Russia: international moves, W responses, Putin...Ukraine...China...internal devts. 14

Several allies of the US have expressed unease at Washington's decision to supply Ukraine with cluster bombs. On Friday, the US confirmed it was sending the controversial weapons to Ukraine, with President Joe Biden calling it a "very difficult decision". In response, the UK, Canada, New Zealand and Spain all said they were opposed to the use of the weapons. Cluster bombs have been banned by more than 100 countries because of the danger they pose to civilians. They typically release lots of smaller bomblets that can kill indiscriminately over a wide area. The munitions have also caused controversy over their failure - or dud - rate. Unexploded bomblets can linger on the ground for years and then indiscriminately detonate...

How much blood must still flow for us to realize that war is never a solution, only destruction? In the name of God and in the name of the sense of humanity that dwells in every heart, I renew my call for an immediate ceasefire. Let there be a halt to arms, and let us seek the conditions for negotiations.

Medea Benjamin is one of the leading peace activists, organizers, and movement leaders in the {USA}. She is the co-founder of the women-led peace organization, CODEPINK (visit www.codepink.org) and Global Exchange (visit www.globalexchange.org). She also founded the Peace In Ukraine Coalition; Unfreeze Afghanistan (which advocates for the returning the $7 billion of Afghan funds frozen in U.S. banks); and ACERE, the Alliance for Cuba Engagement and Respect. Medea has been an advocate for peace and social justice full time for fifty years. New York Newsday describes her as “one of America’s most committed—and most effective—fighters for human rights.” The Los Angeles Times calls her “one of the high profile leaders of the peace movement.” Her most recent book is War In Ukraine: Making Sense of a Senseless Conflict.

On the dangers of American hubris... From Murmansk in the Arctic to Varna on the Black Sea, the armed camps of NATO and the Russian Federation menace each other across a new Iron Curtain. Unlike the long twilight struggle that characterized the Cold War, the current confrontation is running decidedly hot... the United States is fighting a proxy war with Russia... To most American policymakers, politicians, and pundits—liberals and conservatives, Democrats and Republicans—the reasons for this perilous situation are clear. Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, an aging and bloodthirsty authoritarian, launched an unprovoked attack on a fragile democracy... This conventional story is, in our view, both simplistic and self-serving. It fails to account for the well-documented—and perfectly comprehensible—objections that Russians have expressed toward NATO expansion over the past three decades, and obscures the central responsibility that the architects of U.S. foreign policy bear for the impasse. Both the global role that Washington has assigned itself generally, and America’s specific policies toward NATO and Russia, have led inexorably to war—as many foreign policy critics, ourselves among them, have long warned that they would... a good deal of evidence suggests that the {US} administration’s real—if only semi-acknowledged—objective is to topple Russia’s government... The policies that Washington has pursued toward Moscow and Kyiv, often under the banner of righteousness and duty, have created conditions that make the risk of nuclear war between the United States and Russia greater than it has ever been. Far from making the world safer by setting it in order, we have made it all the more dangerous.

Indigenous people and experts say Moscow’s military push and increased shipping and mining will destroy Arctic environment...

With Russian forces having laid down mines across broad areas of Ukraine, it is now the most mined country in the world, and the mines — in addition to unexploded bombs and artillery shells — are now prevalent in an area of Ukraine roughly the size of Florida... The drastic changes to the Ukrainian heartland not only threaten the country long-term... While there are ongoing efforts to remove the mines, also referred to as unexploded ordnance, the full scope of the situation will likely be unknown for some time as the conflict continues. However, according to data already collected by the Ukrainian government and humanitarian mine clearance organizations, the direness of the situation may last for generations. Greg Crowther, the director of programs for the Mines Advisory Group, a nongovernmental organization that aids individuals affected by land mines, told The Post that the mine situation in Ukraine was unlike anything seen in recent decades. "The sheer quantity of ordnance in Ukraine is just unprecedented in the last 30 years. There's nothing like it"... GLOBSEC, a global think tank, recently published a report revealing that about 30% of Ukraine, covering more than 67,000 square miles, had been subject to heavy fighting and would require thorough clearance operations. The report also detailed the lengths taken by Russian forces to make vast expanses of Ukrainian farmland either too difficult to navigate or effectively unusable...

"Dear Africans. Military coups are contagious. What is happening in Niger, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali, and Sudan happened in the 1960s. Then it spread," he said. "It is the last frontier of decolonisation. The Cold War is back. The Theatre of war in Africa and its resources"...

In a sign of growing hostility towards the West since the coup in Niger, a businessman proudly shows off his outfit in the colours of the Russian flag in the traditional heartland of deposed President Mohamed Bazoum. Since the coup, there has been a war of words between the military and the West. Mr Bazoum was a staunch ally of the West in the fight against militant Islamists, and was a strong economic partner as well. Niger hosts a French military base and is the world's seventh biggest producer of uranium. The fuel is vital for nuclear power with a quarter of it going to Europe, especially former colonial power France. Since General Abdourahamane Tchiani overthrew the president in a coup on 26 July, Russian colours have suddenly appeared on the streets.
Thousands took part in a protest in the capital Niamey on Sunday, with some waving Russian flags and even attacking the French embassy. It now seems this "movement" is spreading across the country...

expelling the Russians from towns, cities, and rural areas doesn't mean eliminating the threat altogether. Occupying soldiers have left behind a deadly and vicious problem for Ukraine — one that will cause it headaches for years and years to come: the widespread deployment of land mines and traps. Russia has practically mined everything, Ukrainian military engineers told Insider in a recent interview. And they often do so for no obvious tactical advantage. For instance, they cruelly hide explosives in everyday household items like refrigerators, toys, and even children's books. The goal is simply to inflict as much damage as possible... Between Russia's current defensive lines and the mines left behind from earlier phases of the war, Ukraine has effectively become the most mined country in the world — with some officials suggesting that over 40 percent of the country's territory may be contaminated. It could take centuries to clean up all the explosives at a cost of tens of billions of dollars. Some observers have even suggested it may never be completely demined...

A Ukrainian soldier who lost his leg in battle told The Washington Post that he wouldn't volunteer to fight for his country again — expressing a rare but growing pessimism around the war... Other people who spoke with The Washington Post also deviated from the prevailing Ukrainian sentiment of unity and defiance, citing the disappointing counteroffensive as a cause of their fading hopes.

ReSex: a charity that tries to help former soldiers with their sex lives, after suffering physical and mental trauma... they first had the idea for the project back in 2018, after reading about the issue for US soldiers. After securing funding with the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, they spoke to Ukrainian soldiers and experts, to ensure they were tailoring their help specifically to the men and women who need it. They faced some confusion from the public - and veterans - when they first asked for responses to questions online. "People are dying, you're thinking about sex!" Ivona says. They also had to confront some of their own preconceptions - like the false assumption that injured veterans would all be struggling with their sex lives. "There's sex in the hospital, sex at home, sex before procedures, sex after. There's a lot of good sex going on," Ivona says. "We were like, wow, OK, how can we be helpful here?". But overall, she says, the response has been overwhelmingly positive...

“This exercise was about reinforcing the ability to war fight from the lowest level, drawing from the lessons emerging from Ukraine and our Battlegroup experience in Estonia. The core idea was to incorporate these lessons to maximise our lethality, efficacy, and self-protection. The insights from Ukraine have underlined that foundational skills remain vital. This exercise provided an invaluable opportunity to fortify these skills”...

Some are spending life savings to stay out of the war... It is believed that tens of thousands of Ukrainian men have left the country illegally since the full-scale war with Russia started last February, many by paying bribes. On Friday, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, fired every regional military recruitment head in the country, citing endemic corruption in the apparatus... across Ukraine, there are reports of corrupt officials willing to take bribes from people eager to buy their way out of the draft... While the corruption scandal has made headlines, it hints at an even more troubling story for Ukraine as the country approaches the 18-month mark since Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion. In the first weeks after the invasion, hundreds of thousands of ordinary Ukrainians volunteered to serve at the front in an explosion of patriotism that helped keep the country independent and fight off the initial attack. More than a year later, however, many of those initial recruits are now dead, wounded or simply exhausted, and the army needs new recruits to fill the ranks. By now, most of those who want to fight have already signed up, leaving the military to recruit among a much more reluctant pool of men. Fathers of more than three children, people with disabilities and those working in strategically important jobs are exempt from the draft, but everyone else is expected to join up if called. Crews of mobilisation officers roam the streets and sometimes go door to door to hand out notices. Viral videos show officers bundling men into vans to deposit them at enlistment offices...

The head of the Russian paramilitary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has been meeting with representatives from Mali, the Central African Republic and Niger. The United States, meanwhile, is attempting to block the Wagner Group from profiting from African mines...

Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has posted his first video address since leading a short-lived rebellion in Russia, appearing in a clip – possibly shot in Africa – on Telegram channels affiliated with the Wagner group on Monday... He says the Wagner group is conducting reconnaissance and search activities, and “making Russia even greater on all continents, and Africa even more free”. He then says Wagner is recruiting people and the group “will fulfil the tasks that were set”...

Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin was on the passenger list of a jet which crashed killing all on board, Russia's civil aviation authority has said. Earlier, Wagner-linked Telegram channel Grey Zone reported that the private plane, which belonged to Prigozhin, was shot down by air defences. It was flying from Moscow to St Petersburg, with seven passengers and three crew... several Russia watchers have described him as a "dead man walking" since the mutiny...

His Wagner group of mercenaries was "making Russia even greater on every continent - and Africa even more free". "Justice and happiness for the African nations," he declared... But for many African governments, Prigozhin's announced death is a relief... his operatives did not spread freedom, and foreign mercenaries are an embarrassment for many states - Prigozhin was a reminder of a painful past. At the height of the Cold War, and especially shortly after independence on the continent, mercenaries were regularly used to influence the civil wars and violence that followed. Col Callan in Angola; Bob Denard in Congo's Katanga and later the Comoros; "Mad" Mike Hoare in Katanga and later the Seychelles; American Robert Mackenzie in Sierra Leone and British Simon Mann's failed "organised regime change" mission in Equatorial Guinea in 2004: all these are uncomfortable history... Russian African analysts in Moscow... reminded me that for them he was less of the above, but more akin to the British imperialist Cecil Rhodes, who was out to make a fortune, and that I should not be judgmental, given the UK's history. Prigozhin's Wagner footprint in Africa was built on blood and treasure - contracts giving access to valuable resources were made in payment for military support... Pan-African dismay about mercenaries began as soon as they became active in the decolonisation conflicts of the 1960s. In 1977, the African Convention on Mercenarism was signed in Libreville and took effect in April 1985. In February 2022, the African Union's commissioner for political affairs, peace and security, Bankole Adeoye, called for the "complete exclusion of mercenaries from the African continent". These conventions may be ineffective, but an increasing number of African governments do not want a repeat of the use of foreign mercenaries on African soil to pursue geopolitical rivalries of external powers that occurred during the Cold War... African-led and designed security initiatives are an explicit rejection of mercenaries. But for those military governments in the region, in Mali, Burkina Faso and now Niger, the Russian operatives may be an attractive alternative... This is the moment for African leaders to truly implement African solutions to African problems, by implementing its conventions and building up institutions and credible, accountable security forces.

Young Russian Catholics attending a faith-sharing event in St. Petersburg had a special experience Friday: an interactive video exchange with Pope Francis, who urged them to be peacemakers and “bridge builders” with the courage to “replace fears with dreams”... Without referring directly to Russia’s war in Ukraine, the Holy Father called on the youth to pursue peace “in the midst of so many conflicts” happening around the world. “Dear young people, I do not want to preach a long sermon. I invite you to be bridge builders. Builders of bridges between generations, recognizing the dreams of those who have gone before you on the journey”... "I wish you, young Russians, the vocation to be artisans of peace in the midst of so many conflicts, in the midst of so many polarizations on all sides, which plague our world,” he continued. “I invite you to be sowers, to sow seeds of reconciliation,” he said, “little seeds that in this winter of war will not sprout for the moment in the frozen ground, but which in a future spring will blossom”...

Social media channels associated with the Russian state have launched a major effort to exploit last month’s military coup in Niger, seeking to reinforce Moscow’s influence in the country and possibly open opportunities for intervention... Content about Niger across 45 Russian Telegram channels affiliated with the Russian state or Wagner increased by 6,645% in the month after the coup, suggesting a keen interest in Moscow in exploiting the upheaval... The research will reinforce fears that Russia will seek to win influence, lucrative contracts and access to key resources in Niger after the overthrow of Bazoum...

Ukraine is known as one of Europe's largest grain producers. But it also has valuable natural resources such as iron ore and coal that Russia is eager to exploit...

The death of the Wagner Group’s charismatic leader, a former close ally of Putin, raises questions about these African operations. Based on credible news reports, these include activities in: Equatorial Guinea, Libya, Central African Republic (CAR), Chad, Mali, Burkina Faso, Sudan, Mozambique and Madagascar. The group reportedly has more than 5,000 operatives across its Africa operations. A common denominator among these countries is the presence of insurgencies or civil wars, abundant natural resources, corrupt leadership, and unconstitutional governance, among other factors. Many of these states, such as Libya, Sudan, and Mozambique, have many of the characteristics of “failing” or “failed states”... Described by South Africa-based think tank In On Africa as “more than mere mercenaries”, the Wagner Group has also discreetly but effectively put stress on Afro-European relations while bolstering autocratic governments...

Russia's pro-war influencers are generating big advertising revenues from their social media coverage of the conflict, the BBC has found. Alongside a daily ration of gruesome videos of drone strikes and false claims about Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, they share ads for anything from cryptocurrency to fashion. Known in Russia as "Z-Bloggers" because of their support for a war often symbolised by the letter Z, they are often embedded with the Russian army and post footage from the front line where they call on young Russians to enlist. Since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, pro-war influencers have gained millions of followers on Telegram, the social media platform many Russians turned to after President Vladimir Putin banned Instagram, Facebook and Twitter. That explosion in users has led to a surge in Telegram's advertising market. War influencers have taken advantage of this. They sell ad spaces for companies looking to reach their young audiences...

Russia's diplomats were once a key part of President Putin's foreign policy strategy. But that has all changed. In the years leading up to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, diplomats lost their authority, their role reduced to echoing the Kremlin's aggressive rhetoric...

Konstantin Dobrovolski, who has spent decades finding and reburying those killed in WW2, says Ukraine invasion was ‘madness’... When Russia invaded Ukraine, Putin tapped into the memory, language and imagery of the past war to justify the attack, telling his nation that men were “fighting for the same thing as their fathers and grandfathers” and framing Ukraine as a successor to Nazi Germany. “Absolute nonsense,” said Dobrovolski when asked about the parallel between the two conflicts. “These two wars are completely different. Our fathers and grandfathers were heroically defending our country, not invading another one. Our borders were drawn in 1991. What the hell are we doing in Ukraine? It’s madness and it needs to stop”... “I look around and see all these bodies and then see these pseudo-patriots screaming that no one is left behind. They should spend a day with me here in the field and look at these forgotten soldiers,” Dobrovolski said. “How can they talk about patriotism when we haven’t even buried our defenders properly?”... In a country where even the slightest dissent is criminalised, Dobrovolski is a rare voice that pushes against the state narrative tying the two wars together...

Long-held resentments of the west are surfacing as world relations rebalance in favour of economic powerhouses like India and China...

Ukraine's special services 'likely' behind strikes on Wagner-backed forces in Sudan, a Ukrainian military source says...

Military intelligence spokesperson Andrii Yusov said in an interview with Radio NV on Sept. 20 that he cannot confirm nor deny Ukraine's role in a strike against Wagner-backed militia in Sudan. However, he said that the incident signals decreasing Russian influence in Africa and is a consequence of Moscow's criminal activities. "And Ukraine will punish, as we have already said, enemies and criminals all over the world," the official said. CNN reported on Sept. 19 that according to an unnamed Ukrainian military source, a "non-Sudanese military" was responsible for a military operation against Wagner-affiliated forces in Sudan, involving drone strikes and a ground operation. The source reportedly believed that Ukrainian special services were likely responsible for the attack. However, some officials consulted doubted the source's claim... {including} A top-ranking Sudanese military official {and} multiple U.S. officials...

An invitation to parliament for a Ukrainian man who fought for a Nazi unit in World War Two is "deeply embarrassing" to Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says. Yaroslav Hunka, 98, got a standing ovation after House of Commons Speaker Anthony Rota called him a "hero" during a Friday visit by Ukraine's president. Mr Rota has said he did not know of Mr Hunka's Nazi ties and made a mistake in inviting him to attend the event. He faces calls to resign...

South Sudan and Russia agreed to expand energy cooperation, including in the oil sector, during a meeting of South Sudanese President Salva Kiir with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Moscow. South Sudan, an oil producer in Africa, has several foreign firms, including Russian ones, operating in its oil industry... Putin and Kiir also discussed regional security in light of the war in neighboring Sudan, and the South Sudanese president said, per the Kremlin release, “we need our own friends. You are one of them. We do not see any alternative besides you”...

The Many Lessons of the Ukraine War
Remarks to the East Bay Citizens for Peace

Ambassador Chas W. Freeman, Jr. (USFS, Ret.)
Visiting Scholar, Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, Brown University
The Barrington Library, Barrington, Rhode Island, 26 September 2023

I want to speak to you tonight about Ukraine – what has happened to it and why, how it is likely to emerge from the ordeal to which great power rivalry has subjected it; and what we can learn from this. I do so with some trepidation and a warning to this audience. My talk, like the conflict in Ukraine, is a long and complicated one. It contradicts propaganda that has been very convincing. My talk will offend anyone committed to the official narrative. The way the American media have dealt with the Ukraine war brings to mind a comment by Mark Twain: “The researches of many commentators have already thrown much darkness on this subject, and it is probable that, if they continue, we shall soon know nothing at all about it.”

It is said that, in war, truth is the first casualty. War is typically accompanied by a fog of official lies. No such fog has ever been as thick as in the Ukraine war. While many hundreds of thousands of people have fought and died in Ukraine, the propaganda machines in Brussels, Kyiv, London, Moscow, and Washington have worked overtime to ensure that we take passionate sides, believe what we want to believe, and condemn anyone who questions the narrative we have internalized. No one not on the front lines has any real idea of what has been happening in this war. What we know is only what our governments and other supporters of the war want us to know. And they have developed the bad habit of inhaling their own propaganda, which guarantees delusional policies.

Every government that is a party to the Ukraine War – Kyiv, Moscow, Washington, and other NATO capitals – has been guilty of various degrees of self-deception and blundering misfeasance. The consequences for all have been dire. For Ukraine, they have been catastrophic. A radical rethinking of policy by all concerned is long overdue....

To summarize:

In short, U.S. policy has resulted in great suffering in Ukraine and escalating defense budgets here and in Europe but has failed to weaken or isolate Russia. More of the same will not accomplish either of these oft-stated American objectives. Russia has been educated in how to combat American weapons systems and has developed effective counters to them. It has been militarily strengthened, not weakened. It has been reoriented and freed from Western influence, not isolated.

If the purpose of war is to establish a better peace, this war is not doing that. Ukraine is being eviscerated on the altar of Russophobia. At this point, no one can confidently predict how much of Ukraine or how many Ukrainians will be left when the fighting stops or when and how to stop it. Kyiv just failed to meet more than a fraction of its recruitment goals. Combating Russia to the last Ukrainian was always an odious strategy. But when NATO is about to run out of Ukrainians, it is not just cynical; it is no longer a viable option.

Lessons to be Learned from the Ukraine War

What can we learn from this debacle? It has provided many unwelcome reminders of the basic principles of statecraft.

Wars do not decide who is right. They determine who is left.
The best way to avoid war is to reduce or eliminate the apprehensions and grievances that cause it.
When you refuse to hear, let alone address an aggrieved party’s case for adjustments in your policies toward it, you risk a violent reaction from it.
No one should enter a war without realistic objectives, a strategy to achieve them, and a plan for war termination.
Self-righteousness and bravery are no substitutes for military mass, firepower, and stamina.
In the end, wars are won and lost on the battlefield, not with propaganda inspired by and directed at reinforcing wishful thinking.
What has been lost on the battlefield can seldom, if ever, be recovered at the negotiating table.
When wars cannot be won, it is usually better to seek terms by which to end them than to reinforce strategic failure.
It is time to prioritize saving as much as possible of Ukraine. This war has become existential for it. Ukraine needs diplomatic backing to craft a peace with Russia if its military sacrifices are not to have been in vain. It is being destroyed. It must be rebuilt. The key to preserving Ukraine is to empower and back Kyiv to end the war on the best terms it can obtain, to facilitate the return of its refugees, and to use the EU accession process to advance liberal reforms and institute clean government in a neutral Ukraine.

Unfortunately, as things stand, both Moscow and Washington seem determined to persist in Ukraine’s ongoing destruction. But whatever the outcome of the war, Kyiv and Moscow will eventually have to find a basis for coexistence. Washington needs to support Kyiv in challenging Russia to recognize both the wisdom and the necessity of respect for Ukrainian neutrality and territorial integrity.

Finally, this war should provoke some sober rethinking here, in Moscow, and by NATO of the consequences of diplomacy-free, militarized foreign policy. Had the United States agreed to talk with Moscow, even if it had continued to reject much of what Moscow demanded, Russia would not have invaded Ukraine as it did. Had the West not intervened to prevent Ukraine from ratifying the treaty others helped it agree with Russia at the outset of the war, Ukraine would now be intact and at peace.

This war did not need to take place. Every party to it has lost far more than it has gained. There’s a lot to be learned from what has happened in and to Ukraine. We should study and learn these lessons and take them to heart.