Russia: international moves, W responses, Putin...Ukraine...China...internal devts. 14

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Russia: international moves, W responses, Putin...Ukraine...China...internal devts. 14

jun 24, 2:35 pm

Samuel Ramani (Oxford) @SamRamani2 | 10:25 AM · Jun 24, 2023:

Turkey is now offering to mediate in the Putin-Prigozhin conflict. Turkish diplomacy knows no bounds.

Erdogan's strong solidarity with Putin which was more apparent than Russian treaty allies like Kazakhstan likely is repayment for Putin's backing of him during the 2016 coup attempt

Prigozhin's anti-Turkish information campaign in Libya likely played a part too

jun 24, 2:39 pm

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 10:27 AM · Jun 24, 2023:

Russian Telegram channels are spreading video of the alleged Wagner PMC disarming the first Akhmat fighters.*

0:02 ( )

* Chechens ( )

jun 24, 2:41 pm

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 10:28 AM · Jun 24, 2023:

BREAKING: Lipetsk Governor Igor Artamonov says that the Wagner Group has entered Lipetsk region
Lipetsk is 450km away from Moscow
Artamonov claims that the situation is under control but the spillover from Voronezh is now confirmed

jun 24, 2:43 pm

It seems that the coup is over, Prigozhin made a deal. All Wagner fighters are leaving the occupied towns and returning to barracks. I will be surprised if he last 6 months.

Redigerat: jun 24, 2:45 pm

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 10:31 AM · Jun 24, 2023:

Russian telegram channels share Wagner's breakthrough of a roadblock on the M-4 highway near the Ikorets river south of Voronezh.
0:21 ( )

Dubbed in English:

Redigerat: jun 24, 3:33 pm

Barry R McCaffrey @mccaffreyr3 | 1:20 AM · Jun 24, 2023:
Prigozhin spent a decade behind bars. Armed robbery. Burglary. Fraud. Choked out a woman and stole her earrings and boots. Executed a deserter with a sledgehammer. He is a corrupt and dangerous actor. Putin criminal enterprise perhaps coming apart.

Quote Tweet
11th Hour @11thHour · 13h
“Prigozhin is not a step up from Putin – he’s just another gangster.”

Gen. @mccaffreyr3 weighs in on the long-brewing conflict between Russia’s military leadership and the head of the Wagner Group.
1:17 ( )

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 10:36 AM · Jun 24, 2023:
Either Prigozhin will be destroyed within 24 hours by a missile strike ordered by Putin, or he will take over the Kremlin and declare himself as Russian military dictator. What comes next will be civil war and Russia's disintegration.

My concern is what will happen to the thousands of nuclear warheads, on missiles and planes, if Prigozhin controls them.


Hope Xi is talkin' to Putin...

Thomas Wood 🇺🇸 🌊 🇺🇦 @twoodiac | 12:11 PM · Jun 24, 2023:
From the Russian Telegram channel VChK-OGPU just now: “The plane of the presidential special flight squad "Russia" TU-214PU took off from Vnukovo in the direction of St. Petersburg. "PU" in the name of the aircraft means that it has a control center - the same "red button".”

KyivPost @KyivPost | 8:58 AM · Jun 24, 2023:

❗️ #Putin's plane took off from #Moscow and disappeared from the radar, Russian media reported.

Putin's special Il96-300PU (Point of Control) plane took off from Moscow toward St. Petersburg at 14:16 Moscow time, FlightRadar data shows. The flight's destination was not specified, and it disappeared from the tracking system near #Tver. One of Putin's residences is in the Tver region.

Flight map ( )

OSINTdefender @sentdefender | 1:58 PM · Jun 24, 2023:

According to Russian State Media, Major Changes to the Leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defense including changes to the current Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu and Army Chief of General Staff, Valery Gerasimov have reportedly been Agreed upon in order to Stop the March of the Wagner PMC Group towards the Capital of Moscow; these Negotiations have also reportedly included the assured “Security of the Wagner Group.”
Photo ( )

These Negotiations are also reported to have included a “Stipulation” that the Majority of Wagner PMC Forces will be Redeployed out of Russia and Ukraine to Africa.

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:20 PM · Jun 24, 2023
Former supporter of Prigozhin about alleged agreement between Prigozhin and Russian authorities:

"Now it's finally allowed to say the three things he's been promised. 1. Shoigu's resignation. 2. Amnesty for "musicians" Wagner mercenaries. 3. The possibility to return to Africa. I'm sure that in reality he signed his own death sentence. And Wagner PMC as well, of course."

In general, many "Wagner war correspondents" are extremely disappointed with the situation.

Some publicly resign. And curse Prigozhin.
Text ( )

Russian "military correspondent" writes on his Telegram channel:
"Preparation for what happened took place beforehand. Everyone was instructed what to do and how. In the end, a politician with doubtful perspectives lasted one day. There was a task to provoke an evacuation of top officials and authorities from Moscow. Then start seizing ministry buildings. Plans were huge. But in reality the politician with doubtful perspectives steamed off in one day. It's shameful"
Text ( )

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:29 PM · Jun 24, 2023:
Russian media share a video of Wagner mercenaries leaving the premises of the headquarters of the South Military District in Rostov.
0:08 ( )

Redigerat: jun 25, 5:32 am


Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya @Tsihanouskaya | 6:20 AM · Jun 24, 2023:
National leader of Belarus

Belarus stands at a historic crossroads. On one road, there is Europe, there is independence, prosperity & democracy. On the other road is the rule of infighting bandits, there is chaos, thievery & isolation. Our goals are clear; victory for #Ukraine & freedom for #Belarus.
Photo ( )

Anne Applebaum (The Atlantic) @anneapplebaum | 10:16 AM · Jun 24, 2023
The Belarusian Kalinouski regiment* are saying they are preparing to "liberate" the country

Quote Tweet
Kastus Kalinouski Regiment @belwarriors · 5h
Address of the Kalinouski Regiment to Belarusians
1:05 Engl subtitles ( )

*ETA: Per Anton Gerashchenko: The Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment was formed from Belarusians fighting on the side of Ukraine...

KyivPost @KyivPost | 6:47 AM · Jun 24, 2023
⚡️The founder of the 1st separate airborne assault company of #Belarus as part of the Armed Forces of #Ukraine, Valery Sakhashchyk, addressed the Belarusian military in connection with the events in #Russia.

"Either we take this historic chance, or we will lose everything," he said.
Photo ( )

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 11:17 AM · Jun 24, 2023:

"Dagestan - without Russia" graffiti started appearing in Dagestan (Russian region in North Caucasus).
Russian republics are seizing their chance for independence?
0:23 ( )

jun 24, 3:41 pm

Who's who in the Prigozhin-Kremlin conflict?
Friedel Taube | 24 June 2023

Yevgeny Prigozhin
Sergei Shoigu
Valery Gerasimov
Sergei Surovikin

jun 25, 4:50 am

Bernard-Henri Lévy BHL | 12:18 AM · Jun 25, 2023:

No need far fetched reasons for #Prigozhyn pantsnade (secret services plot, #Putin’s machiavelism, bla-bla-bla).
My pals, here, in #Ukraine, get it all:
He is just a mercenary; a mercenary just wants to be paid; his contract expired on July 1;
how much did #Russia promise?
Photo ( )

Redigerat: jun 25, 9:04 am

Valerie Hopkins (NYT) @VALERIEinNYT | 3:06 AM · Jun 25, 2023:

Hours after Putin called Prigozhin a traitor and Prigozhin announced he was turning his “March for justice” around — people in Rostov cheered Wagner and called Russian police “traitors.”

From Dmitri
0:33 ( )

max seddon (Financial Times) @maxseddon | 4:31 PM · Jun 24, 2023:

Prigozhin driving away from his coup in an SUV, chased by a smattering of adoring fans, like he just won the NBA Eastern Conference finals or something
0:29 ( )

Wagner's fighters are already leaving Rostov to a rapturous reception, per a Prigozhin-affiliated Telegram channel.
0:10 ( )

Wait, now state media is posting the same footage too? What the hell?
0:26 ( )


Michael McFaul McFaul | 8:51 AM · Jun 25, 2023:
{Former US Ambassador to Russia}

So which part of Prigozhins messaging are these people cheering— the part about the lies told to them about the purposes of the war or the part about needing to kill Ukrainians more effectively? I hope the former; I fear the latter.

jun 25, 4:58 am

DW News @dwnews | 1:41 PM · Jun 24, 2023:

BREAKING: Wagner chief Prigozhin says he ordered troops to stop advance on Moscow and return to base to avoid bloodshed.

Bill Browder {Magnitsky Act} @Billbrowder | 2:15 PM · Jun 24, 2023:

This is the first time in Prighozin’s adult life that he’s ever given a s..t about avoiding bloodshed. Remember the sledgehammer incident? I don’t buy it.

Redigerat: jun 25, 5:28 am

max seddon {Financial Times} @maxseddon | 3:46 PM · Jun 24, 2023

Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov:
– charges dropped against Prigozhin, who will leave Russia for Belarus
– Wagner fighters who didn't take part in the uprising will sign contracts with the MOD
– Wagner fighters who did take part not charged
– No word on potential MOD leadership changes

Despite declaring Prigozhin a "traitor" and vowing to "liquidate" Wagner on Saturday morning, Peskov said Putin had asked Lukashenko to mediate in the hope of avoiding any further bloodshed because the Belarusian leader has known Prigozhin for 20 years.

Peskov described the uprising – in which Wagner shot down helicopters, captured a major command post, and marched most of the way to Moscow – as "fairly difficult" and "full of tragic events," but said "there were higher goals of escaping bloodshed and internal confrontation."

Putin will not make any further comment on the issue. The invasion of Ukraine will continue as normal.

No word from Peskov on whether Prigozhin managed to secure Shoigu's resignation – he said only Putin has that authority so Prigozhin and Lukashenko couldn't discuss it.

...One consequence of this deal: Wagner killed between 13 and 20 Russian soldiers today, according to pro-war Telegram channels. And they are going to get away with it completely scot free

Valerie Hopkins {NYT} @VALERIEinNYT | 3:54 PM · Jun 24, 2023:
...soldiers who didn't participate in the mutiny can sign contracts with the MOD.
The rest of the fighters won't be prosecuted given "service at the front."


My sources tell me Putin is giving Prigozhin a balcony apartment in a high-rise building as a peace offering
- Rizzo @yayariz | 1:37 AM · Jun 25, 2023

margd: seems like a whole lot of people in Russia and Belarus showed displeasure with authorities, might be subject to retribution in time if Putin and the boys remain in power?

Kevin Rothrock (Medusa English) @KevinRothrock | 12:09 PM · Jun 24, 2023:

Prominent public figures who haven't said peep during Prigozhin's insurrection: Defense Minister Shoigu and General Gerasimov (Prigozhin wants their heads), PM Mishushtin, Simonyan, Kiriyenko, FSB Director Bortnikov (but his agency has spoken), Patrushev, wow this list is long...

Whole list here {Telegram, in Russian?}:

jun 25, 7:00 am

As Russia uprising subsides, U.S., allies brace for what comes next
Yevgeniy Prigozhin’s extraordinary showdown with Vladimir Putin has dealt a serious blow to the stability of the Russian regime, observers say
Karen DeYoung, Missy Ryan and Michael Birnbaum | June 24, 2023

...Yet, just as little was clear during a day of confusion and upheaval, “we don’t know if it’s over,” said Alexander Vershbow, a former U.S. ambassador to Moscow and former deputy secretary general of NATO. “We can speculate all we want, but the fact is we have little idea of what happens next.”

While events were unfolding, the administration trod lightly in making public statements or taking any action, such as putting forces in Europe on alert, to avoid what analysts and former officials said might suggest the United States was trying to exploit the situation and play into long-standing Kremlin narratives about U.S.-led attempts to weaken Russian security.

...The administration also told the Russian government that the United States considers this a “Russian affair in which the U.S. would not involve itself”...

... even though the immediate threat from Prigozhin may have eased, the extraordinary events had dealt a serious blow to the stability of the Russian regime.

...A weakened Putin could face challenges from the Russian elite, or inspire leaders in Russian regions such as Chechnya and Tatarstan, many of which have long-standing grievances with the central government, to push for additional autonomy or separation from Russia.

"...such a credible signal of the extent of discontent and dissatisfaction with the war in Ukraine and with the Putin regime in particular”...

"...are there significant, powerful people in the shadows who believe that this mess is the final straw, and Putin has screwed up so royally that they need to make him see the error of his ways and push him from power. I have a hard time believing that the scared people around him are likely to move against him.”

"...the weekend spectacle might have broken the seal on more widespread protests against the war..."

“Who controls the nuclear football?”

in previous eras we had a lot more data

There may be some satisfaction in the West toward Putin’s predicament, but (Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics, who will become Latvia’s president next month) said it was difficult to take any pleasure from the situation...challenging times ahead regardless of the turn of events...we don’t want a Russia that is too weak. We don’t want to have a failed state — they’re still a nuclear power.”

Redigerat: jun 25, 9:57 am

Don't relax yet, Africa... Prigozhin's fake passport, Wagner prepaid plane tickets. Aiyiyi!

Kevin Rothrock (Meduza English) @KevinRothrock | 8:33 AM · Jun 25, 2023
Great thread on some of the people whose identities Prigozhin stole for his fake IDs (seized yesterday in some of the raids on his offices).

Quote Tweet
Mark Krutov @kromark
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

...The name and the DOB on ne of {Prigozhin's} 'fake' passport matches the name and the DOB in the clinic's clients list: Geiler Dmitry Isaakovich, Aug. 1, 1965.

...What's interesting is that in this case Prigozhin obviously tried to find a man who will at least in some aspects resemble him vaguely. { Geiler Dmitry Isaakovich, Aug. 1, 1965 }
Image ( )

Redigerat: jun 25, 11:35 am

Michael McFaul McFaul | 7:32 AM · Jun 25, 2023:
Former US Ambassador to Russia

Since the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, analysts & officials have claimed that Putin will never back down; that he needs a facing-saving win (i.e. Ukrainian territory) to end his war. Events yesterday completely undermined that assumption. 1/

Putin talked tough in his national address. He sounded like someone preparing for a big fight. But when faced with the difficult decision of trying to stop Wagner mercenaries with major force, he backed down. 2/

He didn't escalate. He didn't need a face-saving off-ramp to declare victory. When facing the possibility of really losing to Wagner mercenaries coming into Moscow, he just capitulated. 3/

Instead of doubling down with more force to crush the mutiny, Putin accepted humiliation instead. He was the rat trapped in the corner that so many Putinologists have told us to fear. But he didn't lash out & go crazy. He negotiated & with a traitor. 4/

The lesson for the war in Ukraine is clear. Putin is more likely to negotiate and end his war if he is losing on the battlefield. Those who have argued that Ukraine must not attack Crimea for fear of triggering escalation must now reevaluate that hypothesis. 5/

The sooner Putin fears he is losing the war, the faster he will negotiate. 6/END

Redigerat: jun 26, 2:48 am

AKA: "I AM NOT weak"?

Plan to blow up Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant approved, situation has never been so severe before ― Chief of Defence Intelligence
Ukrainska Pravda | Sun, June 25, 2023

jun 26, 2:47 am

Tatiana Stanovaya @Stanovaya | 11:35 AM · Jun 25, 2023:
Founder/CEO at R.Politik, Senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Membre du Conseil Scientifique de l’Observatoire (CCI France Russie)

Below is a brief description of Prigozhin's mutiny and the factors that contributed to its outcome. We, as observers, initially missed important details due to the scarcity of information and lack of time for in-depth analysis. Here's the perspective that currently seems most plausible:

1️⃣ Prigozhin's rebellion wasn't a bid for power or an attempt to overtake the Kremlin. It arose from a sense of desperation; Prigozhin was forced out of Ukraine and found himself unable to sustain Wagner the way he did before, while the state machinery was turning against him. To top it off, Putin was ignoring him and publicly supporting his most dangerous adversaries.

2️⃣ Prigozhin's objective was to draw Putin's attention and to impose a discussion about conditions to preserve his activities - a defined role, security, and funding. These weren't demands for a governmental overthrow; they were a desperate bid to save the enterprise, hoping that Prigozhin's merits in taking Bakhmut (that's why he needed it!) would be taken into account and the concerns would catch Putin's serious attention. Now it appears that these merits helped Prigozhin to get out of this crisis alive, but without a political future in Russia (at least while Putin is in power).

3️⃣ Prigozhin was caught off-guard by Putin's reaction and found himself unprepared to assume the role of a revolutionary. He also wasn't prepared for the fact that Wagner was about to reach Moscow where his only option remained - to "take the Kremlin" - an action that would inevitably result in him and his fighters being eradicated.

4️⃣ Those in the elites who were able reached out to Prigozhin with offers to surrender. This likely added to his sense of impending doom. However, I don't believe any high-level negotiations took place. Lukashenko presented Prigozhin with a Putin-endorsed offer to retreat on the condition that Prigozhin would leave Russia and Wagner would be dissolved.

5️⃣ I don't think Prigozhin was in a position to make demands (such as the resignation of Shoigu or Gerasimov - something many observers expect today. If that happens, it will be due to another reason.) After Putin's address in the morning of June 24th, Prigozhin's primary concern was to find an off-ramp. The situation would have led to inevitable death in merely a few hours. It is possible that Putin has promised him safety on the condition that Prigozhin remains quietly in Belarus.

I stand by my previous assertion that Putin and the state have been dealt a severe blow (which will have significant repercussions for the regime). However, I want to emphasize that image has always been a secondary concern for Putin. Setting optics aside, Putin objectively resolved the Wagner and Prigozhin problem by dissolving the former and expelling the latter. The situation would have been far worse if it had culminated in a bloody mess in the outskirts of Moscow.

And no, Putin doesn't need Wagner or Prigozhin. He can manage with his own forces. He's now certainly convinced of that.
I will disclose many more details in my bulletin to be issued tomorrow evening.

jun 26, 2:57 am

Russian agents’ threat to family made Prigozhin call off Moscow advance
Details offer clue as to why Wagner Group abandoned coup attempt that revealed ‘real cracks’ in Putin’s authority
Ben Riley-Smith, Political Editor ; Colin Freeman in Kramatorsk and James Kilner | 26 June 2023

Russian intelligence services threatened to harm the families of Wagner leaders before Yevgeny Prigozhin called off his advance on Moscow, according to UK security sources.

It has also been assessed that the mercenary force had only 8,000 fighters rather than the 25,000 claimed and faced likely defeat in any attempt to take the Russian capital.

Vladimir Putin will now try to assimilate Wagner Group soldiers into the Russian military and take out its former leaders, according to insights shared with The Telegraph...

jun 28, 7:21 am

Mart Kuldkepp @KuldkeppMart | 5:06 AM · Jun 28, 2023
Associate Professor of Scandinavian History and Politics @UCL in 🇬🇧 | Regular contributing writer @postimees | Moral clarity enjoyer.

A thread about Russia's stability 🧶

Yevgeny Prigozhin's Bonapartist adventure last week once again highlighted that anything can happen in war-weakened Russia. We cannot rule out an actual coup d'état or outbreak of civil war, (1/17)

and recent events have undoubtedly increased the likelihood of something like this happening. In the end, even the parties involved must have realised the dangers of destabilisation: Putin, (2/17)

who had initially vowed harsh retribution against the mutineers moving towards the capital, dropped the criminal case almost as soon as it was raised. Prigozhin and his Wagner cutthroats, on the other hand, (3/17)

moved meekly into their Belarusian exile and abandoned their earlier angry demands for the removal of Shoigu, the Minister of Defence and Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff. As of now, both sides are pretending that in fact nothing much has happened, (4/17)

and the foundations of the Russian colossus are still stable and strong. Perhaps the families of the Russian pilots who lost their lives during the uprising are not entirely happy with this solution, but they, too, will certainly be kept quiet. (5/17)

All of this is perfectly understandable, because it is essential for Russia to maintain the myth of its stability. This is needed both domestically – to reassure the Russian people – and also externally to reassure the West. (6/17)

For both Russians and Westerners fear the prospect of any 'Time of Troubles' in Russia like wildfire. This is why the West allegedly asked the Ukrainian armed forces to refrain from attacking Russian territory during the putsch attempt, (7/17)

and the same argument is also being used to keep military aid to Ukraine on the level of a trickle that allows it to survive, but not to win the war quickly. Because who knows what Putin might do if he’s 'backed into a corner'!

But what the West does not see, (8/17)

or does not want to see, is that the Time of Troubles in Russia may well have already begun, that it is ultimately not in the West’s power to prevent power struggles between its various political and criminal factions from going ahead, (9/17)

and that trying to use the victims of Russian aggression as levers to somehow save Russia from itself is a strategy that is both immoral and ineffective.

For Russia's neighbours, this is all very reminiscent of the situation during the end of the Cold War, (10/17)

when the West remained firm in its support for Gorbachev and the territorial integrity of the Soviet Union, even when Gorbachev was already a political corpse, and the territorial integrity of the USSR was obviously no longer sustainable. (11/17)

There is no more notorious example of this than George Bush Sr's 'Chicken Kiev' speech in Kyiv on 1 August 1991, in which Bush exhorted the Ukrainians to support the new union treaty and cautioned them against 'suicidal nationalism'.

145 days later, (12/17)

the Soviet Union was no more.

This is not just about nuclear weapons either. What happened between 1989 and 1991 was a reprise of the events of 1917-1920, (13/17)

when various 'suicidal nationalists' in borderlands of the former Russian Empire were in very similar ways being lectured by the Entente allies for allegedly trying to dismantle Russia – even when the Bolshevik coup in Petrograd and the Brest-Litovsk peace treaty had (14/17)

made this accusation absurd. Even the military aid at the time, including to the Baltic states during their Wars of Independence, was only limited emergency aid to keep Bolshevism from spreading further to the West until Russia could be helped back on its feet again. (15/17)

And yet, a territorially intact, politically stable and (in the long run, perhaps) democratic Russia remained as much of an unattainable Western pipe dream as it is today. (16/17)

END. (17/17)

jun 28, 7:27 am

Plausible, but wonder if true? A bit of disinformation planted in NYT would be excellent way of assuring "respected" Surovikin doesn't return to Ukraine war?

Russian General Knew About Mercenary Chief’s Rebellion Plans, U.S. Officials Say
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner, may have believed he had support in Russia’s military.
Julian E. Barnes, Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt | June 27, 2023

...(US) officials said they are trying to learn if Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the former top Russian commander in Ukraine, helped plan Mr. Prigozhin’s actions last weekend, which posed the most dramatic threat to President Vladimir V. Putin in his 23 years in power.

General Surovikin is a respected military leader who helped shore up defenses across the battle lines after Ukraine’s counteroffensive last year, analysts say. He was replaced as the top commander in January but retained influence in running war operations and remains popular among the troops...

Redigerat: jun 30, 3:41 pm


Christo Grozev@christogrozev | 12:18 PM · Jun 30, 2023:
Investigative journalist, radio investor and hobby coder.

And Prigozhin has now disbanded his fake news holding, leaving hundreds of fake news manufacturers, and likely thousands of trolls unemployed and unemployable. Expect waves of leaks from young people who suddenly found their conscience on the way out.

Parade O’ Crap™ @HeyThereItsEric: Genuinely curious: is anyone seeing a difference in online comments yet? I’m sure it’s all anecdotal for now, but it’d be awesome to see what types of comments/commenters disappear.

Redigerat: jul 1, 9:12 am

What happens if Russia blocks the Ukraine grain deal?
Silja Thoms | 1 July 2023

...How successful was the agreement?
The Black Sea Grain Initiative and EU solidarity corridors to support Ukrainian exports have helped food prices fall and stabilize. More than 30 million tons of grain and other food products have been exported up to May 2023 thanks to the agreement.

Poorer countries in particular have benefited: Around 64% of wheat went to developing countries, while corn was exported almost equally to developed and developing countries. In March though, several media outlets reported that less and less grain was being shipped from Ukraine.

Overall food exports made possible by the agreement fell by about three-quarters in May compared with October last year, as more shipping companies shied away from sending ships on the dangerous route. But strict regulations also make it difficult for ships to pass through quickly.

"The UN Secretary-General is disappointed by the slowing pace of inspections and the exclusion of the port of Yuzhny/Pivdennyi* from the Black Sea Initiative," Antonio Guterres' deputy spokesperson, Farhan Haq, said in a statement on Tuesday.

The Russian side has been complaining that its demands are not being met and that Western sanctions hinder the export of its own agricultural products. President Vladimir Putinargued to an African peace delegation this week that the grain agreement did not solve the problems African countries had with high global food prices, because only 3% of Ukraine's grain exports go to the poorest countries...

* Pivdennyi Seaport is a commercial seaport in the Ukrainian city of Yuzhne near Odesa, on the Black Sea coast. It is the largest and most profitable port of Ukraine. According to the American Association of Port Authorities it was ranked the 91st in 2015 in terms of total cargo turnover among the world's ports. (Wikipedia)

Redigerat: jul 9, 1:40 am

BBC News: Cluster bombs: Unease grows over US sending cluster bombs to Ukraine

Several allies of the US have expressed unease at Washington's decision to supply Ukraine with cluster bombs. On Friday, the US confirmed it was sending the controversial weapons to Ukraine, with President Joe Biden calling it a "very difficult decision". In response, the UK, Canada, New Zealand and Spain all said they were opposed to the use of the weapons. Cluster bombs have been banned by more than 100 countries because of the danger they pose to civilians. They typically release lots of smaller bomblets that can kill indiscriminately over a wide area. The munitions have also caused controversy over their failure - or dud - rate. Unexploded bomblets can linger on the ground for years and then indiscriminately detonate...

Redigerat: jul 10, 4:53 am

>23 John5918: Gnats, John. Ultimately, none of this will matter, as we are not addressing the catastrophe of climate warming. Whoever writes our society/species' epitaph will shake its head, if it has one...

Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum | 2:08 AM · Jul 10, 2023:
Staff writer @TheAtlantic . @SNFAgoraJHU . Author of Gulag, Iron Curtain, Red Famine, Twilight of Democracy.

The mayor of occupied Melitopol says that the whole Zaporizhzhia region is being mined and booby-trapped: water and electrical installations as well as the nuclear power plant

⚡️Враг начал минировать критическую инфраструктуру оккупированной части Запорожской области, заявил мэр Мелитополя Иван Федоров. - В Мелитопольском районе заминирован водопровод, питающий питьевой...

jul 10, 5:32 am

Meduza in English @meduza_en | 1:08 AM · Jul 10, 2023:

In a new joint investigation with @mediazona_en and statistician Dmitry Kobak, we use previously unstudied inheritance records to estimate the number of all Russian soldiers killed so far in Ukraine: roughly 47,000 men... That is how many Russian soldiers have died so far in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to a joint study by journalists at Meduza and Mediazona and Tubingen University...

Bring out your dead A joint investigation by Meduza and Mediazona reveals the true number of Russian soldiers killed so far in the invasion of Ukraine
Meduza | July 10, 2023

jul 10, 7:27 am

>24 margd:

Well yes, I agree with you that in the long term big picture, environmental damage is the major issue facing the world. Call me old-fashioned, though, but I still believe that the deliberate killing and maiming of human beings, particularly children, by cluster bombs, something I've experienced first hand, is worth campaigning against and trying to end, or at least limit.

Redigerat: jul 10, 9:56 am

US hasn't used cluster bombs since 2003, I heard. Ukraine asks for them for use on its own territory. US running low on alternatives to offer. Recognition by both countries that difficult cleanup will be necessary--of Russian and now US cluster bombs. A GD shame, I agree, but I save my wrath for the aggressor. And most of all for those of us trashing our planet...

Redigerat: jul 10, 10:31 am


Wagner Leader Prigozhin Met With Putin Days After Aborted Russian Revolt
Russian president met paramilitary chief and his commanders on June 29, Kremlin says
Matthew Luxmoore and Georgi Kantchev | Updated July 10, 2023

"according to the Kremlin"

peterbakernyt 2h

Putin held a lengthy meeting with Prigozhin and his top commanders from the Wagner private military company just five days after the group launched a brief mutiny, Kremlin reveals. ⁦‪

Steve Rosenberg (BBC) @BBCSteveR | 8:06 AM · Jul 10, 2023:
Story so far...There was a mutiny. But it was over in a day. But Russian air force pilots were killed. But no one was arrested. But the Kremlin denounced the mutineers as ‘traitors’. But 5 days later Prigozhin & Wagner commanders were in the Kremlin talking to Putin. All clear?

Redigerat: jul 10, 10:53 am

>27 margd:

Ukrainian cluster bombs will be killing and maiming Ukrainian children on Ukrainian soil for years to come, regardless of whom one judges to be the "aggressor". And anyone using cluster bombs is contributing to trashing our planet, again regardless of whether or not they are the "aggressor".

jul 10, 3:02 pm

Yes, they are going to be a huge problem for the future and that is the issue here. They will be killing people for decades to come but the Ukrainian concern are those being killed right now and any weapon that can kill Russian soldiers right now so they are no longer capable of killing Ukrainians is a plus. Worry about the future later, first we need to survive tomorrow.

Redigerat: jul 11, 4:25 am

Yes, that's the very understandable knee jerk gut reaction. But there has been a trajectory of international law and norms over the last century or so based on the premise that not all weapons and actions are acceptable, that the end doesn't justify the means. This has led to the Geneva Conventions, protections for noncombatants, limits on the use of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons, and more recently, limits on indiscriminate weapons such as anti-personnel mines and cluster munitions. It has also led to war crimes trials for those who have breached some of these norms.

jul 13, 7:49 am

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:25 AM · Jul 13, 2023:
Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine.

Rebellions of generals and "combat" within the Russian defense ministry continue.

Commander of the 58th Russian army major general Ivan Popov was resigned from his position as a result of his report to Gerasimov. In the report, Popov raised the issue of needing to rotate units who have stayed on the combat line for a long time and bore significant losses. Gerasimov blamed Popov of panicking and blaming the high command. After Popov said he was ready to report the problem to Putin personally, Gerasimov took him off his position.

The retired Popov didn't keep quiet and recorded an address that criticizes high command.

New mutinies ahead?

3:59 ( )

jul 13, 11:32 am

Pope Francis’ Call for a Ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine War

How much blood must still flow for us to realize that war is never a solution, only destruction? In the name of God and in the name of the sense of humanity that dwells in every heart, I renew my call for an immediate ceasefire. Let there be a halt to arms, and let us seek the conditions for negotiations.

jul 16, 9:47 am

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 4:01 AM · Jul 16, 2023:
Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine.

Putin and Shoigu continue their purge of unreliable military commanders.

After dismissing generals Popov and Seliverstov, arresting Surovikin (his whereabouts are still unknown), and dismissing general Mizintsev, it is the turn of the commander of Russian Airborne Troops, once a favorite, Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky.

He will reportedly be dismissed in the coming days for refusing to send Airborne Troops to suppress Prigozhin's coup.

Teplinsky, as commander of rapid reaction troops, was tasked to create a barrier to the convoys of Wagner PMC moving towards Moscow, and he did not fulfill the order, not wanting to create a bloodshed.

I predict that the resignations of generals are only the first stage of the purges.
In the first hours after Prigozhin's rebellion, Russia detained at least 13 high-ranking Russian military officers for questioning, and another 15 were dismissed or suspended.

A little later, Putin will probably put them all in jail, just as Stalin did with his generals.
Photo portraits ( )

jul 16, 9:53 am

How useless are they? The war continues…

jul 16, 12:53 pm

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en |12:16 PM · Jul 16, 2023:
Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine.

Anders {Puck} Nielsen, a military analyst at the Royal Danish Defense College, posted a brief analysis of the current state and prospects of the Ukrainian counteroffensive:

◾️The Ukrainian offensive is not going as fast as many had hoped. It may even not be going as fast as the Ukrainians themselves had hoped, but that doesn't mean they won't be able to succeed later this summer.

◾️The Russians are trying to re-gain the initiative in some directions, for example, by attacking in Luhansk region, but all these attacks did not lead to any significant changes in the front line. Ukraine attacks in three directions – from Orikhiv, Velyka Novosilka and Bakhmut. From Orikhiv, the most likely target is Tokmak, an important logistical hub. Although it is still far away, after a collapse of the Russian defense, things can go much faster. The re-taken area near Velyka Novosilka is also quite significant, the goal of this direction is similar to the offensive from Orikhiv – to cut off the logistics routes of the Russian Armed Forces between the Donetsk region and Crimea.

◾️However, the situation is different in Bakhmut – there are no powerful lines of fortifications. An offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the flanks can force the invaders to leave Bakhmut under the threat of encirclement, which will have a huge psychological effect on them, given how they trumpeted the battle for the city in their propaganda. The battle for Bakhmut is also important in that it draws Russian reserves from other directions, as well as from a psychological point of view, showing both domestic and foreign audiences the ability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to win.

◾️It is impossible to exclude the crossing of the Dnieper by Ukrainian fighters. This will create huge problems for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, which will find it extremely difficult to fight off simultaneous attacks in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.

◾️Ukraine received a lot of Western military equipment for maneuver (mobile) warfare, not attrition warfare, and the West was counting on a quick breakthrough of Russian defenses. However, two serious mistakes were made:

1️⃣ Underestimation of the Russians – after all their previous stupidity, many in the West believed that it was only necessary to give the Armed Forces enough Western military equipment and sprinkle NATO doctrine on top, then the victory would be won by itself.

2️⃣ It cannot be said that NATO countries themselves are waging an exclusively maneuver warfare, and not a war of attrition. Before a maneuver war, in any case, it is necessary to weaken the enemy's defense lines – and in the West this is done by air force, gaining air superiority and destroying ground targets. When transferring military equipment to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, this part of the depletion from the air was forgotten.

◾️Because the Russian line of defense is too solid to break it with maneuver without attrition first, the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to use the tactics of limited advance by infantry groups with powerful counter-battery combat. But after the Russian Armed Forces have suffered enough losses, it will be possible to try again to break through their defenses by maneuver, taking into account the fact that most of the Western equipment has not yet been involved.

◾️In Ukraine, ground-based artillery, not fighter aircrafts, is engaged in the attrition of enemy forces. Fortunately, Western leaders have begun to better understand what a titanic task lies before the Armed Forces of Ukraine, operating with a limited number of aircrafts. And that’s where cluster munitions will be very useful – this is the only way to quickly increase the firepower of Ukraine for quick success.

The video with the full analysis can be found here:

Redigerat: jul 17, 7:28 am

Blame/responsibility not yet determined. However, note that
today (17 July 2023), grain deal expires, Kremlin unwilling to extend,
residents have been lining up to leave Crimea for Russia,
this happened late in the morning of a weekend reducing the chance of casualties,
bridge RR was spared, as was one span of roadway,
ferry as well as bridge traffic was stopped,
Russia reportedly blew dam on Dnieper R, mined Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant...
{ETA DW: "Traffic was earlier halted on the route due to an "emergency situation."}
{ETA Regardless of whodunnit, Ukrainian citizens should brace themselves for Russian missiles...}
{ETA If they dunnit, I'd like to think Putin/Kremlin sought to protect Crimean lives, but iven past history I suspect they feared their military would balk at intentionally endangering Russian civilians?}

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | Last edited 1:58 AM · Jul 17, 2023

Russian media report an incident on Kerch bridge.

They report that traffic through the bridge has been stopped.
Ferry service between Crimea and Russian Kuban was also stopped.

Photo ( )

2:20 AM · Jul 17, 2023
Russian media publish a video of the damaged Kerch bridge, reportedly filmed from a train on the railway part of the bridge.
0:13 ( )

3:11 AM · Jul 17, 2023:
Russian media publish a video, reportedly from Chonhar bridge, of a huge traffic jam of those wishing to leave Crimea.
0:10 ( )

3:50 AM · Jul 17, 2023
Today's situation at the Kerch may be a provocation by Russia - spokesperson for Operational Command "South" Natalia Humeniuk.

According to her, it may be related to Kremlin's unwillingness to extend the grain agreement.

According to Reuters, the last ship left the Odesa port on the eve of the expiration of the "grain agreement." The information about the vessel's departure is also confirmed by data from the MarineTraffic website.

If the Russia does not agree to an additional extension of the agreement, it expires today, Monday.

The Kremlin has repeatedly threatened to stop the prolongation of the "grain deal".

{ETA} 4:35 AM · Jul 17, 2023:
Russian foreign affairs ministry: the decision to attack Kerch bridge was made by Ukrainian officials and military with the participation of American and British special services.

Head of international issues committee in Russian parliament: "the collective West, sponsoring the NeoNazi regime, bears full responsibility for the act of terror on Crimea bridge."

TACC text ( )

{ETA} 4:50 AM · Jul 17, 2023:
The Kremlin and Putin have not issued any reactions to the explosion on Kerch Bridge.

Are they taking their time choosing which Russian general will be punished for that?

DW News @dwnews | 4:32 AM · Jul 17, 2023:
LATEST: Russia has accused Ukraine of attacking a vital bridge that links Russia and Crimea, with the help of the US and UK. Traffic was earlier halted on the route due to an "emergency situation."

Ukraine: Russia decries Crimea bridge attack, blames Kyiv
Russia has accused Ukraine of attacking a vital bridge that links Russia and Crimea, with the help of the US and UK. Traffic was earlier halted on the route due to an "emergency situation." Follow DW...

jul 17, 7:20 am

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 6:52 AM · Jul 17, 2023

Russian "military correspondent" on Russia stopping the grain deal. He's not sure it will remain stopped for long:

"Recall that only three days have passed since Russia's last demonstrative withdrawal from the grain deal in November 2022 before returning to it. During that time, grain exports from Ukrainian ports did not stop, and no measures were taken from Russia to prevent shipping. The deal was extended.

Thus, without real steps on our part, Turkey, Ukraine and other countries may simply ignore the unsubstantiated statements about the termination of the deal and continue to export grain further, putting the Russian leadership in front of a difficult choice."

Russian text ( )

jul 17, 7:35 am

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en 7:24 AM · Jul 17, 2023:

Russian media post a video of a traffic jam from Crimea in the direction of temporarily occupied by {Russia} Melitopol. Reportedly, the jam is over 5 km long.

0:45 ( )

jul 17, 7:41 am

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 6:42 AM · Jul 17, 2023:

A Russian "military correspondent" writes that Russia does not think proactively about the protection of Kerch Bridge. Therefore, attacks on the bridge will continue as "the enemy finds another loophole," he says.

"According to available data, the Crimean Bridge was blown up by unmanned jet skis that reached their target by water in the middle of the night.

The lack of protection of the bridge from such threats is the consequence of bureaucratic thinking, which can only react to events that have already taken place, but not prevent them.

After the bridge was blown up by an explosive truck, total security checks of all vehicles started, and after attempts of missile attacks and UAV strikes, air defense and electronic warfare in the area were significantly strengthened.

But none of these measures were introduced in advance, only as a reactive response. So the enemy has devised a new way of attacking the bridge where it is not protected by anything. Now, of course, they will put booms along the bridge, patrol it with boats and so on, but what is the point, when everything has already happened. And then the enemy will find another loophole, which we do not try to detect in advance and close."

Russian text ( )

jul 18, 7:38 am

Anton Gerashchenko erashchenko_en | 5:34 AM · Jul 18, 2023:

I posted this video from a Belarus school camp yesterday.

Today, new details of the story emerged - the children are actually kidnapped Ukrainian children. There are more than 2,000 of them in Belarus - The Telegraph.

"'So that Biden and Zelenskyy die, and Putin prospers and takes control of all Ukraine' - Belarusian singers the Gruzdev sisters address abducted Ukrainian children.*

The video, according to The Telegraph, was filmed at Dubrava sanatorium in Belarus.

Journalists found out that about 2,150 Ukrainian children over the age of 6 have been taken to Zubrenok" and the camp "Dubrava". Another one - "Golden Sands" - is located in Gomel region.

Journalists have data that in similar camps in Russia, children were subjected to forced "re-education" and beaten for refusing to obey, as well as taught to condemn Ukraine. In some cases, children were also trained to use weapons.

Evidence of these crimes involving Lukashenko and other Belarusian officials has been referred to the International Criminal Court (ICC), The Telegraph reported.

Read the article here:
* 0:15 ( )


jul 18, 7:56 am

Shippers won't be able to get insurance under these circumstances... Even if insurance available, a shipper (Great Lakes) once told m that every day ships are idle, owners lose $20K. US offered Ukraine $500 million in humanitarian aid, and is looking for ways to get the grain out...

Russia strikes Ukraine grain port after pulling out of export deal
Reuters |18 July 2023

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 1:59 AM · Jul 18, 2023:

Massive Russian attack on the South of Ukraine last night.

25 Shahed drones were destroyed by Ukrainian air defense in Mykolaiv and Odesa region - "South" OC.

6 Kalibr cruise missiles were aimed at Odesa by Russia and shot down by Ukrainian Air Forces. Fragments of the rockets and the blast wave damaged port infrastructure objects and several private homes. One elderly person was injured.

jul 19, 8:50 am

>42 margd:

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:57 AM · Jul 19, 2023:
Massive Russian attack on Odesa last night.

◾️X-22 and Oniks missiles hit a grain and oil terminals: reservoirs and equipment damaged, a fire started.
◾️A blast wave damaged residential buildings. At least 6 people, including a 9 year old boy, were injured
◾️Ukrainian air defense shot down an X-59 missile near the shore. It fell in one of Odesa districts, creating a large crater and damaging buildings around it. Three people were injured.
◾️Two industrial objects and two warehouses were hit in one of the districts. One person injured.
◾️Eight Shahed drones shot down in Odesa region. Fragments damaged hotels and injured two people.

This is what summer nights look like when you've got a terrorist state for a neighbor.
0:05 ( )

Instead of Putin, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov will attend BRICs mtg in S Africa:

Russia tells South Africa that arresting Putin would mean 'declaration of war'
DW | 18 July 2023

Moscow warned South Africa that arresting Russian President Vladimir Putin would amount to a "declaration of war," said the southern country on Tuesday.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Putin in March for alleged war crimes in Ukraine.

Putin has been invited to Johannesburg for a summit held by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) from August 22 to 24, despite the warrant.

South Africa is currently facing increasing international pressure to execute the arrest warrant if Putin attends the summit.

After Russia's threat to South Africa, the country has applied to the ICC for an exemption.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa made it clear that he could not justify "taking the risk of war with Russia" and that he was committed to "protecting the national sovereignty, peace and security," of his nation.

jul 19, 8:53 am

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 7:48 AM · Jul 18, 2023:

Russian media "Mozhem Obyasnit" reports the end of Wagner PMC:
"Wagner PMC will no longer exist, this is the decision of the Chief." Prigozhin's PMC has ceased to exist, most of its mercenaries will go to Shoigu.

Wagner PMC that didn't exist on paper has now been closed as an unofficial armed formation as well. This was reported to the project "We Can Explain" by four sources: an official close to the presidential administration, an interlocutor close to the PMC and two veterans of "Wagner".

🔹The decision to liquidate "Wagner" in Russia is final and was made personally by Vladimir Putin, says a source close to the Presidential Administration in the Ministry of Defence. "There will be no Wagner in Russia - this is the decision of " Chief ". They will not be in Molkino either, Defense Ministry contractors and fighters of other PMCs will remain there," he claims. About the fact that Prigozhin's mercenaries will no longer be in Molkino, says another source of the Ministry of Defence, close to this PMC. "Right now, several thousand fighters are indeed moving out of Molkino."

🔹Now the process of separation of "Wagner" is underway, says a fighter of this PMC. According to him, the authorities offer everyone to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense. Of those who have made their decision - most of the rank-and-file Prigozhin mercenaries have decided to go to Shoigu's ministry. The project interlocutor did not provide specific figures. But a Wagner veteran, who has been fighting in this formation for more than five years, told the Ministry of Defence: "The most experienced of his infantrymen remained with Prigozhin, and no one is going to take them under the wing of the Defense Ministry."

🔹 In Russia, recruitment for Wagner PMC has been stopped, the correspondent of the Ministry of Defence was convinced. Most of the company's phones for recruiting new employees are unavailable. Two numbers play the message "wait for connection with the operator", but for 5 minutes it still does not happen. Wagner's foreman, nicknamed Bavarets, is also unavailable - he doesn't answer either by phone or in messengers, although he used to be available almost around the clock. Most groups in Russian social media VLkontakte, dedicated to Wagner PMC, are blocked "at the request of the Prosecutor General's Office".

🔹Several hundred Wagner fighters are already in Belarus, but they are practically disarmed, another PMC veteran says. "They did surrender equipment to the Ministry of Defense. Not all of it, but 90 percent - for sure," he said. Lithuanian National Defense Minister Arvydas Anushauskas said roughly the same thing the other day. "I wouldn't call them units, I would call them groups that are transferred to Belarus without weapons, ammunition and logistics, the number is small," Anušauskas claimed. Monitoring group "Belaruski Gayun" reported that a column of "Wagnerites" was traveling to a tent camp in the village of Ciel. According to its data, today Prigozhin's plane landed at the military airfield in Machulishchy."

jul 20, 9:48 am

Oh dear...

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 8:45 AM · Jul 20, 2023:

A statement by Ukrainian Defense Ministry:

‼️The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine warns that from 00:00 July 21, 2023, all vessels heading through the waters of the Black Sea in the direction of seaports of the Russian Federation and Ukrainian seaports located on the territory of Ukraine that is temporarily occupied by Russia may be considered by Ukraine as carrying military cargo with all the associated risks.

In addition, navigation in the areas of the North-Eastern part of the Black Sea and the Kerch-Yenikal Strait of Ukraine is prohibited as dangerous, from 05:00 on July 20, 2023. Relevant navigational information for mariners has already been published.

The Russian Federation has once again brutally violated the universal right to free navigation for the whole world and is deliberately undermining food security, condemning millions of people to starvation.

By openly threatening civilian ships transporting food from Ukrainian ports, launching missile attacks and drone attacks on civilian infrastructure in peaceful cities, deliberately creating a military threat on trade routes, the Kremlin has turned the Black Sea into a danger zone, primarily for Russian ships and ships heading in the waters of the Black Sea in the direction of seaports of the Russian Federation and Ukrainian seaports located on the territory of Ukraine temporarily occupied by Russia. The responsibility for all risks lies entirely with the Russian leadership.

The fate of the cruiser "Moscow" proves that the Defense Forces of Ukraine have the necessary means to repel Russian aggression at sea.

Link to the @DefenceU statement (in Ukrainian):
Last edited

Redigerat: jul 23, 5:02 am

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:58 AM · Jul 23, 2023:
Transfiguration Cathedral in Odesa after the Russian attack last night.
Will terrorist Russia say it was an ammunition warehouse? Or a secret biolab?

(Photos at

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:30 AM · Jul 23, 2023:

Odesa city center this morning.
The city center is on UNESCO World Heritage List. No military objects there, obviously.

0:42 ( )

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 4:22 AM · Jul 23, 2023:

Russian defense ministry commented on their strike on Odesa:

"Tonight, the Armed Forces launched a strike with long-range sea and air-based high-precision weapons at facilities where terrorist acts against the Russian Federation were being prepared using unmanned boats, as well as at places where they were manufactured in the Odessa region. Foreign mercenaries were on the affected objects. All targets planned to strike are destroyed," the statement says.

On the video: Transfiguration Cathedral in Odesa, apparently the site of "foreign mercenaries" and "unmanned boats terror acts preparation".

0:39 ( )

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:13 AM · Jul 23, 2023:

The largest Russian attack on Odesa last night.

Russia used at least 5 types of missiles in the attack: Caliber, Onyx, Kh-22, Iskander-K and Iskander-M - "South" OC.

19 people wounded, 1 dead.

6 homes, including residential buildings, destroyed. Architectural landmarks, including a church, damaged. Dozens of cars destroyed. Many buildings have broken windows, damaged roofs and facades - Odesa regional military administration.

(Photos at )

Володимир Зеленський @ZelenskyyUa | 2:11 AM · Jul 23, 2023:

Missiles against peaceful cities, against residential buildings, a cathedral... There can be no excuse for Russian evil. As always, this evil will lose. And there will definitely be a retaliation to Russian terrorists for Odesa. They will feel this retaliation.

All those who suffered from this latest terrorist attack are being provided with assistance.
I am grateful to everyone who is helping people and to everyone who is with Odesa in their thoughts and emotions. We will get through this. We will restore peace. And for this, we must defeat the Russian evil.

(Photos at )

Euromaidan Press @EuromaidanPress | 9:41 PM · Jul 22, 2023:

During tonight’s missile attack, Russia hit and partially destroyed the Transfiguration Orthodox Cathedral in Odesa

One of the most beautiful churches in the city, it was built in 1794, then blown up by Stalin in 1936, and rebuilt during Independent Ukraine.
Residential houses were also damaged and there are wounded.
0:34 ( )

Redigerat: jul 24, 10:21 am

There's an online Zoom event with peace activist Medea Benjamin who has just returned from Ukraine, Saturday, 29th July 2023, beginning at 11am Pacific/ 12pm Mountain/ 1pm Central/ 2pm Eastern time.

Medea Benjamin is one of the leading peace activists, organizers, and movement leaders in the {USA}. She is the co-founder of the women-led peace organization, CODEPINK (visit and Global Exchange (visit She also founded the Peace In Ukraine Coalition; Unfreeze Afghanistan (which advocates for the returning the $7 billion of Afghan funds frozen in U.S. banks); and ACERE, the Alliance for Cuba Engagement and Respect. Medea has been an advocate for peace and social justice full time for fifty years. New York Newsday describes her as “one of America’s most committed—and most effective—fighters for human rights.” The Los Angeles Times calls her “one of the high profile leaders of the peace movement.” Her most recent book is War In Ukraine: Making Sense of a Senseless Conflict.

Details and online registration here

jul 25, 12:36 am

Why Are We in Ukraine? (Harpers)

On the dangers of American hubris... From Murmansk in the Arctic to Varna on the Black Sea, the armed camps of NATO and the Russian Federation menace each other across a new Iron Curtain. Unlike the long twilight struggle that characterized the Cold War, the current confrontation is running decidedly hot... the United States is fighting a proxy war with Russia... To most American policymakers, politicians, and pundits—liberals and conservatives, Democrats and Republicans—the reasons for this perilous situation are clear. Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, an aging and bloodthirsty authoritarian, launched an unprovoked attack on a fragile democracy... This conventional story is, in our view, both simplistic and self-serving. It fails to account for the well-documented—and perfectly comprehensible—objections that Russians have expressed toward NATO expansion over the past three decades, and obscures the central responsibility that the architects of U.S. foreign policy bear for the impasse. Both the global role that Washington has assigned itself generally, and America’s specific policies toward NATO and Russia, have led inexorably to war—as many foreign policy critics, ourselves among them, have long warned that they would... a good deal of evidence suggests that the {US} administration’s real—if only semi-acknowledged—objective is to topple Russia’s government... The policies that Washington has pursued toward Moscow and Kyiv, often under the banner of righteousness and duty, have created conditions that make the risk of nuclear war between the United States and Russia greater than it has ever been. Far from making the world safer by setting it in order, we have made it all the more dangerous.

The above is a very long and detailed article and it's well worth reading the whole thing.

‘Nature is being destroyed’: Russia’s arms buildup in Barents Sea creating toxic legacy (Guardian)

Indigenous people and experts say Moscow’s military push and increased shipping and mining will destroy Arctic environment...

An area of Ukraine approximately the size of Florida is now riddled with land mines, which could take hundreds of years to reverse: report (Business Insider)

With Russian forces having laid down mines across broad areas of Ukraine, it is now the most mined country in the world, and the mines — in addition to unexploded bombs and artillery shells — are now prevalent in an area of Ukraine roughly the size of Florida... The drastic changes to the Ukrainian heartland not only threaten the country long-term... While there are ongoing efforts to remove the mines, also referred to as unexploded ordnance, the full scope of the situation will likely be unknown for some time as the conflict continues. However, according to data already collected by the Ukrainian government and humanitarian mine clearance organizations, the direness of the situation may last for generations. Greg Crowther, the director of programs for the Mines Advisory Group, a nongovernmental organization that aids individuals affected by land mines, told The Post that the mine situation in Ukraine was unlike anything seen in recent decades. "The sheer quantity of ordnance in Ukraine is just unprecedented in the last 30 years. There's nothing like it"... GLOBSEC, a global think tank, recently published a report revealing that about 30% of Ukraine, covering more than 67,000 square miles, had been subject to heavy fighting and would require thorough clearance operations. The report also detailed the lengths taken by Russian forces to make vast expanses of Ukrainian farmland either too difficult to navigate or effectively unusable...

jul 25, 8:32 am

‘It’s guns versus butter’: Russia on the brink as Putin’s war chest empties
Melissa Lawford | Mon, July 24, 2023

President Vladimir Putin had built up what was dubbed a “fortress balance sheet” with huge cash reserves that helped the Kremlin weather the loss of foreign investment.

... Life in Moscow remained largely unchanged.
At least initially.

Today, cash reserves are dwindling. Oil revenues have nearly halved. Russia is losing its workforce as thousands flee conscription, are sent to fight or die on the front lines. Foreign investment has disappeared and the rouble has plunged. Inflation is gathering pace.

...While Putin was clearly prepared for the initial economic impact of the war in Ukraine, the conflict has dragged on far longer than he expected. As a result, the economy is increasingly exposed to the ongoing fighting and Putin is running out of options...

jul 25, 8:39 am

Russia attacks Danube grain export route vital for Ukraine
Olena Harmash and Tom Balmforth | July 24, 2023

...three grain warehouses had been destroyed in the Danube port city of Reni during the drone attack.

..."This recent escalation poses serious risks to the security in the Black Sea," Romanian President Klaus Iohannis said on Twitter.

Since Russia's invasion in February 2022, Ukraine has expanded grain exports overland via the EU to about 1 million tons a month, with large volumes being exported from Romanian ports and along the Danube.

"Russia has in the past months not attacked Ukraine's overland and inland waterways grain infrastructure," a European trader said. "Any interruption of this traffic could quickly hit international grain supplies.

A French trader called it a "major development and a major blow" to Ukrainian exports, adding: "Without the Black Sea corridor and now with attacks on alternative routes, it will be hard to take Ukrainian grains out of the country."

...Some Ukrainian news outlets reported explosions overnight in the area of Izmail, another Danube port in the Odesa region, but no confirmed reports of damage followed.

Ship-tracking Data showed almost 30 ships had dropped anchor near Izmail. It was not clear what caused them to stop.

Redigerat: jul 26, 4:14 am

Brave Russians standing up to Putin regime should not be forgotten:

Jens Siegert @jenssiegert | 12:23 AM · Jul 26, 2023:
Optimist. Living still in Moscow. At least as long as they let me. Russia is (for the good and for the worse) Europe.

Next political prisoner in Russia: Sociologist, left-wing politician and former soviet dissident Boris Kargalitsky. He has been arrested under the accusation of "justifying terrorism", what is, of course, nonsense.

РБК – новости в реальном времени
Дочь Кагарлицкого сообщила о его местонахождении после возбуждения
Бориса Кагарлицкого, против которого завели дело по статье об оправдании терроризма, этапировали в Сыктывкар, сообщила его дочь. По ее словам, меру пресечения изберут в четверг

jul 29, 9:16 am

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 8:20 AM · Jul 29, 2023

"We did not come for gifts" - South Africa's president demanded that Putin resume the grain deal.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa called on Vladimir Putin to resume the grain deal and not to block Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea. He expressed appreciation for Russia's offer of free grain supplies to six African countries. However, he emphasized that it was more important for these countries to participate in the grain deal than to receive "charitable aid," according to a transcript on the Kremlin website.

"We proposed to implement the Black Sea grain initiative, we talked about the need to open the Black Sea, we said that we would like the Black Sea to be open to world markets. And we did not come here to ask for some 'gifts' for the African continent. Of course, we understand that out of generosity you decided to donate grain to some African countries that are facing certain difficulties. We have great respect for that, we note that. However, it is not our main goal here, it is not our main goal to achieve any supplies of this nature," Ramaphosa stated.

Russian authorities terminated their participation in the grain deal on July 17.
Photo ( )

jul 29, 9:26 am

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 7:32 AM · Jul 29, 2023:

A hundred of PMC Wagner mercenaries have been deployed to the area of Suwałki Gap (the territory of Poland and Lithuania, which separates Belarus from Russia's Kaliningrad region) - Polish Prime Minister Mateusz @MorawieckiM during a visit to the factory in Gliwice, where the Leopard tanks damaged in Ukraine are repaired.

"It is likely that they will conceal themselves as Belarus border guards and help illegal migrants enter Poland to destabilize the country. It is also likely that they will also try to enter Poland under the guise of illegal migrants, which will create additional risks," the Polish prime minister said.

Morawiecki regarded it as a "continuation of the hybrid offensive on Polish territory".

Earlier, deputies of Russian parliament mentioned that PMC Wagner fighters might try to seize the Suwałki Gap.

📹: @TheKremlinYap
1:42 ( )

jul 29, 9:43 am

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:58 AM · Jul 29, 2023

At the Russia-Africa summit, Putin started talking about negotiations with Ukraine again.
"Neutral status of Ukraine is of principal importance to us," he said.
He also repeated the main narratives of the Kremlin propaganda about Ukraine.
1:18 ( )


Only 17 African countries attended Russian summit; last time 42:

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 10:43 AM · Jul 28, 2023
"You don't go to St Petersburg, you get a coup" - Russian propagandists have their own assessment of the coup in Niger.
2:44 ( )

Prune60 @Prune602 | 4:03 PM · Jul 27, 2023
Margarita Simonyan (Head of RT) has explained the situation in Niger.

Interesting…if that was the case, a lot of African leaders STILL chose not to come.

Screenshot of Margarita Simonyan’s tweet (I refuse to call them what ever new ridiculous name they’re trying to make happen) from today. Google Translated: The president of Niger did not want to come to our African summit, so his own military overthrew him. Note to the owner


jul 29, 9:45 am

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 9:32 AM · Jul 29, 2023:

In Russia, a 9-year-old girl and a 10-year-old boy were summoned for questioning in relation to "discrediting the Russian armed forces".

An investigator in Russian Arkhangelsk region (Russia) served summonses to the mother. She herself is a suspect, and her children are "witnesses".

The family lives in the closed town of Mirny, not far from Plesetsk Cosmodrome and several military units. The woman was brought to administrative responsibility for anti-war posts on social media last September.

Text, Russian ( )

jul 30, 1:18 pm

Supporters of Niger’s coup march through the capital waving Russian flags and denouncing France
Russian President Vladimir Putin would like to expand his country’s influence in the region.
Associated Press | 07/30/2023

Thousands of supporters of the junta that took over Niger in a coup earlier this week marched through the streets of the capital, Niamey, on Sunday waving Russian flags, chanting the name of the Russian president and forcefully denouncing former colonial power France.

Russian mercenary group Wagner is already operating in neighboring Mali, and Russian President Vladimir Putin would like to expand his country’s influence in the region, but it is unclear yet whether the new junta leaders are going to move toward Moscow or stick with Niger’s Western partners.

...The mutineers said they overthrew President Mohamed Bazoum, who was elected two years ago in Niger’s first peaceful, democratic transfer of power since independence from France, because he wasn’t able to secure the nation from growing jihadi violence. But some analysts and Nigeriens say that’s just a pretext for a takeover that is more about internal power struggles than securing the nation.

...Niger until now has been seen as the last reliable partner for the West in efforts to battle the jihadists in Africa’s Sahel region, where Russia and Western countries have vied for influence in the fight against extremism. France has 1,500 soldiers in the country who conduct joint operations with the Nigeriens, and the United States and other European countries have helped train the nation’s troops.

Some taking part in Sunday’s rally also warned regional bodies who have denounced the coup to stay away. “I would like also to say to the European Union, African Union and ECOWAS, please please stay out of our business,” said Oumar Barou Moussa who was at the demonstration...

jul 31, 4:47 am

How Russian colonialism took the Western anti-imperialist Left for a ride
Blindness to Russian colonialism distorts Westerners’ view of the Ukraine war
Alaric DeArment | July 29, 2023

...The full-scale invasion of Ukraine has cast a long-overdue spotlight on Russian imperialism and colonialism, yet many Westerners fail to grapple with how Russia's colonial legacy continues to this day and is part and parcel to its war against Ukraine and descent into fascism. Consequently, many end up whatabouting, excusing and even overtly sympathizing with an empire whose colonial practices mirror those of historical Western European empires in cruelty, chauvinism, thievery, exploitation, cultural erasure, racism and genocide and that is now ruthlessly attempting to conquer one of its neighbors...

aug 1, 12:26 am

Coups resurgence signal return of cold war (Star)

"Dear Africans. Military coups are contagious. What is happening in Niger, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali, and Sudan happened in the 1960s. Then it spread," he said. "It is the last frontier of decolonisation. The Cold War is back. The Theatre of war in Africa and its resources"...

Niger coup: ‘Why I want Russia in and France out’ (BBC)

In a sign of growing hostility towards the West since the coup in Niger, a businessman proudly shows off his outfit in the colours of the Russian flag in the traditional heartland of deposed President Mohamed Bazoum. Since the coup, there has been a war of words between the military and the West. Mr Bazoum was a staunch ally of the West in the fight against militant Islamists, and was a strong economic partner as well. Niger hosts a French military base and is the world's seventh biggest producer of uranium. The fuel is vital for nuclear power with a quarter of it going to Europe, especially former colonial power France. Since General Abdourahamane Tchiani overthrew the president in a coup on 26 July, Russian colours have suddenly appeared on the streets.
Thousands took part in a protest in the capital Niamey on Sunday, with some waving Russian flags and even attacking the French embassy. It now seems this "movement" is spreading across the country...

>57 margd:

While the article you quote makes some valid observations about Russian dynamics, the attention-grabbing headline about "the Western anti-imperialist Left" is misleading. If anything I would say it was the profit-seeking Western capitalist Right which has been misreading Russia. And as the two articles I quote suggest, there is not only one colonial and imperial bloc at work, in competition for resources. Anti-imperialists in Africa and elsewhere, who often tend to be left of centre, have been well aware of this and, while they may have been helpless to prevent it, have not been "taken for a ride". Africa is once again becoming a proxy battleground for major powers, including Russia, China and "the west", and its resources are once again being mercilessly exploited.

aug 3, 4:51 am

Gnats. If we don't get a handle on climate, Africa won't have to worry much longer about major powers, although the situation will get much worse before it gets better...

South African Institute of International Affairs @SAIIA_info | 4:11 AM · Aug 3, 2023:

Join us this afternoon as our experts reflect on the outcomes of the #RussiaAfricaSummit and analyse the current state of Russia-Africa relations.

The event will feature the launch of Dr.@SamRamani2
's book, ‘Russia in Africa: Resurgent Great Power or Bellicose Pretender’.@ZiyandaNgcobo as our moderator..

⏰3 PM – 4:30 PM SAST
💻Register here:


aug 3, 5:04 am

More gnats compared to the unaddressed climate disaster, though unbearably sad this desecration of church, heritage, and always, the taking of innocent lives:

Anne Applebaum The Atlantic} @anneapplebaum | 4:24 AM · Aug 3, 2023

This is Kherson cathedral, built by Potemkin; he was buried there too. The Russians took his bones with them when they left Kherson last autumn. Now they are shelling it.

Quote Tweet
FLASH @Flash_news_ua | 4:10 AM · Aug 3, 2023:
⚡️Kherson Regional Military Administration shared a video with the consequences of the morning russian shelling of the cathedral in the center of Kherson.
0:44 ( )

Anne Applebaum {The Atlantic} @anneapplebaum | 4:26 AM · Aug 3, 2023:
they also shelled rescue workers putting out the fire at the cathedral

Occupiers fire at cathedral in Kherson for second time; four rescuers injured
Interfax | 3 August 2023
Four rescuers of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine were injured as a result of repeated shelling of St. Catherine's Cathedral in Kherson on Thursday morning...

aug 3, 5:22 am


Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 5:17 AM · Aug 3, 2023:

Russian media report that companies associated with Yevgeny Prigozhin signed government contracts worth at least 2 billion rubles (about $21,409 million) in the month following the military mutiny. Prigozhin's firms managed not to lose large orders for hot lunches for schoolchildren in cities near Moscow,

The federal state children's camp Artek (occupied Crimea) also continued to cooperate with Prigozhin's firms.

Among other state customers of catering services from the companies of the head of "PMC Wagner" after the mutiny were also several hospitals in Moscow and Moscow region.

Text, Ru ( )

aug 3, 11:03 am

Analysis: Who Benefits From Niger’s Coup?
Most global powers with a military presence or financial stake in the country stand to lose from instability—and that could put pressure on the military junta.
Samuel Ramani 2 August 2023

...Russia’s seemingly sympathetic reaction to Tchiani’s coup was a striking outlier. While Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov vaguely supported the restoration of “constitutional order” in Niger, he accused the U.S. government of double standards for condemning Tchiani’s coup and supporting the February 2014 “coup” in Ukraine that ousted President Viktor Yanukovych, Despite his recent feud with the Kremlin, Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin described the coup as a victory against Western colonialism and offered the services of his private military contractors to the Nigerien military...

...While Niger’s near-term political trajectory is shrouded in uncertainty, rampant instability would be detrimental to the interests of every major external stakeholder. These financial interests and security imperatives could convince outside powers to strike a Faustian bargain with Niger’s junta, while pressuring Tchiani to accept a framework for a transition to civilian rule. Tchiani now has a choice whether to pursue a multi-vector foreign policy that balances rival powers or follow the pro-Russian path of junta leaders in Mali and Burkina Faso.

aug 3, 4:35 pm

The Trump Indictment Has Team Putin Shaking in Their Boots
Julia Davis | Aug. 02, 2023

Russian state media stars are panicking about how the former president’s latest legal firestorm could ultimately hurt Moscow.

...The duo (morning show Full Contact, decorated state TV propagandist Vladimir Solovyov & Solovyov’s guest, Russian pundit Dmitry Evstafiev ) concluded Trump’s only potential solution for this problem would be to incite a civil war in the United States.

...Alexander Gusev, a contributor to the Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry magazine, ... “For us, it’s very important to get the support of the global south, to create an anti-Western, an anti-American coalition”—to which (state TV show 60 Minutes host Olga Skabeeva) replied, “Let’s bear in mind that we’ve started doing that already.”...

aug 4, 4:27 am

>53 margd: contd.

Sarah Ashton-Cirillo @SarahAshtonLV | 1:10 PM · Aug 3, 2023:
🇺🇦JSgt : Armed Forces of Ukraine🇺🇦 Infantry 🇺🇦Host of Territorial Defense Forces' Media Studios shows “Ukraine in the Know” & “Russia Hates the Truth”🇺🇦

Our Polish allies are not hiding the fact they are ready to decimate the Kremlin’s Wagner war criminals and Moscow Belarus puppets:

Helicopters are armed and ready for battle. There are very experienced pilots here, there are pilots who used airborne weapons and missiles with me in Afghanistan and Iraq. They are experienced. If there is something alarming, they will use weapons without hesitation," proclaimed General of the Polish Army, Marek Sokolovsky.

Redigerat: aug 4, 4:38 am

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 4:16 AM · Aug 4, 2023:
"It is sinking while it is being towed" - another video appeared of the Russian landing ship Olenegorskiy gornyak that was reportedly damaged by a surface drone this morning.
0:24 ( )

NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 @NOELreports | 2:35 AM · Aug 4, 2023:
Big news coming from port city Novorossiysk, Russia. Ukrainian Naval drones attacked it and managed to damage the Russian Project 775 war/landing ship Olenegorsky Gornyk which is now floating on its side and is towed away.
0:21 ( )

Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 | 2:21 AM · Aug 4, 2023:
Aggregating and curating news, politics, current affairs, history and culture from Central and Eastern Europe.🇨🇿🇭🇺🇵🇱🇸🇰

Ukraine has attacked Russia’s biggest port in the northern Caucasus, Novorossiysk, with naval and aerial drones overnight.

The Black Sea is becoming smaller and smaller for Russia.

0:29 ( )
From Getty


aug 4, 4:43 am

Dmitri @wartranslated | 3:42 AM · Aug 4, 2023:
🇪🇪 Estonian blogger focusing on Russia/Ukraine

Russians have a new fear unlocked: as Dva Mayora reports, Ukrainians started dropping contraptions that imitate the sound of gunfire on Russian positions during combat, making them think they're encircled 🤣 But even more so, Russians found children's toys that "echo and repeat" any sounds they pick up to confuse the hell out of Russians and warn Ukrainians.
Text English ( )
Text Russian ( )

aug 4, 11:02 am

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 9:07 AM · Aug 4, 2023:

Russians are now actively discussing the following news:

Chairman of the Defense Committee of the State Duma (Russian parliament) Andrey Kartapolov:
"We came up with an initiative to supplement Article 328 of the Russian Criminal Code with part three, which will refer to the punishment for evading mobilization. We believe that this will be a fine of up to half a million rubles (about $5,000) or imprisonment for up to five years. The Government has supported our initiative and provided a positive review".

By the way, journalist Alexander Nevzorov, commented on this bill and assumed that amputation of healthy limbs {to evade conscription?} will soon become the most popular medical service in Russia.

Well, I'm not surprised.
Photo ( )

aug 4, 5:39 pm

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 5:14 PM · Aug 4, 2023:

Russian media report explosions and drone attack on the Kerch Bridge.

Reportedly, traffic has been stopped and lights on the bridge were turned off.

Photo ( )

aug 5, 6:40 am

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 5:42 AM · Aug 5, 2023:

A surface drone has been discovered in the sea near Sevastopol {Crimea}, attempts are made to destroy it.

"In Sevastopol maritime zone, in the open sea, the Navy has detected a surface drone, which at the moment continues to move. All necessary measures are being taken to destroy it. In this regard, special services made a decision to limit the movement of small boats from Balaklava to the beaches and back", - writes the "head" of Sevastopol Razvozhayev.

0:33 ( )

Redigerat: aug 5, 9:43 am

OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical | 3:01 AM · Aug 5, 2023
analyst, CNA (a nonprofit research and analysis organization)

...The Russian tanker hit overnight by a Ukrainian USV, Sig, was a prolific sanctions violator and a major lifeline for the Russian war effort in Syria.

In 2019, the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned the Sig, along with several other vessels and individuals for "participating in a sanctions evasion scheme to facilitate the delivery of jet fuel to Russian forces operating in Syria"
Text ( )

"Sovfracht is behind a sanctions evasion conspiracy, orchestrated by the three individuals designated today, to make payments and facilitate the transfer of supplies of jet fuel to Russian forces operating in Syria in support of the Assad government."

I dug up Sig's AIS records { } from the past year, and it tells a very clear story of near-monthly fuel deliveries.
Sig would sail AIS on until it hit the eastern Mediterranian, go dark for roughly a week, and then pop back up heading towards Russia.
But where was it going?
Map ( )

Thankfully, OFAC {} gave us a pretty good idea of where "These transactions facilitated the sale and delivery of jet fuel in 2016 and 2017 to Banias, Syria, which was used by Russian military aircraft."
Aerial photo ( )

From the AIS records, I could identify 9 trips in the last 12 months
Table ( )

Pulling Sentinel-2 imagery, I was able to ID the Sig sitting off the coast of Baniyas on 3 of those trips:
(clockwise from left) 2023-1-10, 2023-2-19, 2023-5-15.
Aerial maps

{Obsessive ship spotter by the Bosphorus Straits} Yörük has been absolutely on top of Sig and its sister ship Yaz since 2020:

On 2023-2-19 you can actually see both Sig and Yaz sitting off the coast of Baniyas. This was a major ID confirmation for the low res Sentinel data:
Yörük was able to confirm the pair's outbound trip together on the 15th:

Stephen Westwood @Fullyfallible | 3:44 AM · Aug 5, 2023:
"These ships are working for Russian armed forces or other Russian government contractors,” said Yörük Işık, a geopolitical analyst from the Istanbul-based consultancy Bosphorus Observer. “Not only are these ships sanctioned themselves, but the company that owns them is..... sanctioned, all their routes are sanctioned, and they are technically trading stolen petroleum from an unlawfully seized property of the Ukrainian government."

Three Ukrainian regions contain hydrocarbons resources: the Dnipro-Donetsk basin, the Carpathian region in western Ukraine, and the Black Sea and Crimea region in the south. The Dnipro-Donetsk basin is a major oil and gas producing region accounting for 90 percent of all current Ukrainian production.

aug 6, 12:26 am

Russia's planting mines everywhere, even cruelly hiding explosives in everyday items like fridges, toys, and children's books, Ukrainian military engineers say (Business Insider

expelling the Russians from towns, cities, and rural areas doesn't mean eliminating the threat altogether. Occupying soldiers have left behind a deadly and vicious problem for Ukraine — one that will cause it headaches for years and years to come: the widespread deployment of land mines and traps. Russia has practically mined everything, Ukrainian military engineers told Insider in a recent interview. And they often do so for no obvious tactical advantage. For instance, they cruelly hide explosives in everyday household items like refrigerators, toys, and even children's books. The goal is simply to inflict as much damage as possible... Between Russia's current defensive lines and the mines left behind from earlier phases of the war, Ukraine has effectively become the most mined country in the world — with some officials suggesting that over 40 percent of the country's territory may be contaminated. It could take centuries to clean up all the explosives at a cost of tens of billions of dollars. Some observers have even suggested it may never be completely demined...

aug 6, 6:55 am

>70 margd: contd.

The White Helmets @SyriaCivilDef | 4:44 PM · Aug 5, 2023:
We're the Syria Civil Defence (White Helmets), our humanitarian work helps communities prepare for, respond to & recover from attacks. We've saved +127k lives.

White Helmets volunteer Mustafa Khadura comforts the child Haitham after he and his 3 siblings were injured as a result of artillery shelling by the regime forces and Russia this Saturday evening. Aug. 5. in Jisr Al-Shughur, west of #Idlib.
0:40 ( )

aug 6, 9:03 am

Niger’s junta asks for help from Russian group Wagner as it faces military intervention threat
SAM MEDNICK | August 5, 2023

...The request came during a visit by a coup leader, Gen. Salifou Mody, to neighboring Mali, where he made contact with someone from Wagner, Wassim Nasr, a journalist and senior research fellow at the Soufan Center, told The Associated Press. He said three Malian sources and a French diplomat confirmed the meeting first reported by France 24...

Niger’s junta faces a Sunday deadline set by the West African} regional bloc, known as ECOWAS, to release and reinstate the democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum, who has described himself as a hostage...

...It isn’t possible to say Russia is directly involved in Niger’s coup, but “clearly, there’s an opportunistic attitude on the part of Russia, which tries to support destabilization efforts wherever it finds them,” French foreign affairs ministry spokeswoman Anne-Claire Legendre told broadcaster BFM on Friday. For days after Niger’s junta seized power, residents waved Russian flags in the streets...

...Niger’s military leaders have been following the playbook of Mali and neighboring Burkina Faso, also run by a junta, but they’re moving faster to consolidate power, {Wassim Nasr, a journalist and senior research fellow at the Soufan Center,} said...

aug 8, 11:01 am

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 6:55 AM · Aug 8, 2023

"God, loving Ukraine, punishes it. And Russians are God's instrument".

Graduates of the FSB {Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation} academy are always ready to find an explanation and justification for the most heinous atrocities of their Kremlin curators.

Violence is the main staple of the Russian autocracy.

0:33 ( )

Patriarch Kirill worked for the KGB in the 1970s, Swiss media reports
Euronews with AFP | 06/02/2023

aug 8, 11:08 am

Financelot @FinanceLancelot | 10:43 PM · Aug 7, 2023:
From the Great White North {aka Canada?}

Most of Africa is a no fly zone right now.
Is that where global superpowers have decided to fight WW3 as a proxy war?

Map w ( )


Not quite as stark as no-fly zone when margd checked:,10.58/4

Redigerat: aug 8, 11:37 am

>75 margd:

That's a ludicrous headline. Sudan and Niger are probably the only two of the fifty four African nations to have formally closed their airspace. Not sure about Libya. There are far fewer international flights in Africa than in Europe or north America, so it's hardly surprising that a snapshot might be taken at a point when there are very few aircraft flying. To take as an example South Sudan, which appears on the map as having no flights, there are daily international passenger flights from Kenya, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Uganda, Dubai and Egypt (but no longer from Sudan due to the current conflict there), plus cargo flights, and every day there are literally dozens of local commercial flights, aid agency charters, and UN flights.

aug 8, 5:02 pm

I thought it was France that was buying Niger's uranium?

Anton Gerashchenko | @Gerashchenko_en | 2:14 PM · Aug 8, 2023

"Putin's battalions" give political advice to Niger.

1:00 ( )

aug 10, 7:14 am

Corruption in warehouse storing Russian military supplies?

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 7:37 AM · Aug 9, 2023:

Russian media report that the general director of PIRO-ROSS plant, Sergei Chankaev (where the explosion allegedly happened), has been detained and is being brought for interrogation.

Reportedly, director of the company hired illegal migrants for his enterprise. The owner of the pyrofirm allegedly claims that the explosion occurred in a neighboring workshop, not in the warehouse where he stored his pyrotechnics.

Does this mean that a Russian strategic military plant was renting out its premises for commerce and illegals were working there?

I'm not surprised.

Photo ( )

aug 11, 2:29 am

Ukrainian soldier who lost his leg says he wouldn't volunteer again, voicing a rare but spreading pessimism (Business Insider)

A Ukrainian soldier who lost his leg in battle told The Washington Post that he wouldn't volunteer to fight for his country again — expressing a rare but growing pessimism around the war... Other people who spoke with The Washington Post also deviated from the prevailing Ukrainian sentiment of unity and defiance, citing the disappointing counteroffensive as a cause of their fading hopes.

aug 13, 9:23 am

Sex lives in focus for Ukraine's injured veterans (BBC)

ReSex: a charity that tries to help former soldiers with their sex lives, after suffering physical and mental trauma... they first had the idea for the project back in 2018, after reading about the issue for US soldiers. After securing funding with the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, they spoke to Ukrainian soldiers and experts, to ensure they were tailoring their help specifically to the men and women who need it. They faced some confusion from the public - and veterans - when they first asked for responses to questions online. "People are dying, you're thinking about sex!" Ivona says. They also had to confront some of their own preconceptions - like the false assumption that injured veterans would all be struggling with their sex lives. "There's sex in the hospital, sex at home, sex before procedures, sex after. There's a lot of good sex going on," Ivona says. "We were like, wow, OK, how can we be helpful here?". But overall, she says, the response has been overwhelmingly positive...

aug 14, 4:39 am

British Army adapts training using lessons from Ukraine (UK Defence Journal)

“This exercise was about reinforcing the ability to war fight from the lowest level, drawing from the lessons emerging from Ukraine and our Battlegroup experience in Estonia. The core idea was to incorporate these lessons to maximise our lethality, efficacy, and self-protection. The insights from Ukraine have underlined that foundational skills remain vital. This exercise provided an invaluable opportunity to fortify these skills”...

aug 15, 10:41 am

Bribes and hiding at home: the Ukrainian men trying to avoid conscription (Guardian)

Some are spending life savings to stay out of the war... It is believed that tens of thousands of Ukrainian men have left the country illegally since the full-scale war with Russia started last February, many by paying bribes. On Friday, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, fired every regional military recruitment head in the country, citing endemic corruption in the apparatus... across Ukraine, there are reports of corrupt officials willing to take bribes from people eager to buy their way out of the draft... While the corruption scandal has made headlines, it hints at an even more troubling story for Ukraine as the country approaches the 18-month mark since Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion. In the first weeks after the invasion, hundreds of thousands of ordinary Ukrainians volunteered to serve at the front in an explosion of patriotism that helped keep the country independent and fight off the initial attack. More than a year later, however, many of those initial recruits are now dead, wounded or simply exhausted, and the army needs new recruits to fill the ranks. By now, most of those who want to fight have already signed up, leaving the military to recruit among a much more reluctant pool of men. Fathers of more than three children, people with disabilities and those working in strategically important jobs are exempt from the draft, but everyone else is expected to join up if called. Crews of mobilisation officers roam the streets and sometimes go door to door to hand out notices. Viral videos show officers bundling men into vans to deposit them at enlistment offices...

aug 16, 12:15 am

Wagner’s mercenaries swap Ukrainian trenches for natural resources in Africa (El Pais)

The head of the Russian paramilitary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has been meeting with representatives from Mali, the Central African Republic and Niger. The United States, meanwhile, is attempting to block the Wagner Group from profiting from African mines...

aug 20, 8:04 am

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 6:44 AM · Aug 20, 2023:

Hidden mobilization in Russia is ongoing. In this video workers from an AvtoVAZ factory in Tolyatti are being recruited. The official named some numbers for the "voluntary mobilization" plan. For the city of Tolyatti with the population of about 700,000 people, the plan is to recruit 2,000 men. This is about 1/200 of Russian population, which means that the total plan for hidden mobilization is to recruit about 400,000 soldiers.

If the case of Tolyatti is any indication, then the plan has only been about 13% complete - only 250 men out of the planned 2,000 have agreed to go to their death in Ukraine.

This means that the official on the video is right and a new wave of forced mobilization in Russia is inevitable: "If we don't fix the situation within a month, there will be a second wave of mobilization" - the plan for war recruitment into the Russian army was revealed at one of the factories in Tolyatti, Russia.

0:35 ( )

aug 20, 8:12 am

Putin Awaits Trump Reelection for 'Better Deal on Ukraine': Ex-Ambassador
Kaitlin Lewis | 8/18/23

..."Putin thinks he is winning; in his view, his army is successfully preventing the advancement of the Ukrainian counteroffensive and has a good enough hold over the territories conquered last year," {former US ambassador to Russia Michael} McFaul wrote on his Substack site Friday. "Why would he negotiate now?"

McFaul also noted that the Kremlin leader "believes that time is on his side, particularly when it comes to U.S. support for the war."

"Obviously, Putin is waiting for the outcome of the U.S. 2024 presidential election," he continued. "If {former President Donald} Trump is reelected, Putin has reason to believe that he could strike a much better deal on Ukraine. So why would he enter negotiations now?"

Trump, who has held a steady lead over his other 2024 GOP rivals ahead of the Republican primary election, has said that he would end the Russia-Ukraine war "in 24 hours" if reelected to office, although military analysts have dismissed his plan..."I would tell Zelensky, no more. You got to make a deal. I would tell Putin, if you don't make a deal, we're going to give him a lot. We're going to {give Ukraine} more than they ever got if we have to. I will have the deal done in one day. One day."...

margd: and Putin would pull out the pee tapes...

aug 20, 8:23 am

Interesting that it was a Chinese (Hong Kong) flagged ship that dared to make 2nd trip to Ukraine after Russia withdrew from grain deal. A cargo ship, too, not a bulk (grain) carrier? Wonder if China is making its feelings known on Black Sea navigation (though it interferes w shipping in S China Sea and Taiwan Straits?) Russia would hesitate to fire on Chinese ship?

Admiral James Stavridis, USN, Ret. @stavridisj | 10:38 AM · Aug 18, 2023:

1st ship through the Ukrainian safe transit corridor in the Black Sea. This is a real progress, although I’m sure that Capt. had white knuckles the whole way. Good job to the Ukrainians responding to Russian piracy in this important international waterway.

Cargo Ship Leaves Ukraine, Reaches Turkish Waters Despite Russian Blockade
Agence France-Presse | August 17, 2023

Hong Kong-flagged Joseph Schulte left Odesa on Wednesday — the first vessel to directly challenge Russia's new bid to seal Ukraine's Black Sea access...

...The Joseph Schulte's mission came days after the Russian navy fired warning shots and boarded a Turkish-owned but Palau-flagged vessel that was sailing to the Ukrainian river port of Izmail.

The Russian attack put immense pressure on NATO member Turkey to stiffen its officially neutral line in the war.

The Turkish presidency broke a four-day silence on Thursday by announcing that it had "warned" Moscow about the need to avoid further maritime escalations.

But the Turkish statement stressed that it was technically up to Palau — a Pacific archipelago often used as a "flag of convenience" by global shipping companies — to lodge a formal complaint.

...Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hopes to meet Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin this month for talks focused on the Black Sea...

aug 20, 9:26 am

Calling for “Give Peace a Chance” without a Strategy to Convince Putin To End His Invasion of Ukraine Is not Realism.
It is naivete.
Michael McFaul | Aug 18, 2023

...Putin – not Zelenskyy or Biden—is the central decision-maker regarding the end of this war. He could end it tomorrow. He could pull his forces out of Ukraine, declare victory, and tell his people that he preemptively stopped the planned NATO invasion of Russia in Ukraine and saved ethnic Russians in Ukraine from genocide. Of course, he won’t do that, but he could. And a good percentage of Russians would believe him. Or Putin could also announce his desire for a ceasefire tomorrow. No one inside Russia would oppose him from doing so. So instead of sketching scenarios about what Zelenskyy and Biden need to do, pundits should focus their proposals on Putin and how to compel him to negotiate. Saying “give peace a chance” without articulating a strategy to force or convince Putin to agree to peace is not realism. It is naivete.

aug 22, 12:30 am

Wagner making ‘Africa even more free’, says Prigozhin in first post-rebellion video (Guardian)

Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has posted his first video address since leading a short-lived rebellion in Russia, appearing in a clip – possibly shot in Africa – on Telegram channels affiliated with the Wagner group on Monday... He says the Wagner group is conducting reconnaissance and search activities, and “making Russia even greater on all continents, and Africa even more free”. He then says Wagner is recruiting people and the group “will fulfil the tasks that were set”...

Whereas many Africans would argue that Wagner is simply making Africa even more violent, and increasing the violence associated with the exploitation of its natural resources.

aug 22, 9:22 am

Elon Musk’s Shadow Rule
How the U.S. government came to rely on the tech billionaire—and is now struggling to rein him in.
Ronan Farrow | August 21, 2023

Mueller, She Wrote @MuellerSheWrote | 12:48 PM · Aug 21, 2023:

NEW: THREAD: Ronan Farrow’s expose on Musk is out. It’s a MUST READ. Here are some stand-out moments.

Musk deliberately throttled Starlink - the communications system Ukraine was relying on in battle. He held it hostage for $400M at critical points in the war. 1/
Screen shots

Musk had spoken to Putin before this decision, and right around that time, he came up with his “peace plan”, which is essentially the same as Russia and trump’s: give Russia chunks of Ukraine. 2/
Screen shot ( )

His pro-Putin stance aligns with his goals in China: keep China happy because that’s where he makes Teslas. Beijing disapproved of Musk helping Ukraine because they lend support to Russia. That explains Musk’s desire to hand Taiwan over to China. 3/
Screen shot ( )

aug 22, 10:21 am

Jose L. Jimenez et al. 2023. What were the historical reasons for the resistance to recognizing airborne transmission during the COVID-19 pandemic? (REVIEW
Open Access) Indoor Air, First published: 21 August 2022

The question of whether SARS-CoV-2 is mainly transmitted by droplets or aerosols has been highly controversial. We sought to explain this controversy through a historical analysis of transmission research in other diseases. For most of human history, the dominant paradigm was that many diseases were carried by the air, often over long distances and in a phantasmagorical way. This miasmatic paradigm was challenged in the mid to late 19th century with the rise of germ theory, and as diseases such as cholera, puerperal fever, and malaria were found to actually transmit in other ways. Motivated by his views on the importance of contact/droplet infection, and the resistance he encountered from the remaining influence of miasma theory, prominent public health official Charles Chapin in 1910 helped initiate a successful paradigm shift, deeming airborne transmission most unlikely. This new paradigm became dominant. However, the lack of understanding of aerosols led to systematic errors in the interpretation of research evidence on transmission pathways. For the next five decades, airborne transmission was considered of negligible or minor importance for all major respiratory diseases, until a demonstration of airborne transmission of tuberculosis (which had been mistakenly thought to be transmitted by droplets) in 1962. The contact/droplet paradigm remained dominant, and only a few diseases were widely accepted as airborne before COVID-19: those that were clearly transmitted to people not in the same room. The acceleration of interdisciplinary research inspired by the COVID-19 pandemic has shown that airborne transmission is a major mode of transmission for this disease, and is likely to be significant for many respiratory infectious diseases.

1/ What were the historical reasons for the resistance to recognizing airborne transmission during the COVID-19 pandemic?...

...140/ I wrote SHORTER thread explaining larger picture of REASONS FOR RESISTANCE AND DENIAL OF #COVIDisAirborne by WHO @CDCgov @sanidadgob & PH, governments, & corporations in general

TDLR: history set us up, but key: AIRBORNE IS INCONVENIENT TO POWER

- Prof. Jose-Luis Jimenez @jljcolorado | Aug 23, 2022
Dist. Prof. Chem. & CIRES, Univ. Colorado. #HighlyCited2022, Fellow AAAR & AGU. Aerosols, pollution...

aug 23, 8:33 am

Military intelligence: Russia sinking ferries in attempt to protect Crimean Bridge
Elsa Court and The Kyiv Independent news desk | August 22, 2023

...Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) ... said that Russian forces believe the submerged boats will provide a protective lane in the water in front of the bridge. One ferry has already been sunk and Russia plans to sink at least six in total, the HUR said.

Anne Applebaum (The Atlantic) @anneapplebaum
Very useful summary of the counteroffensive, and of the debate about it

Ukraine's offensive: is it failing?
And are the Pentagon's criticism's of its strategy fair?
Lawrence Freedman | Aug 23, 2023

...The situation with Russia is not at all comparable to 1945. It is not facing an existential challenge – just a fiasco with a supposedly limited operation that went badly wrong. Ukraine is not going to march on Moscow to demand surrender. There are no demands for Russian territory to be handed over, or at least not territory internationally recognised as Russian. If Putin had not raised the stakes by claiming so much of Ukraine for Russia then it might not have been too hard to walk away. The cumulative effect of his disastrous policies has been to turn this special military operation into a struggle for the future of his regime and his concept of the Russian state.

At some point Moscow may decide that it must seek a route out of this morass but we can only guess what it will take to get this decision and when it might occur. We do not know enough about the interaction between the various external pressures on Russia and the internal decision-making. Only on occasion do we get glimpses of the tensions within the elite, of which the Wagner mutiny was the most extreme example. As Ukraine and its Western allies cannot force a decision on Moscow, all that can be done is keep up the pressure and accept that this may have to be done for months, even years. This is not because the war definitely will go on this long but because it might, and because Putin is more likely to seek a way out if he recognises that time is not on his side. This pressure can take a number of forms - at sea, in drone strikes against targets in Russia, attacking supply lines into Crimea, keeping up the pressure on its economy, demonstrating that Ukraine is not too far away from membership of the EU and NATO.

This is why the decision to send F-16s to Ukraine is important. It will certainly not help with the current offensive as it is unlikely that they will be flying much before next summer. But for that very reason they signal understanding of the potential length of this war. That is also why it is essential to step up production of ammunition and other war material. If it is likely that fighting will continue well into the next year then that should be reflected in Ukrainian strategy. Grumbles about slow progress should not lead to pressure to push harder than is feasible or prudent during the current offensive. The aim should be to get in as good a position as possible for the coming stages of the war and also to think about how best to sustain and develop capabilities for these stages. Whether Ukrainian forces do well or badly in the coming months it will still be essential to think long-term.

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 5:05 AM · Aug 23, 2023:
Russian media report explosions in Crimea this morning.

No official information yet. Advisor to Mariupol mayor writes that a Missile anti-ship Bastion system "Bastion" was hit. It is one of the carriers of Onyx missiles, which the Russians use for strikes on Ukraine.

There have also been reports about damage to the radar station on Cape Tarkhankut.
Photo ( )

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 6:32 AM · Aug 23, 2023:
Ukrainian @DI_Ukraine confirms that a Russian S-400 complex and missiles installed on it was destroyed in occupied Ukrainian Crimea today at Cape Tarkhankut near Olenivka village.

Main Intelligence Directorate adds: "Given the limited number of such complexes in the enemy's arsenal, this is a painful blow to the air defense system of the occupiers, which will have a serious impact on further events in the occupied Crimea."...

0:24 ( )

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 1:32 AM · Aug 23, 2023:
Russian media report another drone attack on Moscow last night.

One of the drones reportedly hit the building of Moskva-city. According to Russian authorities, it was "suppressed by electronic warfare means" and "lost control".
0:10 ( )

Defense of Ukraine @DefenceU | 6:07 AM · Aug 23, 2023:

A school building was completely destroyed in the city of Romny, Sumy region, as a result of an attack by Shahed 133/131 drones on the morning of August 23rd. russian terrorists killed two teachers, and at least three more were injured. Rescue operations are ongoing, with people still trapped under the rubble.


Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 | 12:28 PM · Aug 20, 2023:
On July 17, 2014, Russia murdered 196 Dutch citizens when shooting down Malaysia Airlines MH17 over Eastern Ukraine.

Today, Zelensky announced that the Netherlands is donating 42 F-16 fighters jets to Ukraine.

From UNITED24media
0:24 ( )

Real Peter Gleick💧 @PeterGleick | 2:25 PM · Aug 22, 2023:

New images showing the flood of sediments and pollutants, and the subsequent algal bloom in the Black Sea, following the destruction of Kakhovka dam and reservoir, from our new peer-reviewed journal article:

Figure 8 from new our Water International article on the destruction of Kakhovka dam, showing massive inflow of sediments and pollutants into the northwestern part of the Black Sea near Odesa, including the algal bloom caused by nitrogen and phosphorus pollution: satellite images taken between June 9th and June 23, 2023.

DW News @dwnews | 9:19 AM · Aug 20, 2023:

Although they live in exile, some Russian deserters remain trapped. As their asylum claims get rejected, they fear deportation and being forced to fight in Ukraine.

1:30 ( )

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 7:37 AM · Aug 23, 2023:

Several Russian Telegram channels write that the crew of a Russian Mi-8 helicopter got lost due to some "reasons" and crossed the Russia-Ukraine border. Attempts to restore orientation yielded no results. Having seen an airfield from air, Russian pilots landed on it.

Turns out, the airfield was in Ukraine.

There is currently no official information about the incident.
Photo ( )
Text Ru? ( )

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 8:09 AM · Aug 23, 2023:

⚡️⚡️Work with the crew is in progress. Everything is fine. There will be news - Ukrainian Intelligence confirms the information about a Russian helicopter landing in Ukraine (see my previous post for details).

It was a special operation by @DI_Ukraine that lasted more than six months. The Mi-8 helicopter landed in Kharkiv region. Two crew members were on board with the pilot who didn't know whete the helicopter was headed.

The pilot remained in Ukraine, his family was brought here ahead of him. They are all currently in Ukraine.

Some more details of the special operation:
◾️The helicopter was carrying out a flight between two airbases and transported spare parts for Su-27 and Su-30 aircraft.
◾️The Mi-8 helicopter remained in Ukraine and the spare parts for the aircraft as well.
Photo ( )

aug 23, 2:01 pm

Wagner Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin dies in plane crash.

aug 23, 3:21 pm

>92 lriley:

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin presumed dead after Russia plane crash (BBC)

Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin was on the passenger list of a jet which crashed killing all on board, Russia's civil aviation authority has said. Earlier, Wagner-linked Telegram channel Grey Zone reported that the private plane, which belonged to Prigozhin, was shot down by air defences. It was flying from Moscow to St Petersburg, with seven passengers and three crew... several Russia watchers have described him as a "dead man walking" since the mutiny...


Redigerat: aug 24, 11:58 am

Ukraine updates: Kyiv 'conducts special operation in Crimea'
DW | 24 Aug 2023

Ukrainian service personnel landed in Russian-occupied Crimea overnight, causing losses to Russian troops stationed there and raising the Ukrainian flag on the territory, Ukraine's navy and military intelligence, GUR, said on Thursday...coincided with Ukraine's Independence Day...

Ukrainian Special Ops Raid Occupied Crimea on Independence Day
Kyiv Post | August 24, 2023

Ukrainian military intelligence claims that a raid conducted in the Russian-occupied Crimea with boats and aviation was successful. No Ukrainian casualties were reported...

aug 25, 10:25 am

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 9:36 AM · Aug 25, 2023:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford. Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org . Author: “Russia in Africa” & “Putins War on Ukraine”

Yevgeny Prigozhin's death has serious repercussions for Wagner's Africa network
Here is what might unfold /1

The Wagner Group is very unlikely to withdraw from its core theatres of operation
Instead, the Russian state is likely to place Wagner's operations under the Russian Defence Ministry's control as a short-term fix /2

In Libya, that process is already underway
Prigozhin and {Field Marshal Khalifa Belqasim Haftar, a Libyan politician, military officer, and the commander of the Tobruk -based Libyan National Army (LNA)} were already in conflict
Prigozhin was suspicious of Haftar's links to France while Haftar was frustrated by his aggressive demands for $200 million in cash and feared a Wagner mutiny against him in Benghazi /3

Haftar's meeting with Russian Defence Minister Yevkurov, an arch-enemy of Prigozhin, in tandem with the Wagner chief's death illustrates this
Russia has long-term strategic interests in Libya ranging from Mediterranean port access to oil control that it will nationalize /4

A similar process will likely occur in Central African Republic
Putin asked {Pres. Faustin-Archange Touadéra} to distance himself from Prioghzin, and Touadera did not photograph himself with the Wagner chief at the Russia-Africa Summit
Russia and CAR have a direct defence deal /5

Sudan will be a bit more complicated
Prigozhin's relationship with {Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, a Janjaweed leader from the Rizeigat tribe in Darfur, who was the Deputy head of the Transitional Military Council following the 2019 Sudanese coup d'état, took part in the 2021 Sudan coup d'état, but has since distanced himself from it} was not entirely state-sanctioned and the loss of Chekalov, who managed Wagner's finances, could disrupt sanctions-busting
But still achievable, as Medvedev supervised Prigozhin on gold deals /6

In Mali, Wagner operations could actually get a boost
They were starved of heavy artillery since August/September 2022, as scarce resources were diverted to Ukraine
Now as JNIM {JNIM, al-Qaeda's affiliate in Mali and West Africa, responsible for numerous attacks against both Westerners and regional security forces since its formation in March 2017} advances further, they could get new war materiel /7

In the long-run, we should watch for another PMC {Wagner Group, officially PMC Wagner} like phase itself at least in part into Russia's Africa operations
But for now a largely nationalised, state-controlled Wagner should stay afloat /END

aug 26, 12:15 am

Wagner in Africa: Precarious future after Prigozhin's reported death (Chatham House, writing on BBC)

His Wagner group of mercenaries was "making Russia even greater on every continent - and Africa even more free". "Justice and happiness for the African nations," he declared... But for many African governments, Prigozhin's announced death is a relief... his operatives did not spread freedom, and foreign mercenaries are an embarrassment for many states - Prigozhin was a reminder of a painful past. At the height of the Cold War, and especially shortly after independence on the continent, mercenaries were regularly used to influence the civil wars and violence that followed. Col Callan in Angola; Bob Denard in Congo's Katanga and later the Comoros; "Mad" Mike Hoare in Katanga and later the Seychelles; American Robert Mackenzie in Sierra Leone and British Simon Mann's failed "organised regime change" mission in Equatorial Guinea in 2004: all these are uncomfortable history... Russian African analysts in Moscow... reminded me that for them he was less of the above, but more akin to the British imperialist Cecil Rhodes, who was out to make a fortune, and that I should not be judgmental, given the UK's history. Prigozhin's Wagner footprint in Africa was built on blood and treasure - contracts giving access to valuable resources were made in payment for military support... Pan-African dismay about mercenaries began as soon as they became active in the decolonisation conflicts of the 1960s. In 1977, the African Convention on Mercenarism was signed in Libreville and took effect in April 1985. In February 2022, the African Union's commissioner for political affairs, peace and security, Bankole Adeoye, called for the "complete exclusion of mercenaries from the African continent". These conventions may be ineffective, but an increasing number of African governments do not want a repeat of the use of foreign mercenaries on African soil to pursue geopolitical rivalries of external powers that occurred during the Cold War... African-led and designed security initiatives are an explicit rejection of mercenaries. But for those military governments in the region, in Mali, Burkina Faso and now Niger, the Russian operatives may be an attractive alternative... This is the moment for African leaders to truly implement African solutions to African problems, by implementing its conventions and building up institutions and credible, accountable security forces.

In short, mercenaries are welcomed by African military dictatorships trying to shore up their unrepresentative and unpopular autocratic regimes, but not by the majority of African governments nor people. For Russia, China and the west they represent an attractive way of continuing to unfairly exploit Africa's natural resources without the bother of having to enter into fair trade agreements which benefit African nations and their people. As the article says, it is basically just a modern neocolonial continuation of the colonial exploitation which began with European powers and has now extended to include Russia, China and the USA.

aug 27, 10:32 am

Pope Francis encourages young Russian Catholics to be ‘bridge builders’ (Catholic News Agency)

Young Russian Catholics attending a faith-sharing event in St. Petersburg had a special experience Friday: an interactive video exchange with Pope Francis, who urged them to be peacemakers and “bridge builders” with the courage to “replace fears with dreams”... Without referring directly to Russia’s war in Ukraine, the Holy Father called on the youth to pursue peace “in the midst of so many conflicts” happening around the world. “Dear young people, I do not want to preach a long sermon. I invite you to be bridge builders. Builders of bridges between generations, recognizing the dreams of those who have gone before you on the journey”... "I wish you, young Russians, the vocation to be artisans of peace in the midst of so many conflicts, in the midst of so many polarizations on all sides, which plague our world,” he continued. “I invite you to be sowers, to sow seeds of reconciliation,” he said, “little seeds that in this winter of war will not sprout for the moment in the frozen ground, but which in a future spring will blossom”...

aug 28, 12:01 am

Russia uses social media channels to exploit Niger coup (Guardian)

Social media channels associated with the Russian state have launched a major effort to exploit last month’s military coup in Niger, seeking to reinforce Moscow’s influence in the country and possibly open opportunities for intervention... Content about Niger across 45 Russian Telegram channels affiliated with the Russian state or Wagner increased by 6,645% in the month after the coup, suggesting a keen interest in Moscow in exploiting the upheaval... The research will reinforce fears that Russia will seek to win influence, lucrative contracts and access to key resources in Niger after the overthrow of Bazoum...

Redigerat: aug 29, 7:07 am

>97 John5918: contd.

Vatican defends pope's praise of 'great' Russian empire after fury in Ukraine
"Don’t forget your heritage," Pope Francis urged an audience of young Russian Catholics on Friday, in comments that sparked anger in Kyiv and delight from the Kremlin.
Patrick Smith | 29 Aug 2023

Screenshot, WSJ:

aug 30, 12:19 am

Russia plundering Ukraine's natural resources (DW)

Ukraine is known as one of Europe's largest grain producers. But it also has valuable natural resources such as iron ore and coal that Russia is eager to exploit...

Redigerat: aug 30, 7:03 am

>100 John5918: That seems par for the course for most invading armies once they've occupied territory. A big reason for us to be in Afghanistan and Iraq was to grab as much oil and natural gas as we could.....also to reward any number of multinational corporations with humongous contracts for whatever. Getting past Liz Cheney and her anti-Trump work on the Jan. 6 committee her father Dick and George W. should have had a lot to answer for but Barack decided no and then he let the Iraq thing run on for a bunch of years and never really let go in Afghanistan. Republican outrage at Biden pulling out of Afghanistan when he just followed the plan already set in place by his predecessor the man with now 4 criminal indictments. Whether the criminal defendant would have followed through is another question. At best he was always mercurial. Like it or not Biden pulling out of there was to my mind a feather in his cap and he's taken a bit of heat for it but other than gas and oil we had no real objectives and we were never going to win in the next thousand years.

Speaking of which the Russians have destroyed so much of the territory they have occupied to pretty much make it worthless for them apart from stealing what they can. They don't have the resources to rebuild and they certainly don't have a coherent agenda for the population that's still there. At the point they're at it's all pride and revenge.

aug 30, 9:45 am

>99 margd: contd. Wonder what Our Lady of Fatima said / would say about Russia?

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 9:29 AM · Aug 30, 2023:
BREAKING: Lithuania summons Vatican envoy over Pope Francis's Russian Empire praise

The Vatican has pushed back by claiming that Pope Francis did not condone Russian imperialism to youths, in spite of his praise of Peter and Catherine the Great

But this scuffle deals yet another blow to the Vatican's already dubious arbitration ambitions in Ukraine

aug 30, 10:22 am

Samuel Ramani (Oxford U) @SamRamani2 |9:16 AM · Aug 30, 2023

Russia is already fanning the flames of anti-colonialism in Gabon
The Wagner aligned Grey Zone Telegram channel showcased a quote from Prigozhin-funded spin doctor Kemi Seba, which called it a victory for Pan-Africanism
Seba says Gabon will follow Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger

Full post here:

aug 30, 10:29 am

Ukrainian drones attack six Russian regions and hit military planes
Kyiv says four cargo planes destroyed in city 500 miles from border with Ukraine
Pjotr Sauer and Helen Sullivan | Wed 30 Aug 2023

...Pskov is about 500 miles (800km) from Ukraine’s border, and the surrounding region borders the EU member states of Latvia and Estonia.

Russian media reported that a barrage of drones flew at the city, targeting the local airport used by civilian and military planes.

Footage and images posted on social media overnight showed smoke billowing over the city and the regional governor, Mikhail Vedernikov, ordered all flights to and from Pskov airport to be cancelled on Wednesday.

The strike on Pskov was part of a wave of reported drone attacks in the early hours of Wednesday, with the Russian defence ministry reporting that drones were also shot down over the regions of Oryol, Bryansk, Ryazan, Kaluga and Moscow.

Pskov appeared to be the only region where the drones caused damage...

aug 31, 3:42 am

Then again, who could have predicted Prigozhin match on Russia?

How stable is Russia after the Wagner rebellion?
Miodrag Soric | 31 Aug 2023

The Wagner Group's mutiny ended abruptly, and now its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is dead. But recent events have left their mark. How firm is Putin's grip on authority? Is Russia, a nuclear power, on the brink of chaos?

...Some Western experts speculate that the Kremlin itself could be spreading the narrative that Russia is teetering on the brink of chaos. Were this to be the case, they suggest, the aim would be to weaken the West's support for Ukraine — the idea being that the West could accept Ukraine being forced to give up territory but not Russian nuclear missiles going AWOL.

...Stefan Meister of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) thinks ... that Putin's system is actually demonstrating strength — including with the death of Prigozhin. He doesn't believe that oligarchs, society, the military or the people who surround Putin and depend on him could call his power into question. Only the intelligence services or the security apparatus might one day be able to do that, he says.

According to Meister, minor military defeats in Ukraine do not put Putin's power at risk. The only thing that might make a difference, he says, would be if Ukraine succeeded in taking back Crimea, for example, and all its territories currently occupied by Russia.

sep 1, 12:00 am

Wagner Group: what Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death means for stability in Africa (The Conversation)

The death of the Wagner Group’s charismatic leader, a former close ally of Putin, raises questions about these African operations. Based on credible news reports, these include activities in: Equatorial Guinea, Libya, Central African Republic (CAR), Chad, Mali, Burkina Faso, Sudan, Mozambique and Madagascar. The group reportedly has more than 5,000 operatives across its Africa operations. A common denominator among these countries is the presence of insurgencies or civil wars, abundant natural resources, corrupt leadership, and unconstitutional governance, among other factors. Many of these states, such as Libya, Sudan, and Mozambique, have many of the characteristics of “failing” or “failed states”... Described by South Africa-based think tank In On Africa as “more than mere mercenaries”, the Wagner Group has also discreetly but effectively put stress on Afro-European relations while bolstering autocratic governments...

sep 1, 9:27 am

Ukraine war: Drone attack on Pskov airbase from inside Russia - Kyiv
Robert Greenall | 1 Sept 2023

The drone attack on an airbase in the Russian city of Pskov on Tuesday was launched from inside Russia, Ukraine's military intelligence chief has said....

...The {4} damaged aircraft are long-range cargo planes, ideal for transporting troops and equipment over long distances and therefore valuable war assets for Russia.

...Meanwhile drone attacks on several locations in Russia continued overnight Thursday to Friday...

sep 2, 12:02 am

Ukraine war: Putin influencers profiting from war propaganda (BBC)

Russia's pro-war influencers are generating big advertising revenues from their social media coverage of the conflict, the BBC has found. Alongside a daily ration of gruesome videos of drone strikes and false claims about Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, they share ads for anything from cryptocurrency to fashion. Known in Russia as "Z-Bloggers" because of their support for a war often symbolised by the letter Z, they are often embedded with the Russian army and post footage from the front line where they call on young Russians to enlist. Since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, pro-war influencers have gained millions of followers on Telegram, the social media platform many Russians turned to after President Vladimir Putin banned Instagram, Facebook and Twitter. That explosion in users has led to a surge in Telegram's advertising market. War influencers have taken advantage of this. They sell ad spaces for companies looking to reach their young audiences...

sep 2, 4:08 pm

The Washington Post @washingtonpost | 11:31 AM · Sep 1, 2023:

Twitter under Elon Musk's ownership has played a major role in allowing Russian propaganda about Ukraine to reach more people than before the war began, according to a year-long study released this week by the European Commission.
Musk’s new Twitter policies helped spread Russian propaganda, EU says
A study commissioned by the European Commission found that “the reach and influence of Kremlin-backed accounts has grown further in the first half of 2023, driven in particular by the dismantling of...

sep 3, 12:04 am

Threats, insults, and Kremlin 'robots': How Russian diplomacy died under Putin (BBC)

Russia's diplomats were once a key part of President Putin's foreign policy strategy. But that has all changed. In the years leading up to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, diplomats lost their authority, their role reduced to echoing the Kremlin's aggressive rhetoric...

Redigerat: sep 3, 5:44 am

Wikipedia (Federal subjects of Russia): "According to the Russian Constitution, the Russian Federation consists of republics, krais, oblasts, cities of federal importance, an autonomous oblast, and autonomous okrugs, all of which are equal subjects of the Russian Federation. Three Russian cities of federal importance (Moscow, Saint Petersburg, and Sevastopol) have a status of both city and separate federal subject which comprises other cities and towns (Zelenograd, Troitsk, Kronstadt, Kolpino, etc.) within each federal city—keeping older structures of postal addresses. In 1993, the Russian Federation comprised 89 federal subjects. By 2008, the number of federal subjects had decreased to 83 because of several mergers. In 2014, after being annexed from Ukraine, the Russian government claimed Sevastopol and the Republic of Crimea to be the 84th and 85th federal subjects of Russia, a move that is not recognized internationally. During the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, four Ukrainian oblasts were annexed by Russia, though they remain internationally recognized as part of Ukraine and are only partially occupied by Russia."

Some think with central (Euro) Russian leadership absorbed with war in Ukraune, leadership in the outlying republics (etc.) are left to respond to people's discontent. Some speculate that the federation cannot hold. China is interested in water and ports in the East. Via Geraschenko, below is an article by Vladimir Dovdanov {a Kalmyk political activist considered a foreign agent by Russia}, Deputy Chairman of the Congress of the Oirat-Kalmyk People, member of the Free Nations League, "On the independence of the captive peoples and liquidation of the Russian Federation "

In another Gerashchenko tweet, video (2:28) of ~40 Buryatiya men battling Russian authorities over illegal jade trade w China gives impression of the poverty and desperation: (Bet the "legal trade" is controlled by oligarch?)

Some attacks on Russia originate from within Russia?

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 11:53 AM · Sep 1, 2023:

Vladimir Dovdanov, Deputy Chairman of the Oirat-Kalmyk People’s Congress, member of the League of Free Nations, in his article entitled "On the independence of the enslaved peoples and the liquidation of the Russian Federation" writes:

“The aggression and criminal war of the Russian Federation (aka the Russian Empire) in Ukraine, the destruction of cities and villages, the occupation of Ukrainian territories, the genocide of the Ukrainian people and the increasing threats to the West, including nuclear weapons, put on the agenda not only the complete victory of Ukraine on the battlefield and the liberation of its territories, but also the liquidation of the Russian imperial state, as well as the granting of independence to all peoples enslaved by the empire.”... *
Map Russia ( )

* On the independence of the captive peoples and liquidation of the Russian Federation
Vladimir Dovdanov
Deputy Chairman of the Congress of the Oirat-Kalmyk People, member of the Free Nations League
23.08.2023, 12:05

An interview with Vladimir Dovdanov by Katerina Krasovska
May 26, 2023

Today, captive peoples do understand that peaceful protests alone cannot change the existing system in the empire and that the armed resistance is the only effective method

...We need to prepare (for uprising), which is what we are doing. Like other captive nations in Russia, such as the Buryats, Sakha-Yakuts, Ingush, Chechens, Dagestan peoples, Circassians and other peoples who aim to develop their own armed forces and train them in Ukraine and the West. And, without a doubt, they would take part in liberating Ukraine, and then, in their own republics and regions. This is what we are doing at the moment...

sep 3, 5:53 am

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 5:08 AM · Sep 3, 2023:

Russian media report that an oil depot is on fire in St Petersburg.
Witnesses said they heard explosions.

0:18 ( )

Text ( )

Redigerat: sep 4, 2:51 pm

Anton Geraschhenko: The meeting of Putin and Erdogan. Body language says a lot.
margd: Note how long Putin holds on to Erdogan's hand!

0:16 ( )

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 12:52 PM · Sep 4, 2023:

Putin and Erdogan's grain deal discussions predictably failed
Turkish media was hopeful that the UN had partially satisfied Russia's demands and Putin wanted more clear backing of his 1 million ton Russia-Turkey-Qatar export plan
None of this resulted in a breakthrough

Redigerat: sep 4, 7:48 am

Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof | 6:15 PM · Sep 3, 2023:
Chief Foreign-Affairs Correspondent of The Wall Street Journal.

Guess Ukraine would be the first country in the world with a Jewish president and a Muslim defense minister.

Ukraine’s Zelensky Appoints Crimean Tatar Executive as New Defense Minister
Yaroslav Trofimov | Sept. 3, 2023 6:01 pm ET
Rustem Umerov to take over as Zelensky removes former defense minister Reznikov amid graft controversies...

Blue Bagger 🇺🇦 🇦🇺 @bagger_blue:
A Crimean Tartar defence minister when Ukrainians take back Crimea - poetic

hrobak67NafoFella @hrobak67:
I would like to see any Western politician try persuading a 🇺🇦 Crimean Tatar MoD to accept "peace" by giving away Crimea. It's a no go attempt! Chosing Umerov seems like a genius move vs. Western appeasers.

sep 7, 2:07 pm

Musk Secretly Used Starlink to Foil Ukrainian Drone Attack on Russian Ships: Report

sep 7, 4:51 pm

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:45 PM · Sep 7, 2023:

Russian media report that the largest microelectronics factory in Russia is on fire.
Kremniy El in Bryansk is the main producer of microelectronics used in military equipment.

0:23 ( )

sep 8, 1:51 am

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 1:36 AM · Sep 8, 2023:

Russian media report that the premises of Federal Customs Service in Moscow were on fire last night - over 1,000 sq meters.

0:44 ( )

sep 10, 9:23 am

Defense of Ukraine @DefenceU | 9:17 AM · Sep 10, 2023:

Forgive them, Lord, because we can’t.
Photo church image shot up ( )

sep 10, 11:09 am

Clash Report @clashreport | 3:30 AM · Sep 10, 2023:
Breaking news, reports, and opinions from ongoing clashes of the world.
English | Türkçe | Français | عربي

Russia’s new solution against kamikaze UAV strikes on air bases.

Redigerat: sep 13, 12:10 am

My nation didn’t learn lesson of war, says Russian who finds bodies of Soviet soldiers (Guardian)

Konstantin Dobrovolski, who has spent decades finding and reburying those killed in WW2, says Ukraine invasion was ‘madness’... When Russia invaded Ukraine, Putin tapped into the memory, language and imagery of the past war to justify the attack, telling his nation that men were “fighting for the same thing as their fathers and grandfathers” and framing Ukraine as a successor to Nazi Germany. “Absolute nonsense,” said Dobrovolski when asked about the parallel between the two conflicts. “These two wars are completely different. Our fathers and grandfathers were heroically defending our country, not invading another one. Our borders were drawn in 1991. What the hell are we doing in Ukraine? It’s madness and it needs to stop”... “I look around and see all these bodies and then see these pseudo-patriots screaming that no one is left behind. They should spend a day with me here in the field and look at these forgotten soldiers,” Dobrovolski said. “How can they talk about patriotism when we haven’t even buried our defenders properly?”... In a country where even the slightest dissent is criminalised, Dobrovolski is a rare voice that pushes against the state narrative tying the two wars together...

sep 14, 8:01 am

Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 | 5:06 AM · Sep 14, 2023
Aggregating and curating news, politics, current affairs, history and culture from Central and Eastern Europe.

The Ukrainian Army has destroyed a Russian S-400 air defense system in Yevpatoriya, Crimea worth USD 1.2 billion.
First suicide drones hit the radars and then 2 Neptun cruise missiles took care of the rest.
Photos S-400? ( )

Adam Kinzinger (Slava Ukraini) 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @AdamKinzinger | 6:02 AM · Sep 14, 2023:
{former pilot, R congressman on J6 committee}

WOW. This is huge. If I was a country that bought an S-400 I’d be panicked. If i was a Russian in Crimea, I’d be panicked.

(((Tendar))) @Tendar | 2:46 AM · Sep 13, 2023
Tyrants are my enemies | Si vis pacem para bellum |🇩🇪🇪🇺| Das Böse triumphiert allein dadurch, dass gute Menschen nichts unternehmen |Military & History

According to Russian media sources the Ropucha Class Landing Ship "Minsk" and the "Rostov-on-Don", a Kilo Class submarine, were damaged. They were undergoing repairs in the shipyards of Sevastopol.
The Ukrainian strikes in the past weeks severely degraded Russian air defense capabilities on the occupied peninsula of Crimea.
Source: Telegram/shot_shot

Rostov-on-Don - Kilo Class Submarine Source: Wikipedia

Ropucha Class Landing Ship Source: Wikipedia

Ben Hodges @general_ben | 3:15 AM · Sep 13, 2023:
Former Commanding General USArmyEurope, NATO Senior Mentor for Logistics...

It’s almost like the Ukrainians planned it that way…a SOF raid to destroy radar, then a sophisticated strike on Sevastopol…
This counter-offensive is much more than a ground assault…it’s a multi-domain operation. UKR Gen Staff is running rings around the Russian Gen Staff.

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:08 PM · Sep 13, 2023:
Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Founder of the Institute of the Future. Official enemy of Russian propaganda

Why is Ukraine focused on striking Russian landing ships?

The ships are designed to save Russian logistics at the moment when the Ukrainian Defense Forces cut the railway line running through Tokmak. After that, the Russians plan to supply fuel to their army group in the occupied areas of Zaporizhzhia region (and in the southern part of Donetsk region) via occupied Mariupol, transferring fuel and heavy cargoes with the help of seacraft.

By the way, that's why the Russians are now working on restoring the railroad branch at the Mariupol port. If Ukraine is able to cut the artery running through Tokmak (it is already used very little due to the approaching frontline), and deprive the Russian Black Sea Fleet of transportation opportunities, this, in fact, creates a kind of A2AD zone (anti-access and area denial zone) for Russian logistics. And without fuel (and a regular supply of ammunition, medical supplies, equipment, etc.) it is quite difficult to fight, mildly speaking.

✒️: Yigal Levin
Photos ( )

Михайло Подоляк @Podolyak_M | 4:39 AM · Sep 14, 2023:
Mykhailo Podolyak. Adviser to the Head of the Office of President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy

The basic task of #Russia today is to organize an operational pause for 4-5 months (minimum), drastically reducing the intensity of hostilities, stopping #Ukraine's offensive operations and stopping shelling/destruction of its rear bases... The pause is necessary to re-equip the army, additional mobilization and training, organizing new logistics, deploying additional military production facilities, forming a "coalition of the war-weary" for internal pressure on societies in different countries. All resources are used for this purpose - informational, diplomatic, behind-the-scenes, lobbying...

However, any "pause in the interests of Russia" will in fact inevitably lead to further escalation. It is important to realize that only military defeats of Russia in the occupied territories will lead us to a realistic peace...

sep 14, 8:11 am

Euromaidan Press @EuromaidanPress | 7:29 AM · Sep 12, 2023:
News and views from Ukraine. We are independent & community-funded.

Russian incendiary munitions raining down in a forest near Luhansk's Kreminna

Video by the Ukrainian Army's 25th Brigade
0:21 ( )

Redigerat: sep 15, 1:32 pm

I'm not a great fan of these YouTube political analysis videos, but a friend sent me the link to this one and I found it interesting. Worth watching to the end, with an interesting bit from around 24:00 and especially 25:00.

Ukraine War History - Why it was a Predictable Bloodbath w/Jeffrey Sachs

Having said that, I recognise that both Sachs and Napolitano are controversial figures. Here is a counterview to Sachs' position. Like most conflicts it is a complex affair with many grey areas, and cannot be adequately summed up by the propagandists and jingos on either side. That Russia's invasion of Ukraine was both illegal and inhumane is a clear fact, but much of the background is still murky.

Edited to add: Another more balanced narrative can be found in The Nation: Was the Collapse of US-Russia Relations Inevitable?, subtitled "How US hubris and Russian paranoia undermined partnership".

sep 15, 3:21 pm

Tymofiy Mylovanov @Mylovanov | 1:14 PM · Sep 15, 2023:
President, Kyiv School of Economics; Adviser, Zelensky administration; Minister of economy, Ukraine, 2019-2020; Associate professor, University of Pittsburgh

Another successful attack on Russian Black fleet: reports @tweetsNV
Frankly, I am starting to lose track…
This time Ukraine's SBU used experimental naval drone "Sea Tadpole" to strike Russian missile ship Samum near Sevastopol 1/
Photo ( )

Drone hit rear right section, caused significant damage. Samum lost propulsion. Towed for repairs with stern tilt & right list. 2/

SBU sources: attack used experimental drone able to operate in storms & hide in high waves. Waves reached 1.5-2m during op. 3/

Also, on Sep 14 morning, Ukraine struck two Russian Vasily Bykov patrol ships in Black Sea, damaging both. Used naval drones. 4/

Day before, there were explosions occupied Sevastopol. Russia admitted strike on shipyard & damage to two ships "under repair".5/

Ukraine intelligence reported that large landing ship Minsk & submarine Rostov-on-Don hit. Both unsalvageable 6/

Since full invasion began, Ukraine destroyed 20 ships, boats & 1 submarine of aggressor country per General Staff, of which 5 - 25% - were done in the last two days. 7X

sep 16, 8:25 am

He aspired to fight for Putin after Prigozhin's demise, Kadyrov is "in a coma after his health suddenly deteriorated"
"Ramzan Akhmatovich Kadyrov is a Russian politician and current Head of the Chechen Republic. He was formerly affiliated to the Chechen independence movement, through his father who was the separatist-appointed mufti of Chechnya. He is a colonel general in the Russian military." (Wikipedia)

Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 | 12:12 PM · Sep 15, 2023:
Aggregating and curating news, politics, current affairs, history and culture from Central and Eastern Europe.

Incoming reports of Kadyrov being in a coma after his health suddenly deteriorated.
Ukraine's intelligence service GUR confirms the reports
Photo ( )

sep 16, 9:13 am

Samuel Ramani (Oxford U) @SamRamani2 | 8:16 AM · Sep 16, 2023:

BREAKING: Romania says it will consider shooting down Russian drones over its territory

General Gheorghita Vlad claimed that Romania would use all available means, including air defences, to resist drones and discuss with NATO radar system deployments
Vlad's comments build on Zelensky advisor Mykhailo Podolyak's recommendations
UA Pravda:

Romania has also broadened the horizon of the no fly zone for drones and aircraft by its borders from 8km to 20-30km
Another key deterrence measure as Russia continues to attack Danube port infrastructure
Kviv Post:

sep 19, 1:22 pm

Presidents of Ukraine & Kenya meet, discuss food, peace:

sep 20, 4:52 am

Isn't Putin's palatial dacha in Sochi? If he's there, couldn't miss all that smoke?

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:38 AM · Sep 20, 2023:

Russian media report a fire in Sochi at Rosneft's oil depot.
According to some Telegram channels, a kamikaze drone hit a diesel fuel tank near Sochi International Airport.

0:06 ( )

0:33 ( )
0:15 ( )
0:24 ( )

Redigerat: sep 21, 5:33 am

Konstantin Sonin @k_sonin | 5:02 PM · Sep 20, 2023:
Political economist, John Dewey Distinguished Service Professor, @HarrisPolicy at UChicago .
{Interesting discussion at}

This graph tells a lot. At the beginning of the transition 30 years ago, Russians were richer than people in all newly-market East and North European countries. Now, they are poorer, on average, than all of them. For two major reasons: first, the depth of the 1990s crisis, and, no less important, second, the failure to grow after 2009. Putin first failed economic development, then started a war.

Graph GDP per capita E & N Eur countries, 1990-2021

Redigerat: sep 22, 8:38 am

DW News @dwnews | 7:27 AM · Sep 22, 2023:

JUST IN: Russian-appointed officials say at least one Ukrainian missile struck the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea navy in the Crimean port of Sevastopol on Friday.

Samuel Ramani {Oxford} @SamRamani2 | 7:17 AM · Sep 22, 2023:

Mikhail Razvozhayev, the Russian proxy governor of Sevastopol warns that more strikes might be incoming
A significant show of intent from Ukraine, which seems disarming the Black Sea Fleet is a critical parallel objective to its core counter-offensive operations

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 6:43 AM · Sep 22, 2023
Russian media publish a video of the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet after the missile strike.
0:05 ( )

Photo ( )

Redigerat: sep 23, 5:16 am

>131 margd: contd.

Russia-Ukraine war live: strike on Russian Black Sea fleet HQ killed nine and injured senior officers, Ukraine claims
Guardian | 23/09/2023.

Kyiv intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov says a colonel general and lieutenant general are among injured but does not confirm reports of death of Black Sea fleet Admiral Viktor Sokolov

Samuel Ramani {Oxford U} @SamRamani2 | 6:57 PM · Sep 22, 2023:

Viktor Sokolov was reportedly killed
Sokolov became Black Sea Fleet commander in 2022 after Moskva sinking
He also operated the Admiral Kuznetsov in Syria and the Admiral Grigorovich, which allegedly struck ISIS in Syria with Kalibrs

A significant loss for the Russian Navy

sep 24, 11:05 am

First Navalny, now Kara-Murza...

Samuel Ramani (Oxford U) @SamRamani2 | 10:55 AM · Sep 24, 2023:
BREAKING: Russian dissident Vladimir Kara-Murza is transferred to a maximum security facility in Siberia

The prison transfer appeared to have taken less than 3 weeks from Moscow to Siberia

Kara-Murza is now located in Omsk and has already been convicted for treason. This is the speech that likely led to his arrest

Vladimir Kara-Murza, Russian politician, author, historian, and longtime colleague of opposition leader Boris Nemstov, delivering his speech in Congress

sep 24, 11:09 am

Samuel Ramani (Oxford U) @SamRamani2 | 10:52 AM · Sep 24, 2023:

BREAKING: A Ukrainian grain shipment has arrived in Turkey. The second major shipment since Russia tanked the grain deal.

Ukraine has devised a new route for shipments that evade the Black Sea ports that are being struck by Russian forces
This new route has seen 2 ships successfully pass in a week and 3 more cargo vessels have entered Ukrainian waters

sep 24, 11:18 am

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 10:35 AM · Sep 24, 2023:

Russian proxy in Zaporizhzhia Vladimir Rogov claims that Ukraine will pivot towards trying to take Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in a month's time
Rainy and cold weather plus a failed Ukrainian assault on Tokmak will lead to this
Classic projection as Russia continues mining ZNPP

The latest IAEA assessment on Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant suggests that Russia has cleared some heavy weapons but mines remain in place:

Mines remain on ZNPP premises
IAEA | 23.09.2023

sep 24, 11:57 am

War in Ukraine is revealing a new global order – and the ‘power south’ is the winner (Guardian)

Long-held resentments of the west are surfacing as world relations rebalance in favour of economic powerhouses like India and China...

Ukraine may be striking Wagner-backed militia in Sudan (CNN)

Ukraine's special services 'likely' behind strikes on Wagner-backed forces in Sudan, a Ukrainian military source says...

Military intelligence: Sudan strike on Wagner signals Russia's decreasing influence in Africa (Kyiv Independent)

Military intelligence spokesperson Andrii Yusov said in an interview with Radio NV on Sept. 20 that he cannot confirm nor deny Ukraine's role in a strike against Wagner-backed militia in Sudan. However, he said that the incident signals decreasing Russian influence in Africa and is a consequence of Moscow's criminal activities. "And Ukraine will punish, as we have already said, enemies and criminals all over the world," the official said. CNN reported on Sept. 19 that according to an unnamed Ukrainian military source, a "non-Sudanese military" was responsible for a military operation against Wagner-affiliated forces in Sudan, involving drone strikes and a ground operation. The source reportedly believed that Ukrainian special services were likely responsible for the attack. However, some officials consulted doubted the source's claim... {including} A top-ranking Sudanese military official {and} multiple U.S. officials...

sep 24, 1:56 pm

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 1:03 PM · Sep 24, 2023:

BREAKING: A new U.S. assessment shows no sharp reduction of Wagner forces in Africa

Crucially, the U.S. assessment also does not show clear signs that the Wagner Group in Africa has been placed under Russian state control

The Kremlin is still testing the waters in Africa to see the appetite for Russian state contracts. Yevkurov's trips haven't worked yet

The U.S. perspective is that Wagner is still trying to exploit the Niger coup but in my view, Russia will not risk a future conflict with ECOWAS {Economic Community of West African States} and further expansions for Wagner in this time of turmoil are unlikely

Wagner forces have not withdrawn from Africa in ‘meaningful’ numbers, defense official says
Natasha Bertrand | September 24, 2023

sep 25, 2:36 am

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:13 AM · Sep 25, 2023:

Instead of a thousand words.
Yet another massive Russian attack on Odesa with drones and missiles.
Grain warehouses and a hotel by the sea were destroyed (the hotel is on the photo). Thankfully, it was uninhabited.
Russian terror continues.

Photo hotel ( )

Defense of Ukraine @DefenceU | 2:27 AM · Sep 25, 2023

russian missiles struck a hotel in Odesa last night.
A pathetic attempt at retaliation for our successful hit on the russian Navy HQ in Sevastopol.

sep 25, 8:20 am

>137 margd: contd.

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 7:38 AM · Sep 25, 2023

The sky over Odesa last night as Ukrainian air defenders were battling with yet another massive Russian attack.
30 of the 33 targets were shot down.
The video shows amazing work of the 160th anti-aircraft missile brigade of "South" Odessa air command.
Glory to Ukrainian Heroes!

📹: "South" OC
0:33 ( )

sep 25, 10:53 am

>137 margd: >138 margd:

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 6:55 AM · Sep 25, 2023:

Commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet admiral Viktor Sokolov died in the missile strike on the Fleet's headquarters, along with 34 more officers. 105 more were wounded. The building is not suitable for restoration - Special Operations Forces of Ukraine.

Photo, Sokolov? ( )

sep 25, 11:53 pm

Trudeau calls praise for Nazi-linked veteran 'deeply embarrassing' (BBC)

An invitation to parliament for a Ukrainian man who fought for a Nazi unit in World War Two is "deeply embarrassing" to Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says. Yaroslav Hunka, 98, got a standing ovation after House of Commons Speaker Anthony Rota called him a "hero" during a Friday visit by Ukraine's president. Mr Rota has said he did not know of Mr Hunka's Nazi ties and made a mistake in inviting him to attend the event. He faces calls to resign...

Redigerat: okt 3, 3:39 am

>140 John5918: A screw-up for sure, and one that may cost Cdn Speaker his job. In his defense, Zelensky's invite to address Parliament was last minute (after US Speaker McCarthy snubbed him by not inviting him to address Congress), so little time to vet guests?

Lots of former Nazis here, though numbers are dwindling as years go by. More than a few POWs ended up settling in Canada. Others came after the war. A college room-mate's mum worked in uniform in a WW2 German munitions factory.

Speaker takes responsibility for inviting former Nazi soldier, but Conservatives say PMO (PM's Office) to blame
Ryan Tumilty | Sep 25, 2023

'What kind of message does that send to our allies ... that basic rudimentary vetting as to who might be in the galleries isn't done'..
ETA: resignation of Cdn speaker

Statement from the Hon. Anthony Rota,
Speaker of the House of Commons
Ottawa, Ontario – September 26, 2023

Marcus Kolga 🇺🇦 kolga | 11:50 AM · Sep 26, 2023:
🇨🇦🇪🇪Human rights, democracy, Magnitsky, fighting disinfo. CEE Council @mlinstitute
@upnorthmagazine @CDAInstitute #NAFOfella

The Russian MFA has published this 100% fabricated image of a stamp they claim is being sold by Ukrainian Post. All Canadians need to be very aware of how Russian propagandists will exploit this terrible situation.

Image ( )

sep 26, 4:46 pm

Press release: UN Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine finds continued systematic and widespread use of torture and indiscriminate attacks harming civilians
UN | 25 September 2023

Rape allegations
‘Widespread’ torture
Probe into child transfers a ‘priority’
Possible ‘incitement to genocide’
Call for accountability
No equivalence
More in-depth investigations
The Commission

Listen to Commission Chair Erik Møse on UN Radio (20:52)


Update by the Chair of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine, at the 54th session of the Human Rights Council
25 September 2023

sep 28, 3:57 pm

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:00 PM · Sep 28, 2023

Crimean Telegram channels post this photo, reportedly from Kerch in the area of the Crimean bridge.
Air raid siren sounded on the occupied peninsula.
Reportedly, the bridge has been closed for crossing until 6 a.m on Friday.

Photo ( )

sep 30, 12:26 am

South Sudan And Russia To Expand Energy Ties (Oil Price)

South Sudan and Russia agreed to expand energy cooperation, including in the oil sector, during a meeting of South Sudanese President Salva Kiir with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Moscow. South Sudan, an oil producer in Africa, has several foreign firms, including Russian ones, operating in its oil industry... Putin and Kiir also discussed regional security in light of the war in neighboring Sudan, and the South Sudanese president said, per the Kremlin release, “we need our own friends. You are one of them. We do not see any alternative besides you”...

Redigerat: sep 30, 12:42 pm

Meanwhile, in Syria...

The White Helmets @SyriaCivilDef | 11:23 AM · Sep 30, 2023:

Eight years have passed since the beginning of the Russian military intervention in #Syria on September 30, 2015. The intervention had far-reaching consequences, profoundly reshaping the political and humanitarian landscape, and causing immediate and long-term catastrophic consequences for the Syrian people with widespread displacement and loss of life. Russia's intervention in Syria not only escalated a humanitarian crisis, but also hindered the prospects for peace and the Syrian people's aspirations for a better tomorrow.


The White Helmets | @SyriaCivilDef | 12:28 PM · Sep 30, 2023:

Thousands of people in #Syria have been killed or injured by Russian attacks since Russia's military intervention 8 year ago. To this day, these attacks continue undeterred and without any justice and accountability.

Image attacks weapons used ( )

Redigerat: okt 2, 10:09 am

Conversations with Bill Kristol
Frederick W. Kagan* | September 29, 2023 (Episode 251) (1:10:37)

“The Russians have not shown the ability to stop the Ukrainians from making advances. This is important…It’s not stalemate.”

* Frederick W. Kagan is an American resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute ( a right wing libertarian think tank based in Washington, D.C., that researches government, politics, economics, and social welfare ) and a former professor of military history at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point.

Andrew Desiderio @AndrewDesiderio | 9:21 PM · Sep 30, 2023
Senior congressional reporter @PunchbowlNews , covering the Senate.

NEW: Here is the joint Senate leadership statement on Ukraine.
Text, short ( )

okt 1, 7:31 am

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 5:55 AM · Oct 1, 2023:

Russian social media published an eyewitness video of a drone attack on Smolensk, Russia. The video shows a drone flying towards the nearby building of Smolensk Aviation Plant. Ivanovo Severny air base is also located on the territory of the plant. An experimental flight-testing station is based there.

According to Smolensk Aviation Plant's website, its main activities include serial production of goods developed at the enterprises of the Tactical Missiles Corporation; production of customized Yak-18T and SM-92T aircraft in various modifications; maintenance of Yak-18T aircraft, production of spare parts for Yak-40 and Yak-42 aircraft.

In October 2022, local authorities reported that the Russian Defense Ministry has made many state orders to the plant until 2025, and the volume of its production will quadruple in a few years - from 6 to 24 billion rubles (from about $62 million to $248 million).

Photo ( )

Drones over Sochi and Smolensk, Russia claims a 'repelled attack'
Kateryna Danishevska | 10/1/2023

oday in the morning, unidentified drones flew over the Russian city of Smolensk. The governor of the region stated that the drones attempted to strike the aviation plant in Smolensk.

Drones were also spotted in Sochi in the Krasnodar Krai of Russia. Online reports suggest that a drone or its fragments fell in the airport area, after which smoke was noticed. Russians claim that 14 flights are delayed at Sochi Airport.

At the same time, Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu mentions a "repelled drone attack" and traditionally accuses Ukraine. The Ministry of Defense stated that three drones were shot down in the Smolensk region and one in the Krasnodar Krai...

okt 1, 8:03 am

Russia-Ukraine war live: UK’s plan to train service members in Ukraine makes them ‘legal targets’, says Medvedev
Vivian Ho (now) and Adam Fulton (earlier) | 1 Oct 2023

Britain is looking to move more training and production of military equipment into Ukraine, UK defence secretary Grant Shapps told the Sunday Telegraph. “Particularly in the west of the country, I think the opportunity now is to bring more things ‘in country,’ and not just training but also we’re seeing UK defence firm BAE, for example, move into manufacturing in country,” he said. “I’m keen to see other British companies do their bit as well by doing the same thing. So I think there will be a move to get more training and production in the country,” Shapps said.

okt 1, 3:33 pm

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 1:19 PM · Oct 1, 2023:

Russians are complaining that they were sent without ammunition with rotten rifles to storm the forest belt where two Leopards are stationed.
1:00 ( )

okt 1, 3:50 pm

>148 margd: contd.

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 2:56 PM · Oct 1, 2023:

BREAKING: Rishi Sunak says that Britain has no plans for now to send troops to Ukraine

Sunak is framing Grant Shapps plan as a long-term potential plan to train Ukrainian forces

Based on his wording, which ruled out sending troops to the current conflict, he presumably means that this should occur after Russia's invasion of Ukraine culminates

Redigerat: okt 2, 5:52 am

The Many Lessons of the Ukraine War
Remarks to the East Bay Citizens for Peace

Ambassador Chas W. Freeman, Jr. (USFS, Ret.)
Visiting Scholar, Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, Brown University
The Barrington Library, Barrington, Rhode Island, 26 September 2023

I want to speak to you tonight about Ukraine – what has happened to it and why, how it is likely to emerge from the ordeal to which great power rivalry has subjected it; and what we can learn from this. I do so with some trepidation and a warning to this audience. My talk, like the conflict in Ukraine, is a long and complicated one. It contradicts propaganda that has been very convincing. My talk will offend anyone committed to the official narrative. The way the American media have dealt with the Ukraine war brings to mind a comment by Mark Twain: “The researches of many commentators have already thrown much darkness on this subject, and it is probable that, if they continue, we shall soon know nothing at all about it.”

It is said that, in war, truth is the first casualty. War is typically accompanied by a fog of official lies. No such fog has ever been as thick as in the Ukraine war. While many hundreds of thousands of people have fought and died in Ukraine, the propaganda machines in Brussels, Kyiv, London, Moscow, and Washington have worked overtime to ensure that we take passionate sides, believe what we want to believe, and condemn anyone who questions the narrative we have internalized. No one not on the front lines has any real idea of what has been happening in this war. What we know is only what our governments and other supporters of the war want us to know. And they have developed the bad habit of inhaling their own propaganda, which guarantees delusional policies.

Every government that is a party to the Ukraine War – Kyiv, Moscow, Washington, and other NATO capitals – has been guilty of various degrees of self-deception and blundering misfeasance. The consequences for all have been dire. For Ukraine, they have been catastrophic. A radical rethinking of policy by all concerned is long overdue....

To summarize:

In short, U.S. policy has resulted in great suffering in Ukraine and escalating defense budgets here and in Europe but has failed to weaken or isolate Russia. More of the same will not accomplish either of these oft-stated American objectives. Russia has been educated in how to combat American weapons systems and has developed effective counters to them. It has been militarily strengthened, not weakened. It has been reoriented and freed from Western influence, not isolated.

If the purpose of war is to establish a better peace, this war is not doing that. Ukraine is being eviscerated on the altar of Russophobia. At this point, no one can confidently predict how much of Ukraine or how many Ukrainians will be left when the fighting stops or when and how to stop it. Kyiv just failed to meet more than a fraction of its recruitment goals. Combating Russia to the last Ukrainian was always an odious strategy. But when NATO is about to run out of Ukrainians, it is not just cynical; it is no longer a viable option.

Lessons to be Learned from the Ukraine War

What can we learn from this debacle? It has provided many unwelcome reminders of the basic principles of statecraft.

Wars do not decide who is right. They determine who is left.
The best way to avoid war is to reduce or eliminate the apprehensions and grievances that cause it.
When you refuse to hear, let alone address an aggrieved party’s case for adjustments in your policies toward it, you risk a violent reaction from it.
No one should enter a war without realistic objectives, a strategy to achieve them, and a plan for war termination.
Self-righteousness and bravery are no substitutes for military mass, firepower, and stamina.
In the end, wars are won and lost on the battlefield, not with propaganda inspired by and directed at reinforcing wishful thinking.
What has been lost on the battlefield can seldom, if ever, be recovered at the negotiating table.
When wars cannot be won, it is usually better to seek terms by which to end them than to reinforce strategic failure.
It is time to prioritize saving as much as possible of Ukraine. This war has become existential for it. Ukraine needs diplomatic backing to craft a peace with Russia if its military sacrifices are not to have been in vain. It is being destroyed. It must be rebuilt. The key to preserving Ukraine is to empower and back Kyiv to end the war on the best terms it can obtain, to facilitate the return of its refugees, and to use the EU accession process to advance liberal reforms and institute clean government in a neutral Ukraine.

Unfortunately, as things stand, both Moscow and Washington seem determined to persist in Ukraine’s ongoing destruction. But whatever the outcome of the war, Kyiv and Moscow will eventually have to find a basis for coexistence. Washington needs to support Kyiv in challenging Russia to recognize both the wisdom and the necessity of respect for Ukrainian neutrality and territorial integrity.

Finally, this war should provoke some sober rethinking here, in Moscow, and by NATO of the consequences of diplomacy-free, militarized foreign policy. Had the United States agreed to talk with Moscow, even if it had continued to reject much of what Moscow demanded, Russia would not have invaded Ukraine as it did. Had the West not intervened to prevent Ukraine from ratifying the treaty others helped it agree with Russia at the outset of the war, Ukraine would now be intact and at peace.

This war did not need to take place. Every party to it has lost far more than it has gained. There’s a lot to be learned from what has happened in and to Ukraine. We should study and learn these lessons and take them to heart.

I will add my own single line: If the end can still be achieved, I would rather see a neutral Ukraine which retains Odessa than a NATO-aligned Ukraine which has lost it.

okt 2, 10:33 am

If this war ends with a neutral Ukraine with no air-tight security guarantees from NATO then Putin will just rearm and invade again in a few years

Redigerat: okt 2, 11:55 am

>152 jjwilson61: Then what do you propose? Have the EU deport refugees back to the front lines to serve as cannon fodder? Have NATO intervene directly and blow us all to hell?
In the long run, the war is lost.
Mark my words: either this war is stopped, or it ends like this for Ukraine:
You're right, of course: the latter might be a more stable denouement.

okt 21, 4:53 am

>114 margd: Russia response to intro of former Nazi in Cdn Parliament, contd.

Nazi applauded by Canadian parliament charged by Russia
DW | 20 Oct 2023

...Along with other members of his SS division, {98-year-old Ukrainian war veteran Yaroslav} Hunka killed "at least 500 citizens of the USSR" in the village of Huta Pieniacka, now part of Ukraine, between February 23 and 28, 1944, Russia claims.

...Russia's Investigative Committee said it charged Hunka in absentia with the "genocide of civilians on the territory of the Ukrainian SSR during the Great Patriotic War"..."Among those killed were Jews and Poles. People were shot, burned in residential houses and also in the church"...

The predominantly Ukrainian Galicia Division has been found guilty of war crimes by commissions in Germany and Poland, and historians say its members took part in several massacres.

Russia's statement added that it was considering issuing an international arrest warrant for Hunka, who has sought legal assistance in Canadaas well as Polandand Belarus.