Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese thing his tears become almost palpable. We're seeing someone who can't really handle abuse. He's also not ready for the range of potential issues that will come up in a presidency. He's just winging away. It's not like Joe is great at it either and certainly Trump isn't. Obama could speak to the entire thing. He just didn't so much. Sanders speaks to everything too. Someone who can go from issue to issue for 2 hours at a time in stump speeches...get on a plane and do it up to 3 times a day. He's too old now but he's good at campaigning. When it comes to that Kennedy Jr. is a piker. He doesn't even know half the shit he really should and at least half the people in this group are better than he is. He's specialized some issues is all and is anti-vaccine stuff is just dumb. Trump is the same but he's got a mesmerized base of supporters who worship the ground he walks on.

aug 1, 5:01 am

This could be so bad for N Europe. Us, too in N America, but N Europe is same latitude as Labrador! Greenland meltwater was already measurably affecting salinity, which affects currents through weight differences of fresh and saltwater

Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) @WHOI | 4:01 PM · Jul 31, 2023

A paper predicting the imminent collapse of a critical system of ocean currents– published last week by @UCPH_Research scientists in Nature – has prompted intense discussion in scientific circles. #WHOI's Nick Foukal weighs in via WIRED :

Map N Atlantic currents ( )

Why Scientists Are Clashing Over the Atlantic’s Critical Currents
Is the system of currents that runs through the Atlantic about to shut down, creating climate chaos? Depends on who you ask.
Matt Simon | Jul 26, 2023 8:00 AM

aug 3, 11:07 am

Adam Vaughan @adamvaughan_uk | 5:21 AM · Aug 3, 2023:
Environment editor, The Times.

Shocking chart from @CopernicusECMWF
At the end of July, carbon emissions from Canada wildfires were ALREADY double the previous ANNUAL record total

Graph ( )

aug 3, 11:25 am

UNITED24media @United24media | 9:01 AM · Aug 3, 2023:
Ukraine is fighting for freedom and independence. We're a new Ukraine-focused digital media showing the real Ukraine to the world.

😡 Almost half of the Ukrainians held in Russian detention centers during the occupation of Kherson were subjected to large-scale torture, including sexual violence, according to a rights report by Global Rights Compliance.

New evidence reveals widespread torture and sexual violence used by Russians in Kherson torture chambers
Global Rights Compliance | 3 August 2023

Redigerat: aug 4, 10:12 am

‘We’re changing the clouds.’ An unforeseen test of geoengineering is fueling record ocean warmth
Paul Voosen | 2 Aug 2023

Pollution cuts have diminished “ship track” clouds, adding to global warming

...The obvious and primary driver of {Atlantic fever} is society’s emissions of greenhouse gases, which trap heat that the oceans steadily absorb. Another influence has been recent weather, especially stalled high-pressure systems that suppress cloud formation and allow the oceans to bake in the Sun.

But researchers are now waking up to another factor, one that could be filed under the category of unintended consequences: disappearing clouds known as ship tracks. Regulations imposed in 2020 by the United Nations’s International Maritime Organization (IMO) have cut ships’ sulfur pollution by more than 80% and improved air quality worldwide. The reduction has also lessened the effect of sulfate particles in seeding and brightening the distinctive low-lying, reflective clouds that follow in the wake of ships and help cool the planet...

aug 4, 5:12 pm

Meanwhile, in southern hemisphere...

Meltwater from Antarctic Glaciers Is Slowing Deep-Ocean Currents
Veronika Meduna | 26 July 2023

Antarctic ice drives crucial deep-ocean currents that help regulate Earth’s climate. But the system is slowing down.

...When the sea freezes around Antarctica’s fringes in winter, the ice expels salt into the water below. Trillions of metric tons of this briny, supercooled, heavy water cascade down Antarctica’s continental slope, dropping into the deep ocean in submarine waterfalls.

As these waters sink from the Antarctic shelf, they spread north through the Southern Ocean, driving abyssal circulation—the lower limb of the global ocean overturning circulation. They are the densest water masses in the world’s oceans and the engine room of a current system that conveys heat, dissolved gases, and nutrients around the world...

aug 4, 5:31 pm

Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson | 11:19 AM · Aug 4, 2023:
Retired professor of mathematics and computer science

Y-axis extension alert!!!

For the first time in recorded history, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are above 25°C (77°F).

With a month of warming ahead, yesterday's average temperature of 25.01°C was 0.70°C higher than the previous record for the date (24.31°C in 2020).

Graph N Atlantic surface temp ( )

aug 5, 6:43 am

South Korea under pressure to cancel World Scout Jamboree
DW | 5 Aug 2023

Hit by extreme temperatures, South Korea has been urged to cut short the World Scout Jamboree after large UK and US groups pulled out early from what's seen as the world's largest youth camp...

aug 5, 9:15 am

Danger in the dirt
Lauren Pelley | Aug. 5, 2023

A fungus that lurks in desert soil makes thousands of Americans sick every year with a condition known as Valley Fever. Thanks to climate change, it’s spreading north.

...a fungus that lurks in the desert soil. On dry, windy days, spores of coccidioides — or “cocci,” as scientists call it — can float through the air and find their way into human lungs. From there, they multiply, spread and cause chaos, leading to an infection known as Valley Fever.

Many people never know they’ve caught it, but for others it causes symptoms ranging from a cough to exhaustion to dangerous swelling around the brain. In rarer cases, when the fungus spreads throughout the body, it can take up residence for months, years, even indefinitely. Treatments can also last a lifetime, restraining the threat without curing the patient.

...a pernicious pathogen that is adapting to our changing climate. It’s now venturing further north, putting millions more people at risk, and is poised to become a bigger health issue in the decades ahead, alongside a slate of other evolving fungal threats. Most are becoming adept at dodging our best drug treatments — and there’s no vaccine to protect against any of them.

They’re also getting tougher to avoid...

aug 5, 4:02 pm

Climate change causes a mountain peak frozen for thousands of years to collapse

Redigerat: aug 6, 8:26 am

>67 2wonderY: :(

Colin McCarthy @US_Stormwatch | 7:56 PM · Aug 4, 2023:
Worldwide Extreme Weather | Storm Chaser | Digital Creator @MyRadarWx | Atmospheric Science @ucdavis

A massive severe marine heatwave has emerged off the coast of western North America with sea surface temperatures up to 4.4°C (8°F) above normal.

This heatwave is expected to persist throughout the summer, causing significant impacts on marine life due to building heat stress.

Map west coast N America

Colin McCarthy @US_Stormwatch | 1:08 PM · Aug 5, 2023

NOAA's coral bleaching forecast for the next 4 months is shocking.
Virtually all North American coral reefs could face bleaching in the next 4 months.
Map ( )

Coral bleaching is already well underway in parts of the Eastern Pacific, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico.
Red shading (Alert Level 1) means "significant bleaching likely," and dark red shading (Alert Level 2) means "severe bleaching and significant mortality likely."
Map ( )

Here's a map of the coral reefs in the Eastern Pacific, Caribbean, and Gulf.
25% of marine life is estimated to rely on coral reefs, making them one of if not the most important ecosystems in the ocean.
Map ( )

Redigerat: aug 6, 8:29 am

Jason Hickel @jasonhickel | 4:07 AM · Aug 6, 2023:
Professor at ICTA-UAB {Barcelona} and Visiting Senior Fellow at LSE {London School of Economics} • Author of THE DIVIDE and LESS IS MORE • Global inequality, political economy and ecological economics

This image breaks me. At 2.7 degrees of warming, which is our present policy trajectory, two billion people will be exposed to extreme heat.

99.7% of those people live in the global South. People who have done nothing to cause this crisis. The injustice is staggering.

Map ( )

United Farm Workers @UFWupdates | 4:15 PM · Aug 5, 2023:
Abel's a truck driver in the Bakersfield CA area grape harvest. Once the grapes have been picked & packed, he & his team mate load the hundreds of boxes onto the trailer. Depending on the variety, the boxes easily weigh 20 pound each. The high this day was 106°...
0:11 ( )

aug 7, 7:09 am

Record high average monthly dew point:

Brian Brettschneider @Climatologist49 | 1:55 PM · Aug 6, 2023:
Alaska. PhD climatologist

Not only was July 2023 the warmest month on record with the highest SSTs {Sea Surface Temperature} on record, it had the highest average dew point of any July (and month) on record. Blues represent record high dew points. Of course over water this is highly correlated to SSTs. Still, it was a wet heat.
Global map dew points ( )

Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf | 9:20 PM · Aug 6, 2023:
Warmer water = higher dewpoints. Here in Florida it translates to extreme daytime heat Index numbers and record warm minimum temperatures.

aug 7, 7:30 am

Professor Mark Maslin 𝕏 🙄 @ProfMarkMaslin | 6:02 AM · Aug 7, 2023
#ClimateChange Professor @ucl {U College London}
, author of #HumanPlanet, #CradleOfHumanity, #HowToSaveOurPlanet, member of @ClimateCrisisAG

#ClimateChange is exceptional and caused by human greenhouse gas emissions

We are causing #globalwarming 100 times faster than past natural changes

We are taking Earth’s climate way beyond natural limits, with carbon dioxide and temperatures levels not seen for 3 million years

animated graph Co2 temps over time ( )
Franny Armstrong and 8 others

Redigerat: aug 7, 8:44 am

Arctic sea ice: coverage holding, though ice is thin. Important because ice reflects, while open water reflects sunlight. Worries for 2024.

Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson | 8:57 AM · Aug 6, 2023:

It's been a long time since we checked in with our old friend Arctic sea ice extent, which has oddly not been keeping pace with other record events this year.

As of August 5, Arctic sea ice extent is over 687,000 km² below the 1991-2020 mean. But a BOE {Blue Ocean Event}? Not this year.

Graph Arctic sea ice over time ( )

Justin Leso @JLesoYami | 10:31 AM · Aug 6, 2023:
160,000km2 decline yesterday there’s plenty of time left for something interesting (a new record low )+ El Niño induced lack of refreeze this winter? Does not bode well for 2024

wxchris @wxchris3 | 10:30 PM · Aug 6, 2023:
Record low pretty much off the table this year. However, the fall/winter refreeze this year and '24 may suffer from higher surface temps and eventually ocean heat through the north Atlantic current --> Norwegian coastal current route. Atlantic water layer has shoaled fast there.

Meanwhile, Antarctic sea ice is in record low territory:

Graph, Antarctic sea ice v 1981-2010 baseline ( )

aug 7, 8:36 am

Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson | 7:34 AM · Aug 7, 2023:

Day #35 of the record global heatwave, with signs it may be coming to an end soon.

Bar graph record 2m temps 3 July-6 Aug 2023

aug 8, 10:20 am

Everything, everywhere, all at once: The great floods of 2023
Jessica McKenzie | July 27, 2023

...catastrophic, deadly flooding events...the Guardian compiled a shocking video montage of footage from around the globe that shows entire buildings collapsing and being swept away, and people clinging desperately to trees and cars on flooded roadways.*

...Peter Gleick, noted water expert and the author of a new book titled The Three Ages of Water: Prehistoric Past, Imperiled Present, and a Hope for the Future...

"The hydrologic cycle, which I think of as a fundamental part of the climate cycle, is intensifying. It’s intensifying because by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, we trap more energy. By putting more energy into the atmosphere, we’re accelerating, intensifying the hydrologic cycle, we see more evaporation because temperatures are going up. More evaporation means more moisture in the atmosphere, more moisture in the atmosphere—it has to come down somewhere. And it’s coming down in intense events. Rather than an increase in the average of rainfall, we’re seeing an increase in the extremes of rainfall"...

Extreme flooding seen across the world so far this summer – video report (2:21)
As credited | 11 July 2023

aug 10, 9:01 am

Hot tub-like Persian Gulf fuels 158-degree heat index in Iran

aug 15, 12:38 am

>75 Molly3028: Those poor people.

Breaking news: In the first ruling of its kind nationwide, a Montana state court decided Monday in favor of young people who alleged the state violated their right to a “clean and healthful environment” by promoting the use of fossil fuels.

The court determined that a provision in the Montana Environmental Policy Act has harmed the state’s environment and the young plaintiffs, by preventing Montana from considering the climate impacts of energy projects.

Breaking news: Judge sides with young Montanans in landmark climate decision

- The Washington Post @washingtonpost | 12:51 PM · Aug 14, 2023

aug 15, 10:52 am

>76 margd: I think some of the response on both sides is overblown. The Montana constitution says "the state and each person shall maintain and improve a clean and healthful environment in Montana for present and future generations." That's the rock the defendants wrecked on. Montana is bound by the constitution it wrote in a way that nobody else would be.

Redigerat: aug 22, 9:07 am

James Edward Hansen @DrJamesEHansen | 7:13 AM · Aug 15, 2023
Director of Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions at Columbia University's Earth Institute Formerly Director of NASA GISS

Climate is headed for a new frontier. Here’s how we know. Earth’s energy imbalance also informs us about how much we need to do to stop global warming. See —

Uh-Oh. Now What? Are We Acquiring the Data to Understand the Situation?
James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Reto Ruedy | 14 August 2023

Abstract. Global temperature in June and July (Fig. 1) shot far above the prior records for those months for the 140 years of good instrumental data. Early indications are that warming exceeds expectation based on only the long-term trend due to increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) plus the emerging El Nino. Three additional mechanisms will have a near-term effect, with a result that the 12-month mean global temperature likely will pierce the 1.5°C warming level before this time next year. Uncertainties in present analyses draw attention to the inadequacy of and the precarious state of crucial global observations.


Graph earth energy imbalanc 2000-2022 ( )

aug 24, 12:20 pm

For those who claim that it's El Niño, not climate change.

Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf | 9:44 AM · Aug 23, 2023:
WFLA-TV (Tampa Bay) Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist. BS Atmospheric Sciences Cornell U. MA Climate Columbia U. Past CBS News NY and Miami, Tampa, WPB

Good comparison of baseline ocean temperatures during each of the last super El Niños 1997, 2015 and this year. Something is changing. Must be the Atlantis Urban Heat Island Effect. {;/}

Graph ( )

Leon Simons @LeonSimons8 | 6:47 AM · Aug 23, 2023:
...See the comparison to other starting El Niño years:

The 1997, 2015 and 2023 anomalies:

Extrapolation of 2015 and 2016 for 2023 and 2024 after June 11, compared to observations:

The Aug 21 2023 SST is almost as far from 2015 (0.38C), as 2015 was from 1997 (0.42C)!

aug 25, 11:01 am

Anger found to be the primary driver of climate activism
Bob Yirka | 25 Aug 2023

...2,046 Norwegian adults...just under half of the respondents felt angry about climate change. And those who were angry said it was mostly due to human actions leading to climate change. Many were also angry about the prioritization of funding toward activities that they deemed less important than climate change.

When respondents were asked which emotion was most likely to drive them to engage in climate activism, anger was cited most often, seven times as often as hope, which came in second.

More information: Thea Gregersen et al, The strength and content of climate anger, Global Environmental Change (2023). DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102738

aug 25, 1:29 pm

>80 margd: My primary motivator is dread.

Redigerat: aug 25, 2:29 pm

>81 2wonderY: Heat and humidity, here, with wildfire smoke and loss of power... :0

Redigerat: aug 27, 5:52 am

Joel Pett (cartoon, USA Today, 2009):
Asked at climate summit: "What if it's a big hoax and we create a better world for nothing?"

Nick Anderson (cartoon, KA News, 2023):
Dad to son by future fire in cave:
"So then we decided not to prevent climate change because it would hurt the economy."

aug 27, 6:10 am

Rivers in the Sky: How Deforestation Is Affecting Global Water Cycles
Fred Pearce • July 24, 2018

...Michael Wolosin of the U.S. think tank Forest Climate Analytics and Nancy Harris of the World Resources Institute published a study* that concluded that “tropical forest loss is having a larger impact on the climate than has been commonly understood.” They warned that large-scale deforestation in any of the three major tropical forest zones of the world – Africa’s Congo basin, southeast Asia, and especially the Amazon – could disrupt the water cycle sufficiently to “pose a substantial risk to agriculture in key breadbaskets halfway round the world in parts of the U.S., India, and China.”

And in a background paper for the UN event, David Ellison of the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences in Uppsala, reported on “increasingly sophisticated literature” assessing “the potential impact of forest cover on water availability across the broad expanse of continental, terrestrial surface.”

It is well known that carbon dioxide emissions from deforestation add 10 percent or so to global warming by reducing the quantity of CO2 that the world’s forests pull from the atmosphere. But the authors of both papers say this understanding about global impacts of deforestation has tended to eclipse findings about other “non-carbon” climatic impacts that may play out intensively at local and regional scales.

The impact of deforestation on rainfall is one of the most important non-carbon effects. But there are others. For instance, healthy forests release a range of volatile organic compounds that “have an overall cooling effect on our climate,” mostly by blocking incoming solar energy, says Dominick Spracklen of Leeds University in England. Removing forests eliminates this cooling effect and adds to warming, he and an international team concluded in a study published earlier this year.

Meanwhile, lost forests are usually replaced by agriculture, which produces its own emissions. Add in these impacts and the real contribution of deforestation to global climate warming since 1850 is as much as 40 percent, conclude Wolosin and Harris. At that rate, tropical deforestation could add 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7°Fahrenheit) to global temperatures by 2100 – even if we shut down fossil fuel emissions tomorrow, calculates Natalie Mahowald of Cornell University...

But there are local effects, too. Forests moderate local climate by keeping their local environments cool. They do this partly by shading the land, but also by releasing moisture from their leaves. This process, called transpiration, requires energy, which is extracted from the surrounding air, thus cooling it. A single tree can transpire hundreds of liters of water in a day. Each hundred liters has a cooling effect equivalent to two domestic air conditioners for a day, calculates Ellison....


aug 27, 8:07 am

Eric Feigl-Ding @DrEricDing | 7:29 AM · Aug 25, 2023:

Carl Sagan’s incredibly eloquent 4 min speech to Congress in 1985 about precisely how CO2 and other greenhouse gases caused by humans lead to #climatechange. Worth your time to watch and listen.

From CarlSaganDotCom
4:04 ( )

aug 30, 2:54 pm

How the Speed of Climate Change Is Unbalancing the Insect World
The pace of global heating is forcing insect populations to move and adapt—and some aggressive species are thriving
Oliver Milman |

...At 3.2C of warming, which many scientists still fear the world will get close to by the end of this century (although a flurry of promises at Cop26 have brought the expected temperature increase down to 2.4C), half of all insect species will lose more than half of their current habitable range. This is about double the proportion of vertebrates and higher even than for plants, which lack wings or legs to quickly relocate themselves. This huge contraction in livable space is being heaped on to the existing woes faced by insects from habitat loss and pesticide use...

This is an edited extract from The Insect Crisis: the fall of the tiny empires that run the world, published on 20 January by Atlantic.

aug 31, 9:11 am

Global subsidies for fossil fuels reached $7 trillion in 2022, an all-time high, a new analysis finds.
{Yale} E360 Digest | August 31, 2023

IMF Fossil Fuel Subsidies Data: 2023 Update
International Working Fund Working Paper
Simon Black ; Antung A. Liu ; Ian W.H. Parry ; Nate Vernon | August 24, 2023

Redigerat: sep 2, 5:50 pm

Molly Jong-Fast @MollyJongFast | 3:34 PM · Sep 2, 2023:
@vanityfair special correspondent

Really sticking it to the planet. What a moron
Text excerpted from Politico ( )

DeSantis tells Biden: Keep your IRA money
Jennifer Haberkorn | 08/30/2023

The governor is blocking Biden’s IRA benefits from Floridians. There’s not much Dems can do about it.

{DeSantis also refused to meet w President visiting Idalia-stricken areas. What a classless ingrate.

ETA: Wow, even Sen. Rick Scott (former FL Gov.), himself pretty slimy, met with the President visiting Idalia-stricken areas. 1:06 ( or )

sep 4, 8:23 am

Aerosol geoengineering will not stop Antarctic ice sheet from melting, simulations suggest
Physics World | 31 Aug 2023

Artificially dimming the Sun by injecting aerosols into Earth’s atmosphere may help to delay a significant consequence of climate change in Antarctica, but not stop it — researchers in Switzerland and the UK have revealed. Through new simulations, a team led by Johannes Sutter at the University of Bern has showed that the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) can only be avoided if we eliminate global emissions of greenhouse gases as quickly as possible...

J. Sutter et al. 2023. Climate intervention on a high-emissions pathway could delay but not prevent West Antarctic Ice Sheet demise. Nature Climate Change (10 Aug 2023)


Solar radiation modification (SRM) is increasingly discussed as a tool to reduce or avert global warming and concomitantly the risk of ice-sheet collapse, as is considered possible for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Here we analyse the impact of stratospheric aerosol injections on the centennial-to-millennial Antarctic sea-level contribution using an ice-sheet model. We find that mid-twenty-first-century large-scale SRM could delay but ultimately not prevent WAIS collapse in a high-emissions scenario. On intermediate-emissions pathways, SRM could be an effective tool to delay or even prevent an instability of WAIS if deployed by mid-century. However, SRM interventions may be associated with substantial risks, commitments and unintended side effects; therefore, emissions reductions to prevent WAIS collapse seem to be the more practical and sensible approach at the current stage.

sep 4, 8:30 am

Banks pouring trillions to fossil fuel expansion in global south, report finds
Dharna Noor | 4 Sep 2023

Since the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement banks have provided some $3.2tn to the fossil fuel industry to expand operations

...The leading fossil fuel financiers include Chinese banks funding coal, oil and gas buildout within the nation. Top US banks like Citigroup, Bank of America and JP Morgan Chase have also offered trillions to Saudi Aramco, Exxon and other fossil fuel companies for fossil fuel activity in developing countries in regions such as South America and Africa.

In that same time span, the analysis says, major international banks have also loaned and underwritten at least $370bn for the expansion of global south-based industrial agriculture. Europe’s HSBC and the United States’ Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase and Citigroup lead the pack, offering billions of dollars to big agricultural giants like Bayer (which acquired Monsanto in 2016), ADM, Cargill and ChemChina.

Industrial agriculture is the second-most planet-heating industry globally...

sep 4, 9:17 am

Guess which state is opting out of energy-savings rebate program because it’s ‘woke’
LEW SICHELMAN Andrews McMeel Syndication September 02, 2023

...The Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Biden a year ago, created two energy-efficiency rebate programs that could pay some, or even all, of the costs of buying Energy Star-rated appliances, adding insulation or otherwise making your home more efficient. The rub: States will administer the programs, and each one must apply for its share of the $8.8 billion in federal funds earmarked for the rebates. And some states may opt out. The states’ application window opened this summer, when the Department of Energy issued the program’s guidelines, and will close on Jan. 31, 2025. DoE expects the majority of states will have their programs up and running by early 2024. The rebates will be available to homeowners until Sept. 30, 2031, or until their respective state depletes its grants. Declined funds will be redistributed to other states. One state has already indicated it probably won’t participate. Lawmakers in Tallahassee voted to apply for Florida’s allocation — which, at roughly $346 million, is the third-largest in the country, behind California and Texas. But Gov. Ron DeSantis vetoed the measure as “woke.” The DoE has not been officially notified, so DeSantis could still change his mind...

Republican Presidential Candidates Vow to Fiddle as Earth Burns (Opinion)
David Robert Grimes | September 1, 2023

Denial of climate change is driven by ideology, leaving its consequences to harm us all—especially the world's poorest

...Climate change confounds a central tenet of libertarian free-market views. Accepting the reality of human-mediated climate change means mitigating action should logically follow. But as free-market beliefs typically entail strong distrust of government or market regulation, climate change poses an ideological challenge. This leaves people with two distinct options: One might carefully reevaluate the boundaries of one’s convictions to incorporate new information and refine their philosophy; this intellectually admirable approach is difficult and cognitively expensive work. Or there is a darker, easier alternative—simply reject the problem, and retreat into naked negation by ignoring evidence and seeking to stymy those pointing out the urgency of the issue.

...unholy alliances of disinformation purveyors reduce our ability to take corrective action.

To combat ideology’s stranglehold on people’s thinking, we must condemn performances like the Republican debate’s climate cattle call for what they are: reckless and self-serving displays of ideology rejecting reality.

sep 4, 3:38 pm

New Research Shows Direct Link Between Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Polar Bear Decline
Bob Berwyn | September 3, 2023

Scientists say their findings could help close a legal loophole that enables the federal government to avoid considering greenhouse gas emissions impacts on threatened and endangered species.

...The paper establishes a direct link between anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and cub survival rates using a methodology that can “parse the impact of emissions by source,” said {Steven Amstrup, an adjunct biology professor at the University of Wyoming and co-author of a new peer-reviewed paper in Science}, also the chief science officer for Polar Bears International, a nonprofit conservation organization.

For example, the new paper notes that the hundreds of power plants in the U.S. combined will emit more than 60 gigatons of carbon dioxide over their 30-year lifespans. By calculating the amount of warming that carbon will drive, and the amount of Arctic sea ice that heat will melt, they estimate that those emissions will reduce polar bear cub recruitment in the Southern Beaufort Sea population by about 4 percent. By using that formula, they can measure how greenhouse gas emissions from a new project would affect polar bear populations, a calculation that wasn’t as clear when polar bears were listed as vulnerable.

And the same type of analysis could be applied to measure the impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on habitat and demographic changes for other species listed as endangered, Amstrup said....

Steven C. Amstrup and Cecilia M. Bitz 2023. Unlock the Endangered Species Act to address GHG emissions
For the first time, ESA evaluations can include impacts on polar bears from greenhouse gas emissions
Science, 31 Aug 2023, Vol 381, Issue 6661, pp. 949-951. DOI: 10.1126/science.adh2280

In 2008, projections that up to two-thirds of the world’s polar bears could disappear by mid-century (1) led to polar bears becoming the first species listed under the US Endangered Species Act (ESA) because of threats from anthropogenic climate warming. Updated analyses (2) corroborated the 2008 projections and showed a linear but inverse relationship between Arctic sea ice extent and global mean temperature. Despite the relationship between warming and sea ice loss, absence of a quantitative link between anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, sea ice loss, and declining polar bear vital rates has foiled full ESA implementation for polar bears. By quantifying the relationship between anthropogenic GHG emissions and polar bear recruitment, we show that sensitivities to cumulative anthropogenic emissions explain observed population trends, allow estimation of demographic impacts from new emissions sources, and enable ESA procedures to assess global warming impacts of proposed actions—along with impacts on the ground.

Redigerat: sep 5, 4:39 am

Lotsa doubters on precip predictions for Greece--hope doubters are correct...Noah's flood 2?

Laurie Garrett @Laurie_Garrett | 2:56 PM · Sep 4, 2023:

Bracing for 78.7 INCHES of rain falling on Thessaly, Greece in just 48 hours.
Perspective: the Great Vermont Flood of 10-11 July 2023 was caused by a 48hr downpour of 9 inches.
This is so far beyond a question of records-broken: This is survival.

Nahel Belgherze @WxNB_9:25 AM · Sep 4, 2023
Posts mainly about Severe Weather, Climate, Satellite imagery, Radar data - Based in the French Alps

Absolutely unreal. Latest ECMWF based Swiss 4x4 km HD model run remains off the charts with forecast rainfall across Thessaly, Greece over the next 48 hours. +2,000 mm in 48 hours is highly unlikely to occur but it shows the extreme rainfall potential of this event.
I can't recall seeing rainfall forecasts this extreme in Europe.
Map Greece ( )

Nahel @WxNB_ | 8:31 AM · Sep 4, 2023
All eyes are now on what could potentially be a Major flooding event for the Decentralized Administration of Thessaly and Central Greece. All models suggest very high rain totals through Thursday. Some areas could get up to 500 mm of rain in just 48 hours.
Very concerning.
GIF map Greece ( )

Eric Feigl-Ding {economist epidemiologist} @DrEricDing | 2:13 AM · Sep 5, 2023
🌀**MEDICANE**—A very rare hurricane/cyclone-like storm in the Mediterranean Sea, due to very hot waters from Europe’s 2023 heat dome, may be emerging this week, that could dump astronomical amounts of rain and cause flooding in Greece 🇬🇷. Extreme forecasts of well over 500 mm of rain (less likely, but some models suggest maybe up to 2000 mm / 78 inches of rain) in 48 hours! (See right graph). Hurricane-level wind gust also recorded already. But the extreme volume of rain could cause severe amount of flooding. #Medicane

A potential Medicane is Forecast to form in the Ionian Sea this week, posing a heavy Rainfall threat for Sicily and Malta. Major Flooding Event Expected for Greece
Marko Korosec | 04/09/2023

4) The wildfires in Greece were pretty horrendous too. This heat dome continues to cause havoc.
Graph ( )

Redigerat: sep 7, 5:49 am

Zack Labe @ZLabe | 7:23 AM · Sep 6, 2023:
Climate Scientist (Atmospheric) PhD | Postdoc at Princeton and @NOAA_GFDL

🚨 Last month was the hottest August on record globally
🚨 Last three months are the hottest June-August on record globally

A summary of conditions in the ERA5 dataset can be found at

Line graph time series of (g)lobal-mean surface temperature for August, from 1850 to 2023 using Berkeley Earth (1850-2022), ERA5 (1940-2023), GISTEMP (1880-2022), HadCRUT5 (1850-2022), JRA-3Q (1948-2022) and NOAAGlobalTemp (1850-2022).

There is interannual variability and a record long-term increasing trend.

Copernicus ECMWF and 3 others
Graphs Aug temp 1860-2023 ( )

sep 7, 6:31 am

Why the media too often ignores the connection between climate change and meat
The burger-sized hole in climate change coverage, explained.
Kenny Torrella @KennyTorrella | Jul 1, 2023

...The tens of billions of chickens, pigs, cows, and other animals we raise and slaughter for food annually account for around 15 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, primarily from cow burps, animal manure, and the fertilizer used to grow the corn and soy they eat. More than one-third of the Earth’s habitable land is used for animal farming — much of it cleared for cattle grazing and growing all that corn and soy — making animal agriculture the leading cause of deforestation and biodiversity loss globally...

...the meat lobby downplays and in some cases suppresses the full extent to which burgers, ribs, and chicken nuggets pollute the planet...

...Food is a touchy subject, and telling people to change what they eat can turn some readers hostile.

... President Joe Biden’s landmark climate legislation, the Inflation Reduction Act, included $20 billion for “climate-smart” farming, but there’s scant evidence that the IRA’s agricultural initiatives will meaningfully reduce emissions, especially since they don’t touch emissions from livestock.

... at least 70 percent of the water diverted from the Colorado River for agriculture is used to grow feed for beef and dairy cows, and animal products generally require much more water than plant-based foods.

...Experts say that if we don’t change what we eat — especially reducing beef and dairy — we can’t meet the Paris climate agreement of limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius or less...

sep 7, 10:10 am

>94 margd: contd.

1,5-degree increase as Earth records three hottest months
IT-ONLINE | Sep 7, 2023

...August as a whole is estimated to have been around 1.5°C warmer than the pre-industrial average for 1850-1900 ...this is happening before we see the full warming impact of the El Niño event, which typically plays out in the second year after it develops...

sep 7, 10:31 am

Climate Breakdown Has Begun with Hottest Summer on Record, Secretary-General Warns, Calling on Leaders to ‘Turn Up the Heat Now’ for Climate Solutions
UN | 6 Sept 2023

The following statement by UN Secretary-General António Guterres was issued today:

The dog days of summer are not just barking, they are biting.

Our planet has just endured a season of simmering — the hottest summer on record. Climate breakdown has begun.

Scientists have long warned what our fossil fuel addiction will unleash. Our climate is imploding faster than we can cope with extreme weather events hitting every corner of the planet.

Surging temperatures demand a surge in action. Leaders must turn up the heat now for climate solutions. We can still avoid the worst of climate chaos — and we don’t have a moment to lose.

Redigerat: sep 7, 11:29 am

>93 margd: Greek floods... :(

Volcaholic 🌋 @volcaholic1 | 5:14 AM · Sep 7, 2023
Heartbreaking video coming from Palamas Kardista in #Greece this morning. One resident says.....

"Since 4 o'clock in the morning, the village bells have not rung, 112 has not been called. People have been overwhelmed in their homes. Right now I'm calling for help from the other side. My house is high and I have gone up high. Residents from the surrounding houses have come to my house. People have died, drowned. Directly in the opposite house, a man lived inside alone. I couldn't help him. His house fell, he was overwhelmed. I can't go find him. The dam of the Cross has been broken, the water is coming with enormous speed. Every 10 minutes you hear a house collapsing. Many people are trapped. I have asked for help, they told us in 2 hours they will send a boat. Right now it's like there's an endless sea."

#ClimateEmergency #ClimateActionNow #Κακοκαιρία #Παλαμας #Καρδιτσα
0:45 ( )

Palamas Kardista in #Greece this morning. Just awful!
0:06 ( )

Redigerat: sep 8, 2:30 am

Extremes precipitation & floods in Greece and Hong Kong, Category 5 Hurricane Lee in Atlantic... ;(
Insurance industry must be close to folding?

Romain Chauvet @RomainChvt | 10:32 AM · Sep 7, 2023:
Canadian Journalist based in Athens, Greece

Images impressionnantes et terrifiantes des inondations à Karditsa, en #Grèce. #καρδιτσα #κακοκαιρια
Translate post: Impressive and terrifying images of the floods in Karditsa, in #Grèce . #καρδιτσα #κακοκαιρια

0:31 ( )

Jim yang @yangyubin1998 | 1:06 PM · Sep 7, 2023:

In Chai Wan, Hong Kong, under the heavy rain of 150 mm in one hour, the streets have turned into raging rivers!

0:06 ( )

Nahel Belgherze @WxNB_ | 2:22 PM · Sep 7, 2023:
Posts mainly about Severe Weather, Climate, Satellite imagery, Radar data - Based in the French Alps

JUST IN: Hong Kong just recorded its heaviest hourly rainfall on record with 158.1 mm 6.2 inches between 11 PM and midnight (HKT). Records date back to 1884 (139 years ago). A rare “Black Rainstorm Warning Signal” has been issued by the HKO observatory.
GIF ( )

Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf | 10:52 PM · Sep 7, 2023:

Breaking: #HurricaneLee is now a Cat 5 storm, with winds of 160 mph. In 30 hrs it intensified 90 mph, 2-3X the criteria for rapid intensification. In the past 8 years, there have been 8 cat 5’s in the Atl. Comparing 1970-2000 with 2001-2022, cat 5 frequency has tripled! 1/
0:08 weather map ( )

#Lee is forecast to reach 180 mph by morning!! The uptick in cat 5’s is due partly to hotter water due to the decrease in aerosols and increase in greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels. For every 1 degree F inc. in water temp, potential storm intensity can inc by 10% 2/

Some argue that we’ve been in an active Atlantic AMO cycle since the 1990s. But others argue the active/ inactive cycles are merely a reflection of aerosol (pollution) changes since the mid 1900s which were high (cool water) then decreased in the 80s, 90s to today (warmer water)

Michael Link @MLink01: For historical purposes @WeatherProf , are hurricanes listed by their max category ever attained or by the category when they eye makes landfall? So will Lee always be recorded as having been a Cat 5?

Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf: Listed both ways. Forecast to reach 180. If it does it will join 8 other storms that had 180 mph winds or more.

Andy Hazelton @AndyHazelton | 12:53 PM · Sep 7, 2023
Associate Scientist at UM/CIMAS and NOAA AOML/HRD. This is a personal account and tweets do not represent the opinions of NOAA or UM.

HAFS {Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System} is showing Lee approaching the limits of what an Atlantic hurricane could even theoretically be. This might be the strongest 850-hPa wind forecast I've ever seen from a numerical model not named the 3-km NAM {} 😂

map Lee ( )

Michael Lowry @MichaelRLowry | 11:13 PM · Sep 7, 2023:
Hurricane Specialist & Storm Surge Expert @WPLGLocal10 ABC Miami. Alum @NWSNHC, FEMA, @weatherchannel, @UCAR_CPAESS, @DeptofDefense, @FLSERT.

Hurricane #Lee is in elite company tonight. Fewer than 1% of all tropical cyclone "fixes" ever attain Category 5 strength. Lee is the farthest southeast we've ever observed a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic since records began 172 years ago. Lorenzo (2019) the farthest east.

map Cat 5 hurricanes ( )

Redigerat: sep 14, 8:49 am

Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson | 8:02 AM · Sep 14, 2023:
Retired professor of mathematics and computer science...

What's the most important graphic to show the true f&%kery of our predicament?

It's not the huge number of local catastrophes, new highs for greenhouse gasses, record low sea-ice extent, record global or sea surface temperature.

It's this -- the Earth Energy Imbalance:
Graph ( )

Global electricity consumption 1980-2022 ((in terawatt-hours))
Published by Statista Research Department, Sep 7, 2023

The world's electricity consumption has continuously grown over the past half a century, reaching approximately 25,500 terawatt-hours in 2022. Between 1980 and 2022, electricity consumption more than tripled, while the global population reached almost eight billion people. Growth in industrialization and electricity access across the globe have further boosted electricity demand.

sep 14, 9:54 am

Katherine Richardson et al. 2023. Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries. Science Advances 13 Sep 2023
Vol 9, Issue 37. DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adh2458

This planetary boundaries framework update finds that six of the nine boundaries are transgressed, suggesting that Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity. Ocean acidification is close to being breached, while aerosol loading regionally exceeds the boundary. Stratospheric ozone levels have slightly recovered. The transgression level has increased for all boundaries earlier identified as overstepped. As primary production drives Earth system biosphere functions, human appropriation of net primary production is proposed as a control variable for functional biosphere integrity. This boundary is also transgressed. Earth system modeling of different levels of the transgression of the climate and land system change boundaries illustrates that these anthropogenic impacts on Earth system must be considered in a systemic context.

The planetary boundaries framework ... identifies nine processes that are critical for maintaining the stability and resilience of Earth system as a whole...

Fig. 1. Current status of control variables for all nine planetary boundaries.

Biosphere integrity
Climate change
Novel entities (synthetic chems, radioactivityl}
Stratospheric ozone depletion
Freshwater change
Atmospheric aerosol loading {desert}
Ocean acidification {Ca}
Land system change {forests}
Biogeochemical flows {N,P}

Redigerat: sep 18, 2:59 am

Climate change: Thousands march in NYC ahead of UN summit
DW | 9/17/2023

Protesters are demanding an end to fossil fuels as the UN warned that its 2015 sustainable development goals were not going to be met. The march comes just ahead of the UN General Assembly.

...The 75,000 people who marched on Sunday came from about 700 organizations and activist groups, and drew people from all spheres.

...Ahead of the upcoming UN COP28 climate summit {}, over 80 nations aim to establish an accord to progressively eliminate coal, oil, and gas.

A recent UN study cautioned about escalating global warming risks, emphasizing the need for comprehensive actions and drastic emission reductions, including significantly reducing coal-powered energy by 2030.

...On Monday, the UN Sustainable Development Goals Summit starts, aiming for a "global rescue plan," according to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. He noted that merely 15% of the sustainable development objectives adopted in 2015 were likely to be achieved, with some metrics heading in reverse.

To reach the 2015 target of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, it's essential to eliminate the use of fossil fuels that can't have their emissions captured or compensated...

Redigerat: sep 18, 3:05 am

Some good news, but unfortunately not nearly enough:

Assaad Razzouk @AssaadRazzouk | 11:48 AM · Sep 10, 2023
Good climate news this week
1 Germany passes boiler ban law
2 Indonesia, Singapore in $20b renewables corridor
3 US cancels 7 arctic oil and gas leases
4 Amazon deforestation down 66% in August
5 California EVs up to 22% of new cars
6 LEDs cross 50% of global lighting sales

Assaad Razzouk @AssaadRazzouk · Sep 3
Good climate news this week
1 EU to seek COP28 deal on phasing out fossil fuels
2 China hits peak gasoline
3 UK may exit Energy Charter treaty
4 Saudi Aramco target of UN human rights probe
5 Southern Africa elephant population up
6 Malaysia National Energy Transition Roadmap out

California sues five of the world's largest oil companies — ExxonMobil, Shell, BP, ConocoPhillips and Chevron
ABC Australia | 16 Sep 2023

...The suit seeks the creation of an abatement fund to pay for future damages caused by climate disasters in California

...It alleges the firms caused billions of dollars in damages and misled the public by minimising the risks from fossil fuels, according to a court filing.

...The civil case was filed in superior court in San Francisco against ExxonMobil, Shell, BP, ConocoPhillips and Chevron, which is headquartered in California.

..."Oil and gas company executives have known for decades that reliance on fossil fuels would cause these catastrophic results, but they suppressed that information from the public and policymakers by actively pushing out disinformation on the topic," the 135-page complaint read....

sep 20, 1:27 pm

The White House
American climate Corps

President Biden is announcing a new initiative to train young people in high-demand skills for jobs in the clean energy economy. The American Climate Corps will put a new generation of Americans to work conserving our lands and waters, bolstering community resilience, advancing environmental justice, deploying clean energy, implementing energy efficient technologies, and tackling climate change. American Climate Corps members will gain the skills necessary to access good-paying jobs that are aligned with high-quality employment opportunities after they complete their paid training or service program...

Deploy low-cost, reliable, clean energy
Implement energy-efficient solutions to help families save money on their energy bills
Rebuild coastal wetlands to protect coastal communities from storm surges and flooding
Manage forests to prevent catastrophic wildfires
Protect America’s public lands and waters for future generations
Enhance agricultural systems to protect natural resources and conserve water during droughts
Advance environmental justice to ensure all Americans live in healthy, thriving communities...

Redigerat: sep 27, 9:56 am

Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson | 12:18 PM · Sep 20, 2023:
Retired professor of mathematics and computer science

Code UFB!!!
Holy f&%k!!!
Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay tomorrow -- last day of Winter in the Southern Hemisphere (Spring starts on Saturday).
Widespread 45°C+ (113°F+).

Map ( )

sep 25, 9:33 am

As the Arctic Ocean loses ice, noisy ships enter...

What's That Sound? How Underwater Noise Hurts Arctic Wildlife (6:10)
Oceans North | Jul 7, 2023

sep 25, 11:10 am

Visualizing a summer of extremes in 7 charts
The past four months of 2023 have shattered all prior records by a truly staggering margin
Zeke Hausfather | Sep 25, 2023

...This figure, perhaps more than any so far, emphasizes just how extreme global temperatures have been since June, with September being the most anomalous month so far out of an already extremely anomalous summer: ...

sep 25, 5:17 pm

Extreme Temperatures Around The World @extremetemps | 3:35 PM · Sep 25, 2023:

Extraordinary, historic heat wave in #Mexico

The temperature at Chinipas yesterday rose to 47.5C/118F,we are at world record levels for end of September!
Only Makkah ,Saudi Arabia ever recorded such temperature in the last week of September.
BTW Iraq today was close with 46.6C

Map, Mexico ( )

sep 27, 9:50 am

As winter ends in the S hemisphere:

Dr. Robert Rohde @RARohde | 7:18 AM · Sep 27, 2023:
Lead Scientist @BerkeleyEarth. Physics PhD & data nerd. Usually focused on climate change, fossil fuels, & air quality issues.

The seasonal Antarctic sea ice has likely peaked according to @NSIDC (National Snow and Ice Data Center, Colorado), by far the lowest and one of the earliest peaks on record.
No one, as far as I am aware, predicted what we've seen this year.
But the real question is whether this behavior will repeat in coming years.

Graph, antarctic sea ice extent ( )

Redigerat: sep 29, 10:43 am

The Bold Idea To Move Millions To Climate Havens
How the U.S. can motivate people to migrate before climate change causes chaos in their cities.
Justin H. Vassallo | September 27, 2023

...In 2022, climate change and climate-related disasters led nearly 33 million people to flee their homes and accounted for over half of all new numbers of people displaced within their countries, according to data from the United Nations’ High Commissioner for Refugees and the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre. This amount will surely increase over the next few decades.

Outside the United States and Canada, the World Bank predicts that climate change will compel as many as 216 million people to move elsewhere in their countries by 2050; other reports suggest that more than one billion people will become refugees because of the impacts of a warming planet on developing countries, which may exacerbate or even precipitate civil wars and interstate armed conflict.

A 2020 report by ProPublica, meanwhile, estimates that at least 13 million Americans will be forced to migrate from coastal areas and that wildfires and other natural catalysts could potentially multiply that amount by tens of millions.

... encouraging a disproportionate amount of manufacturing investment in the South could be ill-conceived given the risk of annual, prolonged heatwaves with increasing wet-bulb temperatures and multifarious floods that threaten to severely undercut the region’s future labor productivity.

...Conditions that prompt sudden evacuations could swamp neighboring regions with needs that cannot be readily met by their existing housing stock, educational facilities, commercial districts and supply chains.

...Ruinous flooding from rising seas and storm surges in coastal cities will be another major catalyst of domestic migration.

...modeling suggests that cooler regions along the old manufacturing core and Northern farm belts could be suited to helping a national green economy mature...the interior Northeast and Midwest, as well as the least humid parts of the Upland South..

Redigerat: sep 30, 11:18 am

New York City brought to halt by heavy rainfall, floods
DW | 29 Sept 2023

...unprecedented downpour, saw parts of Brooklyn experience almost 7 inches (18 centimeters) of rain and nearly 8 inches at JFK Airport — breaking records set in 1960 by Hurricane Donna...

0:42 ( )

okt 3, 4:50 am

Hobbs cancels lease for Saudi-owned alfalfa farm in Arizona
Katherine Davis-Young | October 2, 2023 - 5:18pm

...Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs says the state is terminating a lease for a Saudi-owned company that’s been farming alfalfa in Arizona. The company has been criticized for growing a water-intensive crop for export amid the Southwest’s historic drought.

Fondomonte Arizona, LLC has four leases on state trust land in La Paz county. In a press release, Hobbs said she directed the State Land Department to inspect Fondomonte’s farms. She said those inspections turned up some violations of the lease agreements dating back to at least 2016.

She said one of the four leases will be terminated and the other three won’t be renewed when they expire early next year...

Redigerat: okt 3, 3:09 pm

>105 margd: contd.

Scores of dolphins die in Amazon amid severe drought, heat
DW | Oct 3, 2023

Over 100 dolphins have been found dead in a tributary of Amazon river in Brazil this past week. Experts suspects the deaths may have been caused by severe drought and rising heat.

At least 70 of the remains were found floating on Thursday when the temperature of Lake Tefe's water reached 39 degrees Celsius (102 degrees Fahrenheit) — more than 10 degrees higher than the usual average for this time of the year.

Low river levels during a severe drought have heated water in stretches to temperatures that are intolerable for the dolphins, experts believe.

Following a decline for a few days, the water temperature again soared to 37 degrees Celsius (99 Fahrenheit) on Sunday.

The region around the lake is a key habitat for mammals and other aquatic species. Large amounts of fish have also died according to local media reports.

The scientists are working to rule out other causes like bacterial infections as they do not know with certainty that drought and heat are to blame for the rise in dolphin mortality.

"We have around 900 river dolphins and 500 Tucuxis (in the Tefe Lake) and in one week we have already lost around 120 animals between the two of them, which could represent 5% to 10% of the population," Miriam Marmontel, a researcher from the Mamiraua environmental institute, said.

okt 3, 3:54 pm

>112 margd: It’s about damn time!

okt 4, 1:58 am

>114 2wonderY: yup!

>108 margd: Mexico heat, contd.

Toreti, A. et al. 2023. Drought in central America and Mexico - August 2023, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2023-09-26, 17p, doi:10.2760/00589, JRC135033

A severe drought is currently affecting Central America and Mexico, due to an extremely dry period. The spatial-temporal evolution of the ongoing drought shows a shift from south-east to north-west.
Heatwaves are exacerbating the impact of the lack of precipitation, and the average temperature is abnormally high for the season.
Soil moisture and vegetation conditions are severely affected, with negative anomalies over large areas of the region.
Crop damages and losses have caused the Acute Food Insecurity to rise to crisis level (i.e. IPC Phase 3)1 in most of Central America.
Wildfire danger is high mainly in the central-northern part of Mexico.
The drought is affecting both navigation, including in the Panama Canal, and energy production, with severe economic impacts. River flow forecasts suggest that these impacts are likely to get worse.
Seasonal forecasts point definitively to warmer than average months. As for precipitation, the uncertainty is high. Close monitoring of the drought evolution, and proper water use plans, are needed.

Redigerat: okt 5, 4:19 am

Linda Shi and Susanne Moser 2023. Transformative climate adaptation in the United States: Trends and prospects (Review). Science 29 Apr 2021 Vol 372, Issue 6549 DOI: 10.1126/science.abc8054

Adapting to the new normal
Successfully responding to the impacts of climate change will be a challenge for many communities, especially cities. Considering the situation in the United States, Shi and Moser examine how stakeholders can help to build urban resilience even in the absence of federal leadership. They discuss how local and state governments, private industry, and civil society can engage to adapt to the extreme weather events and other consequences of changing climate that are expected in the future. Preparing for these looming issues requires coherent, cohesive, and collective responses across all scales and sectors of society.

Structured Abstract...

Paywall :(

See figure at

Redigerat: okt 5, 10:08 am

Earth is on track for its hottest year yet, according to a European climate agency
The Associated Press | October 5, 20232:42 AM ET

...{the European Space Agency's Copernicus Climate Change Service} calculated that the average temperature for September was 16.38 degrees Celsius (61.48 degrees Fahrenheit), which broke the old record set in September 2020 by a whopping half-degree Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit). That's a huge margin in climate records.

"This (temperature anomaly {departure from normal}) is not a fancy weather statistic, it's a death sentence for people and ecosystems. It destroys assets, infrastructure, harvest." - Friederike Otto, Climate Scientist, Imperial College of London

...Earth is on track for its hottest year on record, about 1.4 degrees Celsius (2.5 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than pre-industrial times...

Ed Hawkins @ed_hawkins | 3:00 AM · Oct 5, 2023:
Climate scientist, NCAS/University of Reading | IPCC AR6 Lead Author | MBE | Warming Stripes:

Surprising. Astounding. Staggering. Unnerving. Bewildering. Flabbergasting. Disquieting. Gobsmacking. Shocking. Mind boggling.
Graph Sept temp anomalies 1940-2023 ( )

okt 7, 1:34 am

Sadly, It's Not 'Just Another Summer.' We Must End the Fossil Fuel Industry | Opinion
Peter Kalmus , Climate Scientist | 10/4/23

...There is now no conceivable way we can stay under 1.5°C of mean global heating. We probably still had that chance a few years ago, but it has been squandered out of political cowardice, media distraction, apathy, a steady diet of false hope and false solutions, and above all a continued stream of disinformation and legalized bribes from the fossil fuel industry. We're currently at about 1.3°C and rising at two tenths a degree per decade. As a scientist studying extreme heat, I dread the first time we get a heat wave that kills more than a million people over the course of a few days, something I now feel is inevitable. But—if we continue to burn fossil fuels—it won't stop there. We will NOT reach a "new normal" (this phrase has done so much to undermine climate urgency) where heat waves kill "only" a million people. If we continue to burn more fossil fuels, it will get hotter, until at some point heat waves kill 2 million people, and then 3 million, and then 10 million. And that's just extreme heat. Wildfires, floods, migration, food system collapse—it's all driven by increasing global heat, so it will all get worse as well. All at the same time.

I don't know how to be any clearer: This is why we must get off this path as soon as we can. And because the fossil fuel industry is the cause of the global heating that's driving all this, the only real way to make a change is to ramp down and then end the fossil fuel industry. We will not solve things by direct air capture, nuclear fusion, or any other whiz-bang technology. We must accept that these are distractions. We must directly confront this system of deeply inequitable and deadly fossil-fueled capitalism, which has become a planet-sized runaway diesel engine...

okt 7, 9:39 am

Doomsday* author’s analysis: How climate change will cause the collapse of civilization
Marshall Brain — October 6, 2023

...the truly catastrophic stuff is coming. It is inevitable. At this point it is unstoppable...

* The Doomsday Book: The Science Behind Humanity's Greatest Threats

okt 8, 3:22 am

Large ozone hole detected over Antarctica
Fred Schwaller | October 6, 2023

The ozone hole over Antarctica is one of the biggest on record, roughly three times the size of Brazil. It's a natural phenomenon, but scientists are concerned climate change could begin reopening ozone holes.

...The size of the ozone hole over Antarctica fluctuates each year, opening each year in August and closing again in November or December...the ozone hole opens up because of the rotation of the Earth causing specials winds over the closed landmass of Antarctica. "The winds create a mini climate, creating a shield over Antarctica preventing it from mixing with surrounding air. When the winds die down, the hole closes," {Claus Zehner, the European Space Agency's mission manager for Copernicus Sentinel-5P} said.

What caused the giant ozone hole this year?
Scientists believe this year's big ozone hole could be due to the volcanic eruptions at Hunga Tonga in Tonga during December 2022 and January 2023...

However, {Jim Haywood, a professor of atmospheric science at University of Exeter in the UK} said there are signs that rising global temperatures could be having an impact on ozone holes. "Our mitigation of the ozone hole was working well since the 1980s, but in 2020 we were taken by surprise when the 2020 ozone hole was very deep and long lasting"...

The same was true for 2021. Research showed that the main reason for the large ozone hole in 2020 was due to the wildfires in southeastern Australia that year.

Haywood said as the climate crisis carries on, with the Earth continuing to warm, fires are getting more common and more devastating around the globe. "It's been an amazing bad year for boreal fires in the Northern Hemisphere this year. If that continues to happen, we get more smoke injected into the stratosphere, and we might get more ozone depletion coming back," said Haywood.

...Haywood said there is evidence ozone holes changes the progression of the seasons. "If you get ozone depletion, it takes longer for the hole to repair. This means you have a longer, more drawn out polar vortex, so you'll have wintertime lasting that little bit longer"...

Redigerat: okt 8, 7:48 am

Jeff Masters @DrJeffMasters | 9:19 PM · Oct 7, 2023:
Hurricane scientist for NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-90. Co-founded Weather Underground in 1995. Semi-retired, I write about extreme weather and climate change.

Another Mississippi River record! Previous record was last October, with a depth of -10.75′. Tough break for farmers to see significant reductions in barge transport of crops during the peak part of harvest season 2 years in a row. Barges carry about 60% of U.S. grain exports.

NWS Memphis @NWSMemphis · Oct 6
The Mississippi River at Memphis hit an all-time record low stage of -10.97’ on 9/14/2023. This data is preliminary from the @MemphisDistrict.

Water also needed to beat back salt water intrusion at mouth of Mississippi...

At the end of the Mississippi, a saltwater wedge overwhelms a community
Brady Dennis | 8 Oct 2023

Redigerat: okt 10, 12:09 pm

Many more small (river, coastal) cruise ships these days in the St Lawrence Seaway...makes me wonder about the condition of rivers elsewhere...

Sérgio Freire @sergiofreire | 4:27 PM · Oct 6, 2023:

Translated from Portuguese by Google
The extent of the drought in Amazonas {NW of Brazil}. The top photo is now {spring}. The other, from July {winter}.

from Manaus, Brazil

SatWorld @or_bit_eye | 2:47 PM · Oct 9, 2023:

🔴🚱⚠️🇧🇷 The catastrophic #drought that is affecting #Amazon in #Brasil is well depicted in this impressive #Sentinel2 view of #RioNegro river,the largest tributary of Amazon River:the river bed is largely dry and made of sand,in some point for a width of 16km.

World Meteorological Organization and 9 others
Satellite photo Rio Negro ( )

okt 10, 4:59 pm

Kyle Griffin @kylegriffin1 | 4:55 PM · Oct 10, 2023:
Executive Producer. MSNBC's @AymanMSNBC and @MehdiHasanShow .

The Supreme Court has rejected an appeal by 12 Republican-led states — refusing to let them challenge the Biden admin's use of estimates for the social cost of greenhouse gas emissions when issuing regulations.

okt 11, 2:16 am

Coinciding with a century of climate change in the Arctic, a hybrid and less genetically diverse puffin colony has evolved in Norway within the last 100 years:

Oliver Kersten et al. 2023. Hybridization of Atlantic puffins in the Arctic coincides with 20th-century climate change. Science Advances 6 Oct 2023 Vol 9, Issue 40 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adh1407

The Arctic is experiencing the fastest rates of global warming, leading to shifts in the distribution of its biota and increasing the potential for hybridization. However, genomic evidence of recent hybridization events in the Arctic remains unexpectedly rare. Here, we use whole-genome sequencing of contemporary and 122-year-old historical specimens to investigate the origin of an Arctic hybrid population of Atlantic puffins (Fratercula arctica) on Bjørnøya, Norway. We show that the hybridization between the High Arctic, large-bodied subspecies F. a. naumanni and the temperate, smaller-sized subspecies F. a. arctica began as recently as six generations ago due to an unexpected southward range expansion of F. a. naumanni. Moreover, we find a significant temporal loss of genetic diversity across Arctic and temperate puffin populations. Our observations provide compelling genomic evidence of the impacts of recent distributional shifts and loss of diversity in Arctic communities during the 20th century.

okt 11, 2:48 am

Environmental faith groups laud pope's climate exhortation, US bishops offer quieter response
Jack Jenkins | October 9, 2023

...Unlike the pope's earlier encyclical, which offered a sweeping overview of various scientific and economic causes of climate change, the new, 12-page Laudate Deum,* unveiled on Oct. 4 to coincide with the feast of St. Francis of Assisi, focuses on what Francis argues are the persistent failures of global governments to respond to global warming over the past eight years.

"With the passage of time, I have realized our responses have not been adequate, while the world in which we live is collapsing and may be nearing the breaking point," Francis writes, later noting that the world's poor are most likely to be impacted by the ravages of climate change. the introduction to Laudate Deum, Francis made sure to refer to a 2019 USCCB declaration on climate change, commending the American bishops for having "expressed very well" the "social meaning of our concern about climate change." The USCCB has also issued statements in support of climate-focused legislation, such as President Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act, and criticized Supreme Court decisions that limited the power of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to regulate greenhouse gas emissions.

..."If we consider that emissions per individual in the United States are about two times greater than those of individuals living in China, and about seven times greater than the average of the poorest countries, we can state that a broad change in the irresponsible lifestyle connected with the Western model would have a significant long-term impact," Francis writes...

* Huge. Hopefully not too late:
"25. Contrary to this technocratic paradigm, we say that the world that surrounds us is not an object of exploitation, unbridled use and unlimited ambition. Nor can we claim that nature is a mere “setting” in which we develop our lives and our projects. For “we are part of nature, included in it and thus in constant interaction with it”, and thus “we {do} not look at the world from without but from within”."
"67. The Judaeo-Christian vision of the cosmos defends the unique and central value of the human being amid the marvellous concert of all God’s creatures, but today we see ourselves forced to realize that it is only possible to sustain a “situated anthropocentrism”. To recognize, in other words, that human life is incomprehensible and unsustainable without other creatures. For “as part of the universe… all of us are linked by unseen bonds and together form a kind of universal family, a sublime communion which fills us with a sacred, affectionate and humble respect”."
"73. “Praise God” is the title of this letter. For when human beings claim to take God’s place, they become their own worst enemies."

Oct 4, 2023 | 12 p

1. The Global Climate Crisis
Resistance and confusion
Human causes
Damages and risks

2. A Growing Technocratic Paradigm
Rethinking our use of power
The ethical goad

3. The Weakness of International Politics
Reconfiguring multilateralism

4. Climate Conferences: Progress and Failures

5. What to Expect from COP28 in Dubai?

6. Spiritual Motivations
Journeying in communion and commitment

Redigerat: okt 11, 3:26 am

Climate Defiance @ClimateDefiance | 7:04 PM · Oct 10, 2023:
Brand-new, youth-led group using direct action to resist fossil fuels.

Breaking: we just chased Secretary Pete Buttigieg off the stage at the Meyerhoff Symphony.
Petro Pete is a coward. As we write he is ramming down our throats the Sea Port and GulfLink oil terminals - each worse than Keystone.
We must resist him with all we've got. And we will.

1:35 ( )

okt 11, 8:28 am

Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson | 8:16 AM · Oct 11, 2023:
Retired professor of mathematics

Here's the good news ... and I say "good" in the sense that it's still horrible, just not as bad as it was 12 months ago.
At the present rate of decline, we should meet the Glasgow Pledge (30% reduction in yearly anthropogenic methane by 2030) by the year 2040.

Graph surface methane 1985-2023 ( )

okt 11, 1:44 pm

In Global First, Farm in Kenya to Produce Fossil-Free Fertilizer On Site
E360 Digest | October 11, 2023

The Kenya Nut Company, near Nairobi, will be the first farm in the world to produce fertilizer, on site, that’s free of fossil fuels.

...Typically, ammonia is made by stripping hydrogen from natural gas, not water, in a process that unleashes large volumes of heat-trapping carbon dioxide. Globally, the climate impact of ammonia production rivals that of air travel.

Because ammonia production relies so heavily on natural gas, it is also vulnerable to supply disruptions. Russia, a leading gas producer, is the world’s second-biggest maker of ammonia. Sanctions imposed after its invasion of Ukraine have hindered fertilizer exports, driving up prices globally. Farmers in East Africa have been hit especially hard.

...If produced on site, it could have the added benefit of insulating growers from supply shocks.

“The average bag of fertilizer in sub-Saharan Africa travels 10,000 kilometers,” Talus founder Hiro Iwanaga told Bloomberg. With a small green ammonia plant, like the one coming online in Kenya, “you can locally produce a critical raw material, carbon free.”

okt 12, 10:17 am

The Planet’s Big Blue Machine: Why the Ocean Engine Matters
The ocean is an enormous engine, turning heat energy into motion, says physicist Helen Czerski. But human activity is threatening that machine — depriving the seas of oxygen, increasing stratification, and potentially changing the currents that influence global weather.
Richard Schiffman | October 12, 2023

...In her new book, The Blue Machine: How the Ocean Works, British oceanographer and physicist Helen Czerski — a frequent science presenter on the BBC — offers a lyrical primer on the natural forces that power the global ocean and how human activities are putting some of these processes at risk. While reporting on the ocean often focuses on the well-known scourges of plastic, chemical pollution, and overfishing, Czerski examines our impacts on the physics of the ocean system, which she describes as a gigantic and highly complex engine.

...Czerski warned that critical ocean currents may slow down or change course as surface waters continue to warm. Oxygen levels in the sea have been declining, she said, potentially turning some parts of the sea into biological deserts...

...Czerski: One recent study predicted that what’s called the AMOC (the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) was going to shut down by 2025 because of instabilities. I think the general consensus is that that was based on an extrapolation of an idea that is quite far-fetched. But really the important bit isn’t that they said it will happen in 2025. Almost everyone agrees (that’s unlikely). The story is not that it might happen next year, or the year after, or 10 years after. It’s that (the possibility is) even on the table.

...Czerski: The ocean is heated from above by the sun, and warm water is buoyant. Mixing takes energy. The warmer you make this upper layer, the harder it is for water to get out of that layer...There is this paradox that there shouldn’t really be life in the ocean in a perfectly layered system because the sunlight is all at the top and the nutrients (including those needed by phytoplankton near the surface) are all down at the bottom....

okt 13, 11:21 am

Attaboys? (No EU countries on top-ten list?)

Assaad Razzouk @AssaadRazzouk | 9:08 AM · Oct 12, 2023:
Book: Saving the Planet Without the Bullshit: What They Don’t Tell You About the Climate Crisis {no touchstone, but it is on amazon}

Top 10 Planet Wreckers (% pollution from new oil and gas we can't have)
USA 37%
Canada 10%
Russia 9%
Iran 5%
China 5%
Brazil 3%
UAE (and #COP28 host) 3%
Australia 2%
Argentina 2%
Iraq 2%
These countries are making it IMPOSSIBLE to hold warming to 1.5°C

#ClimateEmergency #facts
Infographic ( )

okt 14, 7:44 am

>130 margd: The EU would be on the list if it was counted as a country. While the EU states are doing better than the US, it's not so much that some of them wouldn't be on the per capita list.

okt 16, 9:05 am

Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson | 8:37 AM · Oct 16, 2023:

JAXA {Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency } ice extent data was down for a couple of weeks. The f&%kery is back.
The latest update on Antarctic sea-ice extent from shows it's 6.1σ below the 1991-2020 mean. About 1-in-1,700,000,000. That's 'billion.'
And global media attention on the latest sea-ice crash? Crickets.

Graph Deviation Antarctic Sea Ice 1989-2123 ( )

Scary how much/quickly Earth climate can change: life might survive such shifts, but humans wouldn't? Look for NOVA's video on TV. Hopefully, later on web addresses below:

Ancient Earth: Frozen
PBS NOVA | Aired: 10/11/23
Season 50 Episode 12 | 53m 46s |

700 million years ago, Earth was a giant snowball cloaked in ice from pole to pole. How did life manage to hold on through this deadly deep freeze, find creative ways to bounce back, and thrive in the dramatically different world that emerged?

okt 17, 12:46 am

EU to push for phasing out fossil fuels at COP28
DW | 16 Oct 2023

...A group of 10 EU countries, including Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, and Slovenia, wanted the bloc to demand a phase-out of all fossil fuels.

Another group of 10 countries, including the Czech Republic, Hungary, Italy, Malta, Poland, and Slovakia, were more cautious and endorsed for a phase-out only of "unabated" fossil fuels, which would allow countries to continue burning coal, gas, and oil if they employ technology to capture the resulting emissions...

Press release
COP28: Council sets out EU position for UN climate summit in Dubai
Council of the EU | 16 October 2023

okt 20, 9:08 am

My interview with ⁦FAU Professor @colin_polsky about his research. Floridians understanding that climate change is happening has climbed to more than 90%, including 84% of self-identified Republicans. 71% think it should be taught in K-8 classrooms:

Floridians’ recognition of climate change is higher than U.S. as a whole, study says
Jeff Berardelli | Oct 19, 2023

Nahel Belgherze @WxNB_ | 10:52 AM · Oct 18, 2023:
Posts mainly about severe weather events worldwide. Based in the French Alps. {articles in Newsweek, etc.}

The Brazilian Amazon is experiencing one of its worst droughts on record.
The Negro River, one of Earth’s largest rivers by average discharge, has reached its lowest level since records began in 1902, according to data collected by the Port of Manaus.
GIF ( )

okt 20, 10:32 am

10 Billion Crabs In Alaska Slowly Starved To Death Due To Extreme Marine Heat Waves
Anna Louise | Oct 20, 2023

Redigerat: okt 21, 4:59 am

NASA Earth @NASAEarth | 1:14 PM · Oct 20, 2023:

Drought is fueling wildfires in the Amazon. Outbreaks were particularly intense in Amazonas, Para, and Amapá this year.

NASA’s Terra satellite captured smoke streaming from fires burning near Manaus on Oct. 11, 2023.

Satellite image of the area near Manaus, Brazil. A dense cloud of gray smoke covers the dark green landscape. In the upper right corner, is a brown wavy line: the Amazon River.
Satellite photo ( )

The SERVIR Amazon Fire Dashboard indicates that a mixture of fire types burned in the area at the time, including understory forest fires, a particularly harmful type of fire that can cause damage that persists for decades. This enhanced-color image was taken by #Landsat 9.
Satellite photo ( )

Redigerat: okt 23, 11:00 am

Yeray Santana-Falcón et al. 2023. Irreversible loss in marine ecosystem habitability after a temperature overshoot. Communications Earth & Environment volume 4, Article number: 343 (2023)

...Using a multi-model approach; we find that changes in ocean temperature and oxygen drive a centuries-long irreversible loss in the habitable volume of the upper 1000 m of the world ocean. These results suggest that the combined effect of warming and deoxygenation will have profound and long-lasting impacts on the viability of marine ecosystems, well after global temperatures have peaked.

...Summary and implications
... we show that the combined effect of ocean warming and deoxygenation after a temperature overshoot will impact ocean habitability by increasing the volume of waters that are unsuitable for supporting marine ecosystems at the expense of those waters that can hold them. We found this emerging picture is robust across a range of idealised and comprehensive overshoot simulations. Even if temperature returned to pre-industrial levels, as simulated in the idealised experiment, these habitability loss effects will likely be felt for centuries. The lagged effects of global warming on marine ecosystems after CO2 levels recover from overshoot found here underlines that mitigation actions should be promptly implemented as any delay in stabilising climate are highly likely to have an irreversible impact on marine ecosystems and the vital ecosystem services they provide.

okt 24, 4:59 am

Dr Kaitlin Naughten @kaitlinnaughten | 11:12 AM · Oct 23, 2023:
Scientist at the British Antarctic Survey, and author of the Climate Sight blog.

We’ve spent the last few years modelling the future of the Amundsen Sea in West Antarctica, and I regret to inform you that it’s not good news...

...So, it’s pretty bad news. But I would hate for people to read this story and think “we should give up on climate action, we’re all doomed anyway”. We must remember that West Antarctica is just one cause of sea level rise, and sea level rise is just one impact of climate change.

East Antarctica contains about ten times as much ice as the WAIS { West Antarctic Ice Sheet}, and we think it’s still stable as long as emissions don’t rise too much further. This is to say nothing of all of the other impacts of climate change which we could still prevent.

Also, 2100 is just the beginning of the story. We see ice shelf melting beginning to flatten out towards the end of the century in the Paris Agreement scenarios. So we likely still have control over the longer-term - into the 22nd century and beyond.

Very few people reading this will still be around after 2100, but that doesn’t mean we don’t have a responsibility to the generations alive then. We need to shift our focus to the longer term.

In the meantime, we should think more seriously about adaptation. Some amount of sea level rise is inevitable - in fact, it’s already happening.

This study is the most comprehensive set of future projections of Amundsen Sea ice shelf melting to date. Huge thanks to my co-authors Paul Holland and Jan De Rydt, and the media teams at @BAS_News {British Antarctic Survey} and @NatureClimate for spreading the word.

Kaitlin A. Naughten et al. 2023. Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century. Nature Climate Change (23 Oct 2023).

Ocean-driven melting of floating ice-shelves in the Amundsen Sea is currently the main process controlling Antarctica’s contribution to sea-level rise. Using a regional ocean model, we present a comprehensive suite of future projections of ice-shelf melting in the Amundsen Sea. We find that rapid ocean warming, at approximately triple the historical rate, is likely committed over the twenty-first century, with widespread increases in ice-shelf melting, including in regions crucial for ice-sheet stability. When internal climate variability is considered, there is no significant difference between mid-range emissions scenarios and the most ambitious targets of the Paris Agreement. These results suggest that mitigation of greenhouse gases now has limited power to prevent ocean warming that could lead to the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

...This study does not undermine the importance of mitigation in limiting the impacts of climate change. Mass loss from the WAIS is just one component of sea-level rise, and other regions of Antarctica are unlikely to lose substantial mass if current emissions targets are met30. This is to say nothing of the many impacts of climate change beyond sea-level rise. However, adaptation should now be considered more seriously as a priority in the world’s response to sea-level rise. The opportunity to preserve the WAIS in its present-day state has probably passed, and policymakers should be prepared for several metres of sea-level rise over the coming centuries. Internal climate variability, which we cannot predict or control, may be the deciding factor in the rate of ice loss during this time. Limiting the societal and economic costs of sea-level rise will require a combination of mitigation, adaptation and luck.

okt 28, 9:48 am

Global methane: "rate of increase slowing down"

Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson | 9:16 AM · Oct 28, 2023:
Retired professor of mathematics and computer science

For those who think that we are in a methane catastrophe via an eruption of methane from ESAS {East Siberian Arctic Shelf}, permafrost, Nord Stream or anywhere else, this is not true.
The rate of increase of new atmospheric methane has been declining for nearly a year.
We are doomed enough without fakery.

Graph, global methane change 1985-2023
( )

Please don't make basic mistakes on what I am saying here. The total amount of atmospheric methane is NOT decreasing. I'm talking about the rate of increase slowing down (a negative second derivative).

Please read this post that explains the graph:

okt 29, 9:01 am

In case you missed it, "Planet of the Humans" is free again on YouTube. Just fabulous, all of it. (Prof. Eliot Jacobson)

Michael Moore Presents: Planet of the Humans | Directed by Jeff Gibbs...
Michael Moore presents a film by Jeff Gibbs, Planet of the Humans, a documentary that dares to say what no one else will — that we are losing the battle to ...
7:24 AM · Oct 29, 2023

Planet of the Humans | Full Documentary (1:39:56)
Michael Moore | Apr 21, 2020

Michael Moore presents a film by Jeff Gibbs, Planet of the Humans, a documentary that dares to say what no one else will — that we are losing the battle to stop climate change on planet earth because we are following leaders who have taken us down the wrong road — selling out the green movement to wealthy interests and corporate America. This film is the wake-up call to the reality we are afraid to face: that in the midst of a human-caused extinction event, the environmental movement’s answer is to push for techno-fixes and band-aids. It's too little, too late.

okt 29, 9:05 am

House Speaker Mike Johnson’s First Big Bill Cuts Biden’s Climate Change Funding
Measure would end rebates for energy-efficient appliances
Slashes funds for other programs to counter climate change
Ari Natter | October 26, 2023

...The $58 billion measure, which funds the Energy Department and other agencies, rescinds more than $5.5 billion from the Inflation Reduction Act, including a $4.5 billion program for homeowners to switch to more energy efficient appliances and a $1 billion grant program to help states craft more stringent building energy codes.

The bill, approved Thursday on a 210-199 vote, also slashes the Energy Department’s energy efficiency and renewable energy office funding by 42% below last year’s levels and revokes $15 billion in loan authority from the department’s loan guarantee program.

...While the House measure isn’t expected to pass the Democratic Senate - or receive Biden’s signature - without changes, it represents the Republican’s starting point as they negotiate spending with Democrats ahead of a mid-November government shutdown deadline. Johnson has pledged the House will vote on the remaining spending bills in the coming weeks.

Republican members of the House Appropriations Committee drafted the cuts before Johnson was elected party leader... {Johnson last year criticized the Inflation Reduction Acts’s spending on climate and clean energy measures as “green energy slush funds.”}

okt 31, 2:29 am

Sameed Ahmed M. Khatana et al. 2023. Projected Change in the Burden of Excess Cardiovascular Deaths Associated With Extreme Heat by Midcentury (2036–2065) in the Contiguous United States. Circulation, Originally published 30 Oct 2023.

Background: Climate change is causing an increase in extreme heat. Individuals with cardiovascular disease are at high risk of heat-related adverse health effects. How the burden of extreme heat–associated cardiovascular deaths in the United States will change with the projected rise in extreme heat is unknown.

...Results: Extreme heat was associated with 1651 ... excess cardiovascular deaths per year from 2008 to 2019. By midcentury, extreme heat is projected to be associated with 4320 ... excess deaths annually, which is an increase of 162% ... under SSP2-4.5 {shared socioeconomic pathways}, and 5491 ... annual excess deaths, which is an increase of 233% ... under SSP5-8.5. Elderly adults are projected to have a 3.5 ... times greater increase in deaths in the SSP2-4.5 scenario compared with nonelderly adults. Non-Hispanic Black adults are projected to have a 4.6 ... times greater increase compared with non-Hispanic White adults. The projected change in deaths was not statistically significantly different for other race and ethnicity groups or between men and women.

Conclusions: By midcentury, extreme heat is projected to be associated with a significantly greater burden of excess cardiovascular deaths in the contiguous United States.

Redigerat: nov 3, 1:21 am

One prediction is that CO2 absorbed by the oceans will reduce pH (carbonic acid), preventing the absorption of calcium by invertebrates for their exoskeletons. Jellyfish will replace existing invertebrates and the fish, etc., that prey on them... Hopefully, UK jellyfish reports aren't early indication that such a shift is beginning. (I've eaten jellyfish "noodles"--mild, rubbery, marinated in soy sauce--but I much prefer other seafood!)

Oh Good – These 'Chunky' Jellyfish Are On The Rise In UK
Sarah-Louise Kelly | November 2, 2023

...between 1st October 2022 and 30th September 2023, says there has been a 32% increase in jellyfish sightings compared to the previous year.

While jellyfish sightings fluctuate every year, this past year has seen a massive 57% increase in sightings of ‘large blooms’.

The most frequently reported was the barrel jellyfish, which at 467 sightings accounted for 27% of all sightings — an increase of 21% compared to the previous year.

According to the MCS {Marine Conservation Authority}, this type of jellyfish is often called a ‘dustbin lid jellyfish’ due to the fact that they can grow up to a metre in size...

Dr Peter Richardson, Head of Ocean Recovery at the Marine Conservation Society, said: “Jellyfish populations are highly variable year on year, and depend on several environmental factors that are different each year, such as sea temperatures and storms...

Annual Wildlife Sightings Report - 2023
Marine Conservation Society

nov 3, 1:28 am

A pope educated in chemistry is uniquely positioned to appreciate the risk and challenges. Godspeed!

Pope Francis says he’ll spend 3 days in Dubai for COP28 climate conference
FRANCES D’EMILIO | November 1, 2023

...Francis has made the need for urgent care for the environment a hallmark priority of his papacy, penning a landmark encyclical about the Earth’s devastated natural resources in 2015.

In a sign of his frustration over often sputtering efforts by countries to try to put the brakes on climate change’s advance, last month, the pope shamed and challenged world leaders to commit to binding targets to slow the change before it’s too late.

Asked in the interview about the setbacks to climate goals, Francis replied: “Courage is needed.”

“We’re still in time to stop it” by demonstrating “a little responsibility.” He added: “We’ve been ugly, ugly here in caring for Creation.”

In the distinctly bleak update to the 2015 encyclical, Francis warned that God’s increasingly warming creation is fast reaching a “point of no return.” He heightened alarm about the “irreversible” harm to people and planet already underway and lamented that once again, the world’s poor and most vulnerable are paying the highest price...

nov 3, 2:04 am

Brian Brettschneider @Climatologist49 | 12:34 AM · Nov 3, 2023:
Alaska. PhD climatologist.

🚨🚨 BREAKING: October 2023 shattered the record for the warmest October globally. The gold standard reanalysis (ERA5) showed this October to be 0.85C above the 1991-2020 average. Nov-Dec would have to be cooler than ALL of the last Nov-Dec to NOT set a new annual record. 🚨🚨

Graph global temp departure Octobers 1991-2020

ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5)--ERA5 is the fifth generation ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis of the global climate covering the period from January 1940 to present. ERA5 is produced by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) at ECMWF.

ECMWF--The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by most of the nations of Europe. It is based at three sites: Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom; Bologna, Italy; and Bonn, Germany. It operates one of the largest supercomputer complexes in Europe and the world's largest archive of numerical weather prediction data. (Wikipedia)

nov 3, 2:24 am

The scale of the fires currently burning across northern Australia is pretty unfathomable.
This animation visualises just the last two months of fire captured by #DEAHotspots - for context, the map covers an area larger than France, Spain and Germany combined...
0:12 ( )

Near-real time hotspots available here:

Unfortunately the code was already written up from the last time we had fires at this scale during our 2019/20 "Black Summer" - surreal to be watching this unfold so early in the fire season

- Dr Robbi Bishop-Taylor 🛰️🌎🌊 @SatelliteSci | 9:34 PM · Nov 2, 2023:
Earth Observation Scientist at @GeoscienceAus. Using satellite data 🛰️ to study the earth 🌍 through space and time!

kosmi 🛰️🌍 @kosmi64833127
Have You thought about adding some smoke/aerosol layer? Just like it was done here 🙂⬇️
Western Canada fires and smoke plume 2023 (

nov 3, 1:59 pm

As Himalayan Glaciers Melt, a Water Crisis Looms in South Asia
Vaishnavi Chandrashekhar • October 3, 2022

Warmer air is thinning most of the vast mountain range’s glaciers, known as the Third Pole because they contain so much ice. The melting could have far-reaching consequences for flood risk and for water security for a billion {BILLION!!} people who rely on meltwater for their survival...

nov 4, 9:51 am

>145 margd: Oct temperatures, contd

Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson | 9:11 AM · Nov 4, 2023:
{Retired math & computer prof}

So, how crazy was this October?
The bar graph below shows the number of standard deviations October's average temperature was from the 1981-2010 October mean, for each year 1979-2023.
October, 2023 was 3.49σ over the mean, about 1-in-4200.

Bar graph, S.D. for Oct temps global mean 1979-2023

nov 5, 3:52 am

The ‘flickering’ of Earth systems is warning us: act now, or see our already degraded paradise lost
George Monbiot | 31 Oct 2023

..What we are living through today, unless sudden and drastic action is taken by us and our governments, is the sixth great Earth systems collapse.

In many Earth systems, we now see the kind of instability – systems theorists call it flickering – that might suggest they are approaching tipping points...

...Grim as our time on Earth is, future generations will look back on it as a golden age. A golden age of wildlife, of mild weather, stability, prosperity, of opportunities to act. Our living world is a grey shadow of what it once was, but a vibrant paradise in comparison with what it will be. Unless, unless.

Redigerat: nov 6, 7:28 am

We're toast... fossil fuels constitute a declining share of an increasing amount of total energy, meaning, an increase of fossil fuel use in absolute terms... :(

Glen Peters @Peters_Glen | 2:40 AM · Nov 6, 2023:
Energy, emissions, & climate @CICERO_klima. Projects @V_ERIFY_H2020, @4C_H2020, @ParisReinforce, @CoCO2_project, @iam_compact, @climatediamond, @EuPathfinder

Global Primary Energy Use
(Your regular reminder of what the energy system looks like)

The Climate Book by Greta Thunberg
Graph Global Primary Energy Use 1950-2023 ( )

And here are the relative shares, for those interested!
Petroleum products have had a declining share for decades, meaning they are growing slower than global energy use.
Graph Share of Primary Energy Use ( )

nov 6, 12:22 pm

John Gibbons @think_or_swim | 3:26 PM · Nov 5, 2023:
Freaking out - & speaking out - on #Climate. By campaigning journalist John Gibbons Blog:

Is it too much to expect that humans might take a break from butchering one another and instead concentrate on tackling our common enemy: an angry, overheated #climate system that is shaping up to wipe us all off the map like we never existed.

1:12 ( )
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