Jamie Moyer: Any chance for the HoF?

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Jamie Moyer: Any chance for the HoF?

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1KromesTomes
dec 16, 2008, 4:55 pm

I can remember when he came up with the Cubs about a million years ago, and now he's got 246 wins and a new two-year deal w/the Phillies ... let's say he wins 25 more over the course of the contract and gets to 270 victories ... Does anyone think that would put him into the Hall of Fame?

2NoLongerAtEase
dec 16, 2008, 6:18 pm

Well, Phil Neikro is in, Bert Blyleven isn't but even Neikro seemed to be kind of a hard sell. I'm thinking of Moyer as I'm thinking of the two mentioned above, very good pitchers with lengthy careers but perhaps not the obvious brilliance of a Koufax. It seems to me that pitchers of this sort need to hit certain milestones if they want to be in, which is why Neikro made it. To my mind, had he retired 15 games short of 300 he'd be a veterans committee pick.

3krolik
dec 17, 2008, 3:34 am

If he can stay healthy for two more years, I think he would be a serious contender for the Hall. A very telling stat is his winning percentage: .571.

This is significantly better than Blyleven or Neikro. Blyleven was solid year after year, a real pro, but at .534, he also lost 250 games. (Moyer hasn't cracked the 200 mark--he's at 185.)

Neikro is marginally better than Blyleven at winning percentage (.537) but the sheer volume of wins (318) was impossible to ignore. (Also lost 274.) Neikro was a hard sell for some people because knuckleballers don't get the same respect, it's not as macho as throwing heat. Jim Bouton had some amusing things to say about that...

4BOB81
dec 17, 2008, 10:33 am

Golly, I sure hope not: I'm still waiting for them to kick Freddie Lindstrom out.

5krolik
dec 17, 2008, 12:09 pm

>4 BOB81:

The Lindstrom example is odd, especially since he was inducted long after his career. I pulled Bill James off the shelf and he doesn't make any case for him. It doesn't seem to be one of those Rabbit Maranville deals, e.g., "you had to be there."

6johnandlisa
dec 17, 2008, 3:00 pm

My memory is that Bill James made a pretty strong case against Lindstrom in the hall. Forget whether it was in the Historical Baseball Abstract or in Politics of Glory.

7BOB81
Redigerat: dec 17, 2008, 11:42 pm

>5 krolik:
It probably is a bad example. Looking at Bert's stats, I'd have to admit that Moyer is more deserving than Blyleven. But how in the world did Blyleven (a 14-12 pitcher who gave up 430 homers) ever get in? He must be a very nice man.

8BOB81
dec 17, 2008, 11:55 pm

Neikro was a hard sell for some people because knuckleballers don't get the same respect, it's not as macho as throwing heat.

There is a certain 13-12 fireballer in the HoF, kind of a longevous version of Kerry Wood; pitched a couple of no-hitters; I won't mention his name.

9NoLongerAtEase
Redigerat: dec 18, 2008, 12:14 am

re: 7

Blyleven isn't in yet, although he's climbed in the BBWAA polls recently. I'm not sure whether he ought to be in. He's certainly a fence sitter if there ever was one. However calling him a 14-12 pitcher doesn't fully capture his early dominance or his tenure on some really bad teams.

However, I think Moyer, unless he plays another five years and makes some of those milestone numbers, will be in a similar boat.

10TeacherDad
dec 18, 2008, 12:24 am

No, no HOF for Moyer, despite looooong career and high totals -- how many seasons was he one of game's best pitchers?

Now Jack Morris on the other hand...

11KromesTomes
dec 18, 2008, 9:59 am

It's been interesting to get this feedback ... for me, the biggest stumbling block to Moyer's election is his ERA ... I just can't imagine a pitcher with a lifetime ERA above 4.00 as a Hall of Famer ... I'll second the Jack Morris mention, though!

12BOB81
Redigerat: dec 18, 2008, 10:32 am

Blyleven isn't in yet

Oops. Another swing-and-a-miss by BOB81.

looooong career and high totals

How about Julio Franco? Better than Lindstrom?

13KromesTomes
dec 18, 2008, 1:31 pm

You know, when I checked this and saw Franco's name highlighted, I thought it was a touchstone for him as an author!

Better than Lindstrom or not, he doesn't belong in ... that would be one of those least common denominator arguments that James and others rail against ... assuming everyone better than the worst HoF member should be in ... Although I always rooted for Franco because in his last few seasons he was one of the few players still older than I was/am ... now I think it's just Moyer and Randy Johnson, and the Unit is only about 2 weeks older than I am.

14BOB81
dec 18, 2008, 4:44 pm

Julio Franco is so old, that when Paul Simon sang about Me And Julio Down By The Schoolyard, he was talking about Franco; totally true story.

15findundercan
jan 1, 2009, 2:56 pm

Blyleven : 118 ERA+ 344 RSAA
Niekro : 115 ERA+ 322 RSAA
Moyer : 106 ERA+

I don't have the current stats for Moyer's RSAA, but he was at 91 in 2005, so he's probably somewhere in the low-to-mid 100s.

Moyer has been very slightly above average for a long time. Blyleven and Niekro are among the top 20 pitchers of the modern era. There is very little comparison between their careers and Moyer's.