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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of…
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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (urspr publ 2001; utgåvan 2007)

av Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Serier: Incerto (1)

MedlemmarRecensionerPopularitetGenomsnittligt betygOmnämnanden
3,430512,672 (3.89)30
This work has shaken Wall Street thanks to its contention that much of what people perceive as skill playing the markets is often nothing more than luck.
Medlem:mmanta
Titel:Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
Författare:Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Info:Penguin (2007), Paperback, 368 pages
Samlingar:Ditt bibliotek
Betyg:*****
Taggar:Ingen/inga

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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets av Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2001)

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» Se även 30 omnämnanden

Visa 1-5 av 51 (nästa | visa alla)
Informed view of randomness and how we oftentimes dramatically disregard it. Author is quite cynical, which was somewhat distasteful during the read, but his points are well taken and thought provoking. Recommend. ( )
  bsmashers | Aug 1, 2020 |
All of Taleb's books are stunningly original, iconoclastic and useful. Worth reading!

On a side note: "THE FOOL" remains my favourite tarot card because of its cool symbolism that I can identify with 🐐🐬🐙 ( )
  AlexejGerstmaier | May 26, 2020 |
Excellent. Recommended. ( )
  ErrantRuminant | Mar 13, 2020 |
Interesting idea badly executed. So badly, in fact, I was left wondering who it was written for; it was neither coherent enough for an academic audience nor clear enough for a general one. The book is suffused with trivial errors of fact and usage, to the point where no statement (trivial or otherwise) retains any credibility. It is filled with the most glaring contradictions: the author will condemn an act on one page and commit it on the next, without any appreciable shred of self-awareness. This bizarrely paradoxical presentation is further exacerbated by the author's own explicit claims to possess the very self-awareness which is no where in evidence.

Lastly, I should note that this is a claim about the text, not the author. He may very well be a genius-wizard of the highest of high orders. Whether this is or is not the case, this book conceals it very well. His fans, however, are demonstrably fools. They admire the book based not on its contents, but on the author's own financial successes, while the book itself makes precisely the opposite point
--that admiring people who happen to be successful without regard to their underlying thinking is itself foolish.

Ug, business majors.... ( )
  ralphpalm | Nov 11, 2019 |
I think I picked this up from our building's swap shelves. It's an advance uncorrected proof, and wow does it need corrections. I hope a copy editor and/or the author got hold of this in galley and fixed the grammar, typos, etc. and made sure the charts showed up!

Talib, of course, wrote [The Black Swan] to describe the same theme of randomness, or the impact of the improbable, and he makes his living trading derivatives with just that in mind. This book is almost a screed against what he sees as the refusal of economists and traders to see the folly of their quest for patterns, even in the face of financial disaster. It's a little like getting into an Uber with someone determined to convert you to his religion. I felt at once mesmerized and battered.

Of course, it is true that people don't understand statistics, and don't see how their biases and emotions make it hard to understand true risk. Talib is searching for a scientific appreciation of risk to balance those biases and emotions. Going back to the image of a black swan, he explains that just because no European had seen a black swan did not make the statement 'All swans are white' true. Understanding that rules must be refutable goes hand in hand with his emphasis on randomness, on clarity between correlation and causation, sorely lacking today.

I read it fast, which is probably not the ideal approach. We learn a lot about Talib, at least what he wants us to learn, from his own perspective, and a lot about how snarky, insulting, and uncompromising he can be when randomness is discounted. Some of it is even fun. ( )
  ffortsa | May 11, 2019 |
Visa 1-5 av 51 (nästa | visa alla)
The lesson here for investors is powerful and frightening. How much can you rely on the track records of investment advisers, mutual fund managers, newspaper columnists, or even the market as a whole in making decisions about your investment portfolio? Not nearly as much as you probably think.

 

» Lägg till fler författare (10 möjliga)

Författarens namnRollTyp av författareVerk?Status
Nassim Nicholas Talebprimär författarealla utgåvorberäknat
Sergio, ChristopherOmslagsformgivaremedförfattarevissa utgåvorbekräftat
Welch, ChrisFormgivaremedförfattarevissa utgåvorbekräftat
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This book is the synthesis of, on one hand, the no-nonsense practitioner of uncertainty who spent his professional life trying to resist being fooled by randomness and trick the emotions associated with probabilistic outcomes and, on the other, the aesthetically obsessed, literature-loving human being willing to be fooled by any form of nonsense that is polished, refined, original, and tasteful.
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This work has shaken Wall Street thanks to its contention that much of what people perceive as skill playing the markets is often nothing more than luck.

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