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Taking Chances: Winning with Probability av…
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Taking Chances: Winning with Probability (utgåvan 2000)

av John Haigh

MedlemmarRecensionerPopularitetGenomsnittligt betygOmnämnanden
1011208,127 (3.6)1
What are the odds against winning the Lottery, making money in a casino, or backing the right horse? Every day, people make judgements on these matters and face other decisions that rest on their understanding of probability: buying insurance, following medical advice, carrying an umbrella.Yet many of us have a frightening ignorance of how probability works. Taking Chances presents an entertaining and fascinating exploration of probability, revealing traps and fallacies in the field. It describes and analyses a remarkable variety of situations where chance plays a role, includingfootball pools, the Lottery, TV games, sport, cards, roulette, coins, and dice. The book guides the reader round common pitfalls, demonstrates how to make better informed decisions, and shows where the odds can be unexpectedly in your favour. This new edition has been fully updated, and includesinformation on "Who Wants to be a Millionaire?" and "The Weakest Link", plus a new chapter on Probability for Lawyers.… (mer)
Medlem:shortcipher
Titel:Taking Chances: Winning with Probability
Författare:John Haigh
Info:Oxford University Press, USA (2000), Paperback, 344 pages
Samlingar:Ditt bibliotek, Bookshelf A
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Taking Chances: Winning with Probability av John Haigh

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This was not quite the book I was expecting, and it was the more interesting for it. It begins with the type of introduction to probabllity that is common to most popular texts on this subject, but the following chapters each take a deep look at particular games of chance and forms of gambling. They do so in a depth that I've rarely encountered elsewhere, and deal with some modes of gambling that are a relatively modern development. Some of the more unusual topics include a chapter on TV games, such as "The Price Is Right" and "Breakout", and an analysis of Monopoly that goes well beyond considering dice odds and considers the chances of maximising returns taking into account the relative likelihood of landing on different positions on the board (the Go To Jail square means that these aren't all equally likely.) There's also a good analysis of the statistics and odds calculations behind modern commercial bets, such as when the first goal will be score in a particular match or betting on the total score in a match.

The text is hard going at times even for someone with a good educational background in these areas but effort is rewarded. There are tests with each chapter with worked answers at the end of the book, and four useful appendices on basic topics of probability, averages etc for those who need some extra grounding.

This book certainly isn't for everyone but if you have a more than passing interest in the topic, it's well worth reading. ( )
  kevinashley | Oct 29, 2016 |
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What are the odds against winning the Lottery, making money in a casino, or backing the right horse? Every day, people make judgements on these matters and face other decisions that rest on their understanding of probability: buying insurance, following medical advice, carrying an umbrella.Yet many of us have a frightening ignorance of how probability works. Taking Chances presents an entertaining and fascinating exploration of probability, revealing traps and fallacies in the field. It describes and analyses a remarkable variety of situations where chance plays a role, includingfootball pools, the Lottery, TV games, sport, cards, roulette, coins, and dice. The book guides the reader round common pitfalls, demonstrates how to make better informed decisions, and shows where the odds can be unexpectedly in your favour. This new edition has been fully updated, and includesinformation on "Who Wants to be a Millionaire?" and "The Weakest Link", plus a new chapter on Probability for Lawyers.

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